14 May 2019
Household budget pressures: it’s a long way to the shop
Adelaide Timbrell & David Plank |
Australian households are moving their spending away from retail to other goods and services, says ANZ Research.
Economy
10 May 2019
Machine learning: change the way you think
Shane White | Content Manager - Institutional, ANZ
Increasing productivity returns and solving big problems are just some of the benefits of machine-learning algorithms.
26 Apr 2019
Why bother surcharging?
Steve Worthington | Professor at Swinburne University
Regulation around surcharging keeps changing and has become more confusing for retailers and consumers alike.
24 Apr 2019
VIDEO: it’s a steep learning curve on yield
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
Assessments of the US yield curve risk being too dogmatic, says ANZ Chief Economist.
18 Apr 2019
China-US tensions: the view from Japan
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
Escalating US-China tensions have led to a new type of cold war, according to a leading Japanese academic.
16 Apr 2019
The Asian Century: more than just China
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Asian economies are continuing to accelerate. So is Australia becoming an accidental geographic beneficiary?
15 Apr 2019
Q&A: the Asian century never ended
Shane White | Content Manager - Institutional, ANZ
ANZ’s Farhan Faruqui outlines the bank’s plans in an Asian region still brimming with opportunity for business.
05 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: Labor’s alternative
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
Some were disappointed with the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget, does this simply reflect the focus on tax cuts?
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
bluenotes presents comprehensive coverage of the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget.
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: back to black with an election to come
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
As expected, cuts to personal income taxes and big infrastructure spending dominated the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget.
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: reaching peak budget
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
Structural changes occurring in Australia are starting to impact the budget more forcefully, particularly demographic changes.
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: the graphic truth
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
Tax, outlook, health, infrastructure, the key numbers of Federal Budget in pictures.
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: small business perks
Isaac Rankin | Managing Director - Commercial, ANZ
Tax write-offs and funding for apprenticeships are some of the promises for SMEs from the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget.
28 Mar 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: tax relief and congestion busting
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Personal income tax cuts and new infrastructure spending set to be announced in the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget.
12 Mar 2019
China under the spotlight
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China’s trade war with the US has highlighted areas of improvement for its future economy.
05 Mar 2019
Stateometer: softening momentum spreads through the east coast
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
Softening economic momentum suggests credit tightness is beginning to hit smaller states.
01 Mar 2019
INFOGRAPHIC: LGBTIQ+ rights across the globe
Melissa Currie | Visual Production Editor, bluenotes
It seems the world still has a way to go for LGBTIQ+ rights and employment discrimination.
28 Feb 2019
Bishop: an uncertain world needs leadership not populism
Shane White | Content Manager - Institutional, ANZ
Outgoing MP and Former Australian Foreign Minister discusses the importance of strong leadership in times of global upheaval.
26 Feb 2019
Investors prepare for challenging year
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
Sharemarkets may have rebounded early but the market volatility of 2018 is expected to continue this year.
25 Feb 2019
The economics of elections
David Plank & Bansi Madhavani | Head of Australian Economics & Economist, ANZ
People often think the economy slows as elections get close - the reality is more complicated.
14 Feb 2019
Asia: Not all in the same boat
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
Concern about Asia’s economy is growing but positive signs exist.
05 Feb 2019
Is Asia facing further downside risk?
Irene Cheung & Raymond Yeung | Senior Strategist, Asia & Chief Economist, Greater China, ANZ
China manufacturing is as weak as it has been for years. How will the rest of Asia hold up?
29 Jan 2019
ASEAN: economic community can step up
Luke Hunt | Journalist & Asian correspondent
Further liberalisation is needed within the ASEAN Economic Community for future growth.
24 Jan 2019
NZ truckometer: lower revs
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
Trucks and cars can tell you a lot about the economy – and NZ might be losing some grunt.
14 Jan 2019
Aus residential property: little sign of optimism
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
The latest ANZ-Property Council data shows confidence is now at its lowest level since the survey commenced in 2011.
10 Jan 2019
Asia: not so bleak after all
Sanjay Mathur | Chief Economist Southeast Asia & India, ANZ
The scope for further shocks to financial markets hitting Asia’s economic bottom line has shrunk.
14 Dec 2018
Spreading the gospel of B2R
Peter Thomas | State Director, Property – Business & Private Banking, ANZ
Innovative property models like B2R could change the market – if the word gets out.
12 Dec 2018
The shifting power balance in housing
Jo Masters & Richard Yetsenga | Former Senior Economist & Chief Economist, ANZ
Both of the key drivers of house prices have now pretty much hit their limits.
07 Dec 2018
G20, the US and China: omens not good
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The dust has settled on a melodramatic G20 summit in Buenos Aires with trade and tariffs hitting a speed bump.
05 Dec 2018
South east Asia’s infinite capacity for surprise
Greg Earl | Writer, editor and consultant
It's not just China. South east Asia’s growth is becoming impossible to ignore and it’s happening at Australia’s front door.
30 Nov 2018
Why Chinese exports are not going to collapse
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
The US-China relationship (or lack thereof) continues to make headlines with trade and tariffs a key focus.
28 Nov 2018
Q&A: the way forward for the US & China
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
ESM Goh Chok Tong chats about Trump, the kind of China the world wants to see and Singapore’s next PM.
27 Nov 2018
How to close the trillion-dollar trade-finance gap
Mark Evans | Managing Director Transaction Banking, ANZ
Businesses can’t access the capital they need to grow. Here’s why – and what can be done to solve the problem.
26 Nov 2018
Powering PNG
Nick Easingwood & Mark Baker | Director – Project and Export Finance & MD PNG, ANZ
New international partnership hopes to assist in developing a reliable energy supply for Papua New Guinea.
21 Nov 2018
Stateometer: housing trouble
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
Continued weakness in Australia’s residential property markets helped dampen economic growth in the September quarter.
