Together, these countries already account for around 80 per cent of New Zealand’s bilateral trade and over 80 per cent of total exports within Asia, demonstrating exporters are already doing a good job.
China will no doubt continue to be a focal point with increasing business links and two-way investment. However, we think Japan is an understated opportunity. Currently a highly protected and mature market, Japan could attract a substantial rise in exports as market access improves following (we hope) the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement coming into force.
Our top picks for potential ‘up-and-comer’ markets, where the next wave of growth might come from, include Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam, as well as lesser known markets such as Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Armenia.
These next-tier countries could easily shift up our ranking and this is where real opportunity exists. While urbanisation and income levels evolve slowly, other factors such as trade barriers and supply and cool-chain development can change rapidly.
If we consider how quickly key existing barriers have been dismantled in other countries, then the key markets to watch over the next 5-10 years are Japan, Thailand and Indonesia.
The report shows opportunities exist well beyond the most obvious places for those with the vision and courage to take the calculated risks required in developing new markets.
Cameron Bagrie is Chief Economist and Con Williams an Agri Economist at ANZ New Zealand
The report, New Horizons: Alternative Asian Markets, is available here.