New Zealand’s exports to ASEAN New Zealand’s exports to ASEAN have grown strongly over the past 25 years, at roughly 10 per cent a year on average.
Food and other agriculture products account for around 80 per cent of New Zealand’s goods exports to ASEAN – dairy alone represents 55 per cent.
New Zealand’s share of ASEAN’s overall agriculture imports is just 3 to 4 per cent but this share has been broadly stable over time and, as described earlier, is in contrast to Australia’s share which has been falling.
Looking forward, New Zealand appears well placed to benefit from increased demand for food and agriculture from ASEAN’s rising middle class.
ANZ’s baseline projections envisage New Zealand’s share of ASEAN’s soft commodity exports rising modestly by 2025.
Growth in soft commodity exports of nearly 5 per cent a year on average is projected over that period, taking New Zealand’s agricultural exports to ASEAN to around $US5.5 billion from a little more than $US3 billion in 2013.
This seems eminently achievable and the fact near-double digit growth has been recorded for some time, faster growth than our baseline may occur.
Assuming New Zealand records similar growth in non-agricultural exports to ASEAN (which it broadly has in the past) ANZ’s baseline projection is for total exports to the region to rise to around $US7 billion by 2025.