03 Jun 2021
Victoria’s latest lockdown has pushed state-wide weekend spending down 40 per cent while the spending impact of Sydney’s lockdown was around 30 per cent for the weekends - before new lockdown rules on 19 July.
Sydney spending will likely slow further as intensified and ongoing lockdown conditions hit the data.
"It’s likely the impacts on Sydney’s spending will follow suit as the stricter lockdown restrictions flow through to the data.”
Victoria’s initially stricter lockdown seems to be behind the larger spending impact which is almost identical to spending impacts from the fourth lockdown in May.
It’s likely the impacts on Sydney’s spending will follow suit as the stricter lockdown restrictions flow through to the data.
ANZ Research expects Victoria’s spending to follow the same pattern as its fourth lockdown with an outperformance in spending right after the lockdown ends as households make up for lost time.
While the Sydney lockdown has so far led to a smaller impact per weekend, the risk of economic scarring increases as the lockdown intensifies and extends.
If Sydney’s lockdown starts to impact employment, there may be a more muted spending recovery.
National spending has been impacted by the lockdowns although spending outside New South Wales and Victoria looks broadly stable. South Australia’s lockdown will clearly change this.
Lockdowns have a national impact because of the large number of people affected but that hasn’t stopped non-lockdown states from spending as normal.
Adelaide Timbrell is Economist and David Plank is Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
The views and opinions expressed in this communication are those of the author and may not necessarily state or reflect those of ANZ.
03 Jun 2021
28 Jun 2021