IN CHARTS: locking down Australian emissions

Catherine Birch

Senior Economist, ANZ

Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions declined 1.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2021 (seasonally adjusted, weather normalised), according to the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI).

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“Transport emissions were the biggest contributor to the decline, down 15.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter as travel and movement were again curtailed.”

This was during the extended Delta lockdowns across New South Wales, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory. It was the first quarterly fall since the second quarter of 2020, during the national lockdown.

Transport emissions were the biggest contributor to the decline, down 15.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter as travel and movement were again curtailed.

Electricity emissions were also down 3.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter as renewable generation increased. ANZ Research’s recent infrastructure update shows electricity sector investment (largely in renewable generation and transmission and storage infrastructure) has started to lift again and the solid investment outlook will help renewables further increase as a share of the generation mix.

Agriculture emissions rose 3.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter with the industry’s value-added up 36.5 per cent year-on-year as it continued to recover from drought.

Stationary energy excluding electricity rose 5.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter to a record quarterly high, with increased liquefied natural gas production a key driver of these emissions. Fugitive emissions lifted 4.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

The preliminary estimate for the fourth quarter of 2021 shows a further fall of 1.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter. While sector data will not be available until late May, a larger than usual fourth quarter drop in electricity emissions appears to be a key driver.

Catherine Birch is Senior Economist at ANZ

The views and opinions expressed in this communication are those of the author and may not necessarily state or reflect those of ANZ.