'Bold Thinking'

The fourth report in the ANZ insight series, ‘Bold Thinking: Imagining PNG in the Asian Century’ was released on 15 October 2013.

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‘Bold Thinking’ details the significant opportunities available to PNG in natural resources, agriculture and infrastructure as a result of the shift in global economic growth to Asia. It was researched and completed for ANZ by Port Jackson Partners.

Key findings

  • Demand for energy, metals, wood products and high-quality foodstuffs will increase as the Asian Century unfolds.
  • Balanced growth across resources, infrastructure and agriculture is needed to ensure the ongoing and robust development of a resilient PNG economy which captures the benefits of the Asian Century. Linkages among major sectors encourage and reward simultaneous growth.
  • The resources sector in PNG will have a pre-eminent initial role in generating the wealth needed to invest in infrastructure and hence support agricultural development in the future. As a result, agriculture will be a long-term driver of economic activity, and can drive long-lasting employment growth.
  • PNG has the opportunity to grow resource sector export revenues to four to six times current levels, or US$23 billion to US$36 billion by 2030, if it can deliver its current projects then build upon them to maintain market share.
  • Improved infrastructure is the key to translating resources sector wealth into broader economic growth.
  • PNG has set itself ambitious targets for infrastructure improvement and improved delivery will be needed if these are to be achieved at a manageable cost and within a reasonable time.
  • From 2006 to 2030, it is estimated that half of global growth in food demand will come from Asia.
  • The Development Strategic Plan’s 2030 volume targets imply export revenues for palm oil, coffee and cocoa of US$3.5billion in 2030, a five-fold increase from 2010 export levels at long-term prices.
  • PNG has the opportunity to improve relationships with investors and reinforce the trust all parties must share in project agreements.
  • There are a number of national-level issues which deserve attention in PNG. One such issue is the need to build strong institutions.
  • The proposed PNG Sovereign Wealth Fund can help minimise the effects of the ‘resources curse’ and promote balanced economic development.
  • Reorienting government and institutional focus towards the opportunity being created by Asia will bring many benefits.
  • The Asian Century enables PNG to see itself through a very different lens.
  • PNG can secure its share of resource projects if it moves resolutely to do so – global competition for capital notwithstanding.
  • ‘Bold thinking’ about coordinating infrastructure and maximising spill overs to the wider economy will promise broader growth, especially in agriculture, to sustain the economy long into the future.

Related information

  • Download the 'Bold Thinking' report or request a hard copy by emailing  
  • Watch the video interview with Vishnu Mohan, ANZ CEO PNG, and Grant Mitchell, report author and Director of Port Jackson Partners. October 2013​

The views and opinions expressed in this communication are those of the author and may not necessarily state or reflect those of ANZ.