Meanwhile, we expect at least 50,000 students from China to arrive in Australia following the Chinese government’s decision to ban students from studying online at foreign universities. We’re less optimistic about a full recovery of Chinese visitors to Australia in 2023, particularly while travel is so expensive.
“China’s reopening will boost Australia’s service exports, lifting Australia’s economic growth by 0.4 percentage points over the next two years.”
And there’s less upside for Australia’s goods exports to China but the pick-up in industrial activity will support LNG exports. We expect China’s property sector woes to continue which will limit any upside for iron ore.
There has also been talk of the Chinese government unwinding some of its trade measures against Australian exports but the impact of any reversal is likely to be modest – and mostly price-driven.