Australian jobs ads maintain upward momentum

Job advertisements rose a further 1.3 per cent month on month in January to record their eighth consecutive monthly rise (in seasonally adjusted terms). Job ads have now trended higher for 15 consecutive months and are up 10 per cent over the year to January.

"In particular, the relative strength of NSW job ads stands out, and is consistent with other indicators highlighting the state’s outperformance."

The continued strength in January was driven by internet job ads, which rose 1.5 per cent month on month. In annual terms, internet job ads are running at 14.8 per cent year on year, the fastest rate since April 2011. This contrasts with newspaper job ads which declined by 6.7 per cent month on month to be down 23.8 per cent year on year. The pace of deterioration in newspaper job ads appears to have stepped up in recent months, although this series is particularly volatile and makes up only 3 per cent of overall ANZ job ads.

Newspaper job ads are trending down in all states and territories with the exception of NSW, with recent weakness in WA and the NT particularly pronounced.  

In particular, the relative strength of NSW job ads stands out, and is consistent with other indicators highlighting the state’s outperformance. While we remain cautious about interpretation of the official labour market data, the recent stabilisation in the unemployment rate would appear a little more consistent with recent trends in ANZ job advertisements.

A gap between job ads and the official data remains however, most likely reflecting a higher rate of retrenchments in industries such as manufacturing and resources, which suggests that overall labour demand is struggling to keep pace with the flow of new workers into the economy. We do not expect a significant change in this dynamic amidst below trend economic growth outcomes, with a further rise in the unemployment rate to 6.5 per cent through 2015.