According to UNPOP estimates, Hong Kong, China, Thailand, and South Korea have all seen their working age populations decline in absolute terms within the last three years. This puts them firmly in the post-dividend stage.
In the late-dividend stage are Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia. In Vietnam’s case, it entered the late dividend stage in 2014 when the median age was 30 years. With an average fertility rate of 1.96 children per woman, Vietnam has around 21 years left before it enters the post dividend stage.
Meanwhile, Malaysia’s median age is still young at 28.5 years. Yet, its share of working age population will start to decline in 2019. Its fertility rate of 1.94 is below the replacement rate of 2.1. Even so, the window to transition to the post-dividend stage is long, at almost 30 years.
Even the ‘darlings’ of demographers like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which are classified as early-dividend economies, cannot just merely sit back and allow the demographic dividend to do the heavy lifting.