14 Nov 2018
Goh on China, the US & a looming Thucydides trap
Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong | Former Prime Minister of Singapore
The question is no longer if China & the US will collide - but when and what form it will take.
13 Nov 2018
What’s ahead for markets after the US elections?
Mark Rider & Shane Lee | Chief Investment Officer & Asset Allocation Strategist at ANZ
Complications mean the implications of this result will be felt well into the long term.
09 Nov 2018
A tale of five cities
Daniel Gradwell & Brad Williamson | Senior Economist & State Director, Property – Business & Private Banking, ANZ
Property sentiment is tanking – but look outside NSW & Victoria and the story is a little different.
07 Nov 2018
New world order: trading up
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The intangibles of an agreement drawing Australia and its neighbours closer may prove the biggest benefit.
29 Oct 2018
Australia's China exposure is overexposed
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
Australia is exposed to China but not singularly exposed.
19 Oct 2018
The ASEAN opportunity continues to excel
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
The scale of the ASEAN opportunity is still often underestimated by Australian business.
12 Oct 2018
Slim Secret’s secrets to China
Mark Hand | Group Executive, Australia Business and Private Bank, ANZ
Australian health snack brand Slim Secrets made it big by helping Chinese consumers stay small.
11 Oct 2018
Down, down, sentiment is down
Daniel Gradwell | Senior Economist, ANZ
Sentiment in the residential property segment has fallen to the lowest level since 2012.
11 Oct 2018
New world order: stuck in the middle with Trump
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The US-China trade war will not be good for Australia – particularly the agribusiness sector.
10 Oct 2018
The quick (and the rest) in treasury
Farhan Faruqui | Group Executive International, ANZ
The rapidly evolving financial landscape is ensuring the shift from operational treasury to strategic treasury is virtually complete.
04 Oct 2018
NZ households: building buffers but still vulnerable
Liz Kendall | Senior New Zealand Economist at ANZ
Since 2008, household debt in NZ has remained elevated. But households have been building their equity buffers.
04 Oct 2018
Construction concern
Daniel Gradwell and Joanne Masters | Senior Economists at ANZ Research
Housing work under construction will support the market in the near term but the outlook for 2020 is darker.
04 Oct 2018
What does success look like in housing policy?
Joanne Masters & Richard Yetsenga | Senior Economist & Chief Economist, ANZ
Improving housing affordability is important but not everyone will (or should) own a home. Choice is an overlooked factor in the debate.
02 Oct 2018
NZ’s productivity problem
Tony Field | bluenotes contributor
NZ businesses are being urged to invest in innovation to boost their productivity.
02 Oct 2018
The opportunities of Malaysia’s nation building
Brett Stevens | Commissioner for Victoria to Southeast Asia
Malaysia’s political shakeup highlights Southeast Asia infrastructure opportunities.
02 Oct 2018
Housing is weak but it won’t last forever
Daniel Gradwell and Joanne Masters | Senior Economists at ANZ Research
It’s tough out there but the outlook for eventual stabilisation remains on track, ANZ Research suggests.
01 Oct 2018
There’s more to China than Beijing
Nick Henderson | Director, Asialink Business’ China Practice
China’s second-tier urban centres may be ‘smaller’ by China’s standards but have markets larger than some countries.
24 Sep 2018
How to cut the red tape hurting super savers
Kevin Davis & Rodney Maddock | Professors, Australian Centre for Financial Studies, Monash University
The unintended consequences of bank regulation unnecessarily short-changes super savers – but there’s a relatively low-cost fix.
21 Sep 2018
LONGREAD: the silicon Silk Road
Farhan Faruqui | Group Executive International, ANZ
Globalisation and changing demographics are fundamentally transforming the structure of trade.
19 Sep 2018
It could have been worse
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
The global economy survived a crisis, Australia dodged a recession, Wall St bankers were bailed out. Not everyone was happy with the response but what else should have been done?
13 Sep 2018
The other side of the infrastructure boom
Daniel Gradwell | Senior Economist, ANZ
Australia’s $120bn in construction projects a boon for the economy but rising cost pressures a real risk.
12 Sep 2018
LONGREAD: how the pacific six punch above their weight
Kishti Sen & Tom Kenny | International Economist & Senior International Economist, ANZ
Pacific region set to catch spillover from prosperous Asia; foreign aid, exports & remittances key growth drivers.
12 Sep 2018
Lessons learned (& forgotten) from the crisis
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
The Australian financial system endured the GFC as well as any in the world. What happened?
11 Sep 2018
A tale of two sectors in NZ
Antony Buick-Constable | Acting CEO, New Zealand Bankers’ Association
Far from stepping back banks are backing the construction industry during the building boom.
10 Sep 2018
New world order: the US’ missing APAC ‘pivot’
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Whatever happened to America’s turn toward the Asia Pacific?
05 Sep 2018
India will solve its banking crisis – but what happens then?
Richard Yetsenga & Sanjay Mathur | Chief Economist & Chief Economist, SE Asia & India, ANZ
India’s troubles shall pass – but don’t assume lending will return with vigour in quick succession.
27 Aug 2018
NZ housing: snakes and ladders
Elizabeth Kendall | Senior Economist, ANZ NZ
Are New Zealand’s ongoing high prices in the housing market harming productivity?
27 Aug 2018
Vietnam: a 20 year growth story
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
Positive growth outlook for Vietnam as it continues to attract inward foreign direct investment.
24 Aug 2018
Tougher times: how the drought is impacting GDP
Felicity Emmett | Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
Australian farmers are currently experiencing the most serious drought since 2003 and it’s beginning to impact GDP.
23 Aug 2018
The 25 million person housing problem
Daniel Gradwell | Senior Economist, ANZ
Australia’s population has just tipped 25 million – so what does this mean for the housing market?
23 Aug 2018
Stateometer: cooling down
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
The economy’s momentum slowed into Autumn and Winter this quarter, data shows.
21 Aug 2018
Soaking up supply in the Sunshine state
Joanne Masters & Richard Yetsenga | Senior Economist & Chief Economist, ANZ
The focus of Australia’s national housing market has long been Sydney and Melbourne, but things are playing out differently in Brisbane.
20 Aug 2018
China dials back on debt
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The rapid growth in debt has now slowed in China. What’s next?
14 Aug 2018
Build to rent? Not quite yet
David Oudshoorn | State Director, Property – Business & Private Banking, ANZ
While the build to rent model has a lot of promise, does it have what it takes to compete with the Australian Dream of owning a home?
13 Aug 2018
House prices? Let me google that for you
Jo Masters, Giulia Lavinia Specchia & David Plank | Senior Economist, FX Strategist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
The credit squeeze is affecting house prices, but a new indicator from ANZ suggests a stabilisation could be on the way.
10 Aug 2018
Māori business: a driving force in NZ’s economy
Siobhan Enright | bluenotes contributor
Māori businesses are booming and there’s a lot to be learnt from them.
10 Aug 2018
Pakihi Māori: he wāhanga nui i roto i te ōhanga o Aotearoa
Siobhan Enright | bluenotes contributor
Kei te puāwai ngā pakihi Māori, ā, he nui ngā akoranga ka puta i a rātau.
10 Aug 2018
New world order: a hard place
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Washington’s ability to enforce its Iranian sanctions regime globally will meet significant resistance.
09 Aug 2018
How Australia works
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
The HILDA Survey data casts a light on how Australians are coping - or not coping - with their household and economic situations.
08 Aug 2018
Japan’s point of no return
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
There’s a laundry list of countries hoping Japan has a winning game plan for its ageing population.
07 Aug 2018
INFOGRAPHIC: a sharp right toward the future
Tim Suffield & Graham Kerr | Associate Director, Client Insights and Solutions & State Director, Emerging Corporate, ANZ
Is road transport in Australia turning the corner? We take an interactive look at the sector.
06 Aug 2018
Another winter of discontent in NZ?
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
Will falling business confidence derail near-term GDP growth? It depends...
03 Aug 2018
Taking control on energy
Luke Menzel | CEO, Energy Efficiency Council Australia
Gas prices are skyrocketing and gas intensive manufacturers are bearing the brunt. There are ways to take back control – here’s how.
30 Jul 2018
Commodities & the trade war in 10 charts
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
We’re told trade wars are easy to win but that doesn’t mean there is no collateral damage.
26 Jul 2018
Australia’s red card for energy efficiency
Luke Menzel | CEO, Energy Efficiency Council Australia
Two pieces of bad news for Australia in June, one hitting the headlines but the other more worrying for the long term.
20 Jul 2018
Shake off any rate cut ideas in NZ
Philip Borkin | Senior Economist, ANZ
NZ’s latest CPI suggests no rate cuts are around the corner – and so does the Taylor Rule.
17 Jul 2018
Down by the GBA
Ivy Au Yeung | Chief Executive Officer ANZ Hong Kong
China’s greater bay area opens huge opportunities for faster growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
12 Jul 2018
Is the Australian housing market over the hill?
Daniel Gradwell & David Plank | Economist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
Confidence in Australia’s housing market has fallen sharply according to the newest ANZ-PCA report.
12 Jul 2018
bluenotes debate: the renewable future
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
We chat to a panel of experts about the future slate for renewable energy in Australia.
10 Jul 2018
Risk, football and picking winners
Didier Magloire | Global Head of Financial Institutions, Sovereign & Country Risk Management, ANZ
Building a predicative model for football tournament is not hugely different from assessing financial services risk, it turns out.
09 Jul 2018
New world order: on the precipice of a trade war
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
It’s undeniable growth will be affected by any disruption to global trade.
09 Jul 2018
Building Fiji’s future
Kishti Sen & Tom Kenny | International Economist & Senior International Economist, ANZ
Fiji’s latest National Budget has a strong focus on infrastructure spending.
06 Jul 2018
Why does economic progress of Australia’s women keep stalling?
Bianca Hartge-Hazelman | Founder, Financy Women’s Index
Lingering debate still exists as to whether the economic progress of women is needed at all. One expert explains why this is plainly wrong.
05 Jul 2018
The economist vs the machine
Jack Chambers & David Plank | Economist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
Big data is playing an increasing role in economic analysis – but new research suggests robots won’t be replacing economists just yet.
04 Jul 2018
Australian housing: markets within markets
Daniel Gradwell | Senior Economist, ANZ
Housing prices may be cooling but things may not all be as they seem if you look a little closer.
03 Jul 2018
The upside of Trump’s trade trials - yes, upside
Alan Mitchell | Former economics editor of The Australian Financial Review
Keep calm as Trump carries on: current uncertainty is a good reminder of the importance of supporting free trade.
29 Jun 2018
Listen up: what the yield curve has to say
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The state of the yield curve is beginning to dominate conversations about the market. Here’s what it means.
28 Jun 2018
Let’s not waste time on the why
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
As the spotlight falls on the US yield curve, ANZ Research looks at what this means for credit risk.
28 Jun 2018
NZ foreign buyers: going, going, gone
Elizabeth Kendall | Senior Economist, ANZ NZ
Will proposed amendments to NZ’s foreign buyer rules fix the housing problem or create new issues?
27 Jun 2018
PODCAST: both sides of price transparency
Richard Grayson | Head of Health, Business and Private Banking, ANZ
Transparency around healthcare prices could have an unintentional effect, expert suggests.
26 Jun 2018
Cash and the black economy
Steve Worthington | Professor at Swinburne University
Much has been written about Australia’s move to a cashless society, do the numbers really stack up?
20 Jun 2018
Growing pains in the health sector
Richard Grayson | Head of Health, Business and Private Banking, ANZ
The outlook is good for medical specialists but median hourly earnings are increasing slower than the benchmark.
19 Jun 2018
The bright new dawn for Timor-Leste
Andrew Young | CEO Timor-Leste, ANZ
Resolution of government impasse paves way for further growth in Pacific-island nation.
19 Jun 2018
Tighter times in property
Daniel Gradwell and Joanne Masters | Senior Economists at ANZ Research
Australia’s housing market has proven less resilient than anticipated, and further price falls are likely.
15 Jun 2018
Fiji’s good run continues
Kishti Sen & Tom Kenny | International Economist & Senior International Economist, ANZ
Despite frequent shocks from natural disasters, Fiji’s economy is continuing to grow.
12 Jun 2018
How much longer can this go on?
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
ANZ Wealth’s CIO looks at predictions for a volatile market this quarter.
07 Jun 2018
IN CHARTS: the outlook for gold, LNG & oil
Daniel Hynes & Soni Kumari | Senior Commodities Analyst & Commodities Strategist, ANZ
China’s green shift keeps driving LNG demand; gold to return as safe haven.
06 Jun 2018
The digital sun is rising in south east Asia
Donna Webster | Director of Capability Development, Asialink Business
The digital economy is transforming every aspect of social and business life in ASEAN regions.
05 Jun 2018
NZ household debt in perspective
Miles Workman | NZ economist, ANZ
High levels of household debt in NZ are manageable because interest rates are low – for now.
31 May 2018
What the FIRB data really means
Daniel Gradwell | Senior Economist, ANZ
Recent data from the FIRB have shifted the discussion on foreign housing demand in Australia. Here’s what’s really going on.
31 May 2018
NZ’s super super problem
Miles Workman & Sharon Zollner | Economist & Chief Economist, ANZ NZ
Are we all just choosing to turn a blind eye on NZ’s unsustainable superannuation system?
30 May 2018
The reforms SA business owners need
Alan Read | SA Corporate Agriculture Director, ANZ
We chat with a panel of experts on the impact of South Australia’s state budget on business conditions in the region.
25 May 2018
ZTE & China’s electronics battlefield
Raymond Yeung & Kaushik Baidya | Chief Economist Greater China & Economist, ANZ
ZTE incident will surely spur China’s domestic chip production and R&D activity.
23 May 2018
Stateometer: housing drags on key state
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
Growth in NSW decelerates and population stats point to house prices; Vic, SA and Qld accelerate.
18 May 2018
Australia – what’s the plan?
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
Missing from the 2018 budget was an overall sense of narrative – something the country will need amid coming uncertainty.
17 May 2018
NZ Budget18: no surprises
Miles Workman & Sharon Zollner | Economist & Chief Economist, ANZ NZ
Prudent pragmatism is the order of the day in New Zealand.
14 May 2018
BUDGET 2018: here’s to our health
Richard Grayson | Head of Health, Business and Private Banking, ANZ
Australia’s federal government has unveiled a suite of budget measures which should help ease the transition to an ageing population.
10 May 2018
The ten biggest Twitter themes of #Budget18
Shane White | Content Manager - Institutional, ANZ
We share a brief look at the biggest themes on Twitter from #Budget2018.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018, in pictures
Joanne Masters | Former Senior Economist, ANZ
We’ve broken down the budget into an easily digestible visual format.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018: five key takeaways for SMEs
Guy Mendelson | Portfolio Lead - Business Owners, ANZ
More support, opportunities and relief highlight the benefits for Australian small-business owners from the 2018 budget.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018, in tweets
Shane White | Content Manager - Institutional, ANZ
See what some of Australia’s most-respected commentators said on Twitter in the aftermath of #Budget2018.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018: does no harm
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
Australia’s better-than-expected tax revenues haven’t failed to disappoint, ANZ’s Chief Economist says on video.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018: wealthy, healthy & prizes
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
This year’s budget has some for the household wallet, some for health and some for the government’s piggy bank.
08 May 2018
Australian budget 2018: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
bluenotes presents comprehensive coverage of the 2018-19 Australian federal budget.
08 May 2018
NZ’s moo-t point on the environment
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
New Zealand faces many challenges to ensure they reach their emissions targets by 2050.
07 May 2018
China’s not-so-secret competitiveness weapon
Betty Wang & Raymond Yeung | Senior China Economist & Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is a recipe for China’s global integration plan.
03 May 2018
She's apples on the Tassie outlook
Gareth Arbuthnot | State Manager Business Banking Vic/Tas, ANZ
Tasmania’s economic situation is solid – and with the right decisions there could be further good news ahead.
30 Apr 2018
Budget 2018: lattes, fares and flexibility
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Expect a smaller underlying cash deficit for 2017-18 than previously projected.
25 Apr 2018
Yeo on Singapore, ASEAN and the rise of China
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Eminent Singaporean George Yeo shares his insights and comparatively dovish view on China’s rise.
25 Apr 2018
ON THE COUCH: China, the second sun in the firmament
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
George Yeo sits down with bluenotes to Chat about the geopolitical disruption of China.
20 Apr 2018
LONGREAD: tech shock > China shock
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
Technology is challenging the economic order far more than China ever did.
20 Apr 2018
PNG is on the cusp of a super cycle in mining investment
Dr Kishti Sen | International economist, ANZ
Short-term growth in the Pacific nation will remain subdued but longer-term prospects are more encouraging.
18 Apr 2018
House prices still on track for 2% growth
Jack Chambers & Jo Masters | Economist & Senior Economist, ANZ
Shifting RBA rate expectations have not materially changed the outlook for house price growth.
13 Apr 2018
Australia's global marketplaces
Jason Aravanis | Senior Industry Analyst, IBISWorld
Australian companies are increasingly looking to international markets for revenue.
11 Apr 2018
China commits to reform
Betty Wang | Senior China Economist, ANZ
New Governor of People’s Bank of China lays out timelines for country’s economic reforms.
10 Apr 2018
Soft landing in sight for Aus housing
David Plank & Joanne Masters | Head of Australian Economics & Senior Economist, ANZ
As the housing credit impulse turns up, ANZ Research sees the market in recovery mode by the second half of 2018.
09 Apr 2018
Emerging Asia: not so young after all
Eugenia Victorino | Economist, ANZ
A demographic transition is under way in Emerging Asia, what will this mean for growth?
03 Apr 2018
Hong Kong: from gateway to highway
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Is Hong Kong starting to lose its edge in merchandise trade?
27 Mar 2018
Australian agtech’s Asian advance
Mark Whelan | Group Executive Institutional, ANZ
Agri growth in ASEAN is poised to follow the China blueprint – and Australian exporters can take advantage.
22 Mar 2018
Non-banks to take greater slice of corporate loan market
Shane White | Content Manager - Institutional, ANZ
Australia’s syndicated loan market will keep expanding – with non-banks a key driver.
22 Mar 2018
Singapore’s growth potential understated
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
A stronger growth forecast in Singapore is due to two key domestic drivers of growth, says ANZ’s Head of Asia Research.
20 Mar 2018
Ausbiz goes bullish on ASEAN
Elizabeth Rudall | bluenotes contributor
Survey shows growing commitment to boost trade and investment in Southeast Asia.
19 Mar 2018
Tariffs: for better or worse - usually worse
Alan Mitchell | Former economics editor of The Australian Financial Review
Donald Trump believes his tariffs will be good for the American economy but history shows otherwise.
19 Mar 2018
New world order: Turnbull - Trump’s man of steel
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
A weakening of the WTO’s authority has the potential to upset a delicate global trading balance amid a mercantilist China’s rise.
19 Mar 2018
What’s not next for a city in knots
Jean-Paul Pelosi | Freelance journalist
There’s a gap between Sydney’s desire to be a global centre and its physical shape. What needs to change?
16 Mar 2018
Singapore an engine for two-way trade
David Green | CEO Singapore and Head of South East Asia, India & Middle East, ANZ
Singapore’s historic role in the ASEAN region continues to become even more significant.
15 Mar 2018
ASEAN in Australia: full coverage
Mark Whelan | Group Executive Institutional, ANZ
We bring you views and insights on what lies ahead for the ASEAN-Australian Special Summit.
15 Mar 2018
Australia’s key role in the ASEAN economy
Mark Whelan | Group Executive Institutional, ANZ
The importance of the growing economic scale of ASEAN cannot be underestimated.
15 Mar 2018
ASEAN rising: four unique trends shaping a dynamic market
Megan Mulia | Director Research and Information, Asialink Business
Over 2,500 organisations and individuals were asked about changes in ASEAN for Aussie businesses – here’s what they said.
15 Mar 2018
ASEAN’s agri imports and exports in five charts
Michael Whitehead | Director Industry Insights and Agribusiness, ANZ
Research by ANZ shows trade in agri consumption products with ASEAN regions is peaking.
13 Mar 2018
ASEAN: the case for diversification
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
ANZ’s Head of Asia Research discusses the need for Australia’s trade and investment engagement with ASEAN to diversify.
09 Mar 2018
China cash to hang around in bonds
Shane White | Content Manager - Institutional, ANZ
China’s bond-buying splurge across the Asia Pacific looks set to continue, expert says.
09 Mar 2018
Trump’s self-inflicted trade problem
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
The US is caught in a pincer movement of its own making on trade.
05 Mar 2018
Asia demand for $A bonds here to stay
Shane White | Content Manager - Institutional, ANZ
Telstra Group treasurer says flow of liquidity out of Asia into $A bonds will likely continue.
28 Feb 2018
NZ productivity: not too shabby (but improvement needed)
Philip Borkin | Senior Economist, ANZ
Sure, the figures looked bad but the latest productivity snapshot for New Zealand is a little more promising. More please.
27 Feb 2018
Singapore on front foot over demographic challenges
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
City nation set to raise GST rate in order to stave off ageing population issues.
23 Feb 2018
Event economics: faster, higher, stronger…
Jason Murphy | Publisher, Thomas the Think Engine
The Winter Games are wrapping up in Pyeongchang but the economic impact – whichever way it goes – will last for some time.
21 Feb 2018
Stateometer: national strength
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Differences faded across Australia’s states and territories in December quarter, reading shows.
12 Feb 2018
China’s savings, offshore investment, in charts
Raymond Yeung & Kaushik Baidya | Chief Economist Greater China & Economist, ANZ
The domestic Chinese environment is becoming less supportive of low-risk investments.
08 Feb 2018
New world order: Trump, trade & the TPP
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
US involvement in the new TPP would not be simple given the remaining participants have re-negotiated its terms.
08 Feb 2018
Good times fade away on markets
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
Crashes aside, don’t expect a repeat of the double-digit market returns of 2017.
05 Feb 2018
The NZ economy in four charts
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
The abrupt moderation in NZ housing suggests the economy is about to screech to a halt –but this time it’s different.
31 Jan 2018
What the new TPP means for Asia’s shifting winds
Philipp Ivanov | Chief Executive Officer, Asia Society Australia
The TPP lives again but policymakers have much to do to repair the good name of trade.
22 Jan 2018
The future of property in two charts & a podcast
Shane White & Jemma Wight | Senior production editor & production editor, bluenotes
What lies ahead for the property market? Forecasts are mixed.
22 Jan 2018
Is China’s new economic focus working?
Dr Lauren Johnston | McKenzie Postdoctoral Fellow at the Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
The new economic era in China is well underway and its impacts are being felt widely.
18 Jan 2018
Is this as good as it gets for the economy?
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
Let’s welcome the global recovery and take advantage of it - but the chances of further improvement are minor.
11 Jan 2018
India, the elephant in the shadow of the dragon
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
India’s rise is too often compared to those which came before it, rather than on its own merits.
10 Jan 2018
House price growth to slow to 1% then recover
Jack Chambers & David Plank | Economist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
New ANZ Research model suggests dwelling price growth will slow but stay positive for 2018.
09 Jan 2018
When Mr Jones met Watanabe san…
Uenishi Hideo | Head of Retail and Wealth Japan, ANZ
Japan’s economy may finally be on a sustainable rise – but the country still needs to diversify its asset allocation.
08 Jan 2018
IN CHARTS: best yet to come for Indonesia
Ronny FRM | Director Loan Syndications & Specialised Finance, PT Bank, ANZ Indonesia
A look at Indonesia’s broader economy reveals room for improvement across GDP.
13 Dec 2017
Asia’s $US-bond boom is just getting started
Trends which have driven record-breaking growth in $US bonds in the region are set to continue into 2018.
08 Dec 2017
Will the pillars of growth hold in 2018?
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
Growth has strengthened in 2017 but we expect some moderation throughout the New Year.
07 Dec 2017
Foreign buyers not to blame for house prices
Daniel Gradwell | Senior Economist, ANZ
Foreign property buying in Australia has not been the main cause of rapid price growth.
07 Dec 2017
New world order: threading the policy needle
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Australia’s Foreign Policy White Paper makes progress in coming to terms with the new geopolitical reality.
06 Dec 2017
Is fintech Japan’s next Sony?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Japan may not be the highest-profile fintech market in the world but it is a particularly interesting one.
05 Dec 2017
Xmas ‘17: ho ho or ho hum for retail?
Mike Ebstein | Director, MWE Consulting
We look at what the data says about the upcoming peak retail season.
04 Dec 2017
Australia’s future in the unmeasurable economy
Alan Mitchell | Former economics editor of The Australian Financial Review
Labour productivity is in the doldrums and an uncomfortable future is lapping at our feet.
28 Nov 2017
Is the end of the ASX’s lost decade nigh?
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
Australian shares continue to underperform and company earnings may be to blame.
22 Nov 2017
Stateometer: a clearer picture
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Strength in labour market, recovery in mining states sees convergence in ANZ Stateometer.
22 Nov 2017
The Japan, Australia business relationship: 1+1=3
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
The opportunity for corporate Australia and Japan to cooperate in third countries is large.
15 Nov 2017
Data vs the war stories in China
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
There’s always talk of failures in China, but the data suggest its appetite for foreign business will only grow – and quickly.
15 Nov 2017
Stars are aligning for Singapore growth
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
A long-awaited pick-up in business investment should sustain Singapore’s export momentum into 2018.
14 Nov 2017
Megatrends: the next 10 years vs last 50, Pt 2
Damien Klassen | Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth
The long-term trends which carried markets over the last 50 years are ending.
13 Nov 2017
The China question
Philipp Ivanov | Chief Executive Officer, Asia Society Australia
Can China effectively pursue a political tightening agenda while implementing ambitious reform?
09 Nov 2017
Aus household debt continues to outrun income
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
Ultimately, higher interest rates will be required to bring household debt growth in line with income growth.
08 Nov 2017
New world order: the APEC paradox
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
November’s APEC forum will be the first featuring an American President seemingly out of step with its founding principles.
23 Oct 2017
Megatrends: the next 10 years vs last 50, Pt 1
Damien Klassen | Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth
A look at the relentless demographic and structural undercurrents which will drive markets in the future.
20 Oct 2017
Navigating the gig economy
Dr Wesley McClendon | Global HR executive, thought leader and executive director, McClendon Research Group, Inc (MRG)
The war for talent isn’t over- the talented have just left the building.
19 Oct 2017
The size of the Asian opportunity has doubled
Mark Hand | Group Executive, Australia Business and Private Bank, ANZ
The size of the Asian opportunity for Australian businesses has doubled in the last 12 months to $A278 billion.
18 Oct 2017
LONGREAD: China’s green shift and how Australia should respond
John A Mathews | Professor of strategy at MGSM, Macquarie University
China has adopted a new energy strategy with determination and ambition. Australia needs to position itself strategically.
16 Oct 2017
Kiribati’s story on the front lines
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
Kiribati's growth comes as the nation stares down the spectre of climate change.
13 Oct 2017
Scope for growth in NZ, ASEAN trade
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
NZ trade with ASEAN is growing but there are several potential areas it can be enhanced.
11 Oct 2017
NCCPC to likely see Xi’s vision for China’s future
Raymond Yeung & Betty Wang | Chief Economist Greater China & Senior China Economist, ANZ
China’s upcoming NCCPC is expected to see President Xi outline a new ideology for the country’s future.
10 Oct 2017
Why GDP and welfare are parting company
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
Something is up with wage growth around the world – and that something could be technology.
02 Oct 2017
INFOGRAPHIC: Growth, above trend but modest
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
A brief glance at the key points for markets and the global economy in calendar Q4.
25 Sep 2017
Political press releases: More than just words
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
New Zealand – not unexpectedly – has a hung parliament after the weekend election. What can the parties’ own words tells about how a coalition may form?
25 Sep 2017
Nine charts that tell the story of the housing market
Daniel Gradwell and Joanne Masters | Senior Economists at ANZ Research
The housing market is down but not out. Here are the charts you need to see.
19 Sep 2017
WA zooms in on Asia
Kathleen Jahour | Head of Regional Business Banking WA, ANZ
Budget initiatives could help to fuel renewed economic prosperity in WA’s regional areas.
18 Sep 2017
Growth backers: financing Asia’s rapid expansion
Carl Roberts | Head of ANZ Loan Syndications for South & Southeast Asia.
An infrastructure investment gap is opening up in Asia challenges regarding the availability and pricing of capital are increasing.
12 Sep 2017
Singapore: New Zealand’s open gateway to ASEAN
David Green | CEO Singapore and Head of South East Asia, India & Middle East, ANZ
New Zealand and Singapore have strong economic ties – but their joint ties to the region are vastly greater.
12 Sep 2017
Is Tasmania fit for purpose?
Chris Sparks | Regional Executive, Regional Business Banking Tasmania, ANZ
Ongoing investment required to stabilise and improve Australia’s healthcare system.
11 Sep 2017
Volatile times? Nobody told markets
Tom Kenny | Senior International Economist, ANZ
Conditions remain accommodative as markets keep calm despite geopolitical uncertainty.
04 Sep 2017
NZ votes: party leaders outline their vision to bluenotes
Julia de Blaauw | BlueNotes contributing editor
We speak to the leaders of the major NZ parties ahead of the upcoming vote.
31 Aug 2017
bluenotes debate: uncertainty & going green
Darren Thomson | bluenotes contributor
A panel of expert issuers and investors chat about the outlook and the trend of responsible issuance.
23 Aug 2017
Stateometer: keep on humming
Cherelle Murphy & Thomas Hounslow | Senior economist, ANZ & bluenotes data editor
Australia’s fortunes improve as housing construction keeps economies humming while labour markets and trade improve nationwide.
18 Aug 2017
China’s new digital dividend
Andrew Sheng & Xiao Geng | Distinguished Fellow at AGI & President, HKIIF
Sustaining rapid growth in China requires the country to keep moving up the global value chain.
10 Aug 2017
Wages, tech and the other half of the chessboard
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
We need to face the possibility tech has changed the fundamentals of growth.
10 Aug 2017
Fun in Japan on ‘Premium Friday’
Elizabeth Masamune | Managing Director of @Asia Associates Japan
It’s always a challenge to order an improvement in morale - as Japan has found out.
03 Aug 2017
$A: between a rock and a dark place
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
Iron ore and coal are having a surprising influence on the direction of the Australian dollar.
01 Aug 2017
Japan: emerging from the lost decades?
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
Evidence suggests pervasive deflation has ended in Japan and the country is moving into a new normal.
19 Jul 2017
NZ to stay on song
Cameron Bagrie | Chief Economist, New Zealand ANZ
Economic momentum in NZ is picking up but expect it to stay modest amid capacity restraints.
06 Jul 2017
Lessons learned from Asian crisis still at play
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
Twenty years on from the Asian Financial Crisis the saga still leaves scars.
04 Jul 2017
Exciting times for currencies ahead
Daniel Been | Head of FX strategy at ANZ
For currencies, there’s a steamroller coming – in the shape of liquidity.
04 Jul 2017
New world order: days of crises past
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
In an environment unusually fraught for all sorts of reasons the G20 is under unique scrutiny.
30 Jun 2017
Q&A: BoE’s Carney on the role of business on climate
Francine Lacqua | Bloomberg
FSB chair chats to Bloomberg about climate and financial stability ahead of G-20 meeting.
26 Jun 2017
Five reasons a demographic time bomb is not looming
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
You can’t predict the future reading demographics alone, in a new report ANZ Research look into whether the ageing global population is sign of an alarming old age dependency ratio.
23 Jun 2017
Public sector announcement: we’re growing
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Underlying public demand is offsetting some of the weakness from Australia’s slowing mining investment.
21 Jun 2017
China Australia: A marriage of more than convenience
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
The Australia China relationship is rarely out of the headlines – for better or worse. Both countries need each other.
13 Jun 2017
NZ Truckometer: up, up and ok
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
Latest reading suggests NZ economy still has plenty of momentum.
13 Jun 2017
New world order: fracturing consensus
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Australia seems to be cautiously sketching out a more independent role in a world where old certainties are being discarded.
09 Jun 2017
ChAFTA’s bright future
Alan Oxley | Managing Director, ITS Global
On the second anniversary of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement economic engagement is already deeper and broader.
09 Jun 2017
Business must lead support for free trade
Shayne Elliott | Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
ChAFTA has delivered vast improvements for people and businesses and will continue to do so.
08 Jun 2017
China’s risk-profile shift in five charts
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China’s price-driven recovery which came on the back of the commodity super cycle is starting to lose steam.
06 Jun 2017
The Mekong’s demographic tailwind won’t last forever
Eugenia Victorino | Economist, ANZ
How long can the Greater Mekong region depend on a young workforce?
01 Jun 2017
The end of China’s bike cycle?
Sara Brocklesby | Manager, communications & media, University of Melbourne
After two decades of modernisation and motorisation, China’s green push could see bikes make a comeback.
31 May 2017
China’s not the worry – but Australia is
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
Don’t get fixated on China. Australia’s issues are more home grown.
30 May 2017
Challenges mount for Australian retailers
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
Consumers are tightening their belts as surging household debt forces them to rethink spending.
26 May 2017
Five key factors in the energy outlook
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
It may seem chaotic but big themes are emerging coal and energy markets.
23 May 2017
Under the hood of China’s AUM opportunity
Tim Moloney | Global Head, FX Investor Sales, ANZ
China’s asset-management sector expanded sixfold from 2012 to end 2016. The opportunity is massive and growing fast.
23 May 2017
What’s powering the lithium boom?
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
Some $A500 million in Chinese investment has seen a sevenfold increase in lithium mines in WA.
19 May 2017
Building regional Australia - post Budget2017
Simone Stella | bluenotes contributor
Jack Archer and Christine Linden sit down to dissect the emerging implications of the federal budget for regional Australia.
10 May 2017
Budget2017: growth ambition
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
The federal budget tries to balance spending with a creative search for revenue.
10 May 2017
Australian Commonwealth Budget 2017-18
bluenotes contributors |
Australia's Commonwealth Budget has been unveiled, with a focus on security, fairness and opportunity.
04 May 2017
China’s services transformation
Raymond Yeung, Kaushik Baidya & Kanika Bhatnagar | Chief Economist, Greater China, Economist & Junior economist at ANZ
China’s transformation into a services-led economy continues. In the first quarter of 2017 China reported stronger-than-expected headline gross domestic product data of 6.9 per cent.
04 May 2017
The Fed, perception and reality
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
When the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates we assume that means tighter financial conditions leading to a slower economy and knock-on impacts to the share market. However, reality is not quite that simple.
03 May 2017
The not-so-simple housing story
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
In her excellent and challenging book Happiness for All, Carol Graham uses the analogy of being stuck in traffic, with the lane next to you moving and yours not.
03 May 2017
Building a better future for Aus manufacturing
Christine Linden | General Manager, Regional Business Banking, ANZ Australia
Australia’s modern manufacturing sector carries with it an international reputation for quality and innovation.
02 May 2017
Aus budget 2017: what to expect
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
May’s Australian federal budget is being cast as one which will boost infrastructure spending and address ‘fairness’ including through housing affordability and university fee arrangements.
01 May 2017
Australia’s changing investment orientation
Greg Earl | Writer, editor and consultant
Australian investors had a little-appreciated coming-out party just over a year ago when they decided for the first time to put more of their money into South East Asia than New Zealand.
26 Apr 2017
The prognosis for Australia’s challenged GP sector
Francesca Rizzo | BlueNotes contributing editor
Australia's health sector is grappling with a variety of challenges including an ageing population and growing burden of chronic disease.
26 Apr 2017
Vanuatu’s rocky road to prosperity
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
From one of Port Vila’s ritziest streets, the address of consulates, local rich-listers and senior multi-national executives, the views out over the stunning blue Erakor Lagoon are spectacular. But the road to get to these residences is spectacular for all the wrong reasons: its potholes are so huge, ubiquitous and unavoidable anything less than a 4WD would be foolhardy.
24 Apr 2017
LONGREAD: overview of the Japanese pension fund market
Brett Cooper | Senior Trade Commissioner, Austrade
For more than half a century Japan has maintained a reputation as one of the world’s leading exporters of the highest quality manufactured products. But it also maintains a strong competitive advantage in another sector: capital.
13 Apr 2017
Under the waterline between China and Japan
Mark Skulley & Jim Skulley | Freelance journalist & Honours student in international relations at La Trobe University
One of Japan's foremost China watchers, Seiichiro Takagi, tries to look over the horizon when it comes to the South China Sea.
12 Apr 2017
It’s not all about millennials: consumers are ageing
Gina Westbrook | Director Strategy Briefings, Euromonitor
There’s never been a better time to be old – or to take advantage of the growing mature-consumer market. Life expectancy is rising around the world, having a major effect on consumer behaviour and the way business approach the market.
07 Apr 2017
PODCAST: Cross-border insolvency, a complicated beast
Leon Gettler | Veteran and highly regarded management journalist
Insolvency laws are different in every country and a lot of Asian businesses use offshore structures. Over the last decade, there have been moves to address growing complexity with a number of Asian countries updating their insolvency laws.
07 Apr 2017
Rising infrastructure to pick up mining’s slack
Daniel Gradwell & David Plank | Economist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
The decline in Australia’s mining-related investment has been well documented in recent years. There are still declines to come, but there’s good news: the drag on the economy from mining is steadily easing and other sectors are picking up the slack.
05 Apr 2017
Policy to provide temporary relief from property heat in China
Raymond Yeung & Betty Wang | Chief Economist Greater China & Senior China Economist, ANZ
Chinese property developers remain confident about the real estate outlook despite the government’s tightening actions – particularly as previous cooling measures have proved to be insufficient to tame property prices.
05 Apr 2017
Housing: boom or doom?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Australians love talking about property – how expensive it is but also how desirable. At the same time as affordability is at cyclical lows and household debt at highs, both major Australian media organisations have launched huge, glossy inserted marketing magazines wallowing in the allure of luxury property.
03 Apr 2017
Challenges for Chinese tourism growth should prove temporary in NZ
Philip Borkin & Sharon Zollner | Senior economist & Associate Director, ANZ NZ
New Zealand tourism is on a tear with no sign of slowing, driven by ever-higher numbers of Chinese tourists, right? Actually, not quite.
03 Apr 2017
Oil price forecasts up in the air
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
To hedge oil or not to hedge oil is the big question. Rising volatility accentuated by uncertainty on whether there will be an oversupply or shortage of oil is causing many a dilemma to companies for whom oil is a significant input cost.
31 Mar 2017
NZ: maturing like a fine wine
Cameron Bagrie & NZ Research team | Economists, ANZ
New Zealand has reached a mature stage in the economic cycle. Historically, sharp slowdowns have followed such periods - but ANZ research does not believe the cycle is about to roll over and expire.
29 Mar 2017
Inflation, not employment, now guides RBA on rates
David Plank & Giulia Lavinia Specchia | Head of Australian Economics & Economist, ANZ
A demand for increased duration, diversification and the rise of Asian liquidity are the biggest factors facing Australia’s capital markets sector as we head into the middle of 2017, according to the co-heads of capital markets at ANZ.
28 Mar 2017
Regional Aus: ready for the Asian trade horizon
Christine Linden | General Manager, Regional Business Banking, ANZ Australia
Agriculture has long been a cornerstone of Australia’s economy. As the sector again surges - or “saves our economic bacon” - after 28 per cent growth in 2016 and high expectations for 2017, we’re again reminded of its key place in our economic mix.
20 Mar 2017
Economics: too dismal for women?
Luci Ellis | Assistant Governor (Economic), RBA
Unfortunately both in general and for female students, economics is not exactly popular in Australia.
16 Mar 2017
Fed hike yesterday’s news, now for tomorrow
Tom Kenny | Senior International Economist, ANZ
The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates as expected but all eyes are on the future as a slightly disappointed market reflects on what happens next.
14 Mar 2017
Trade machinations in Chile
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The world’s 45th largest economy, Chile is hardly the epicenter of the world trading system. But this week the South American country hosts an event which may prove to be of unusual significance for the global trading system, and for the countries of the Indo-Pacific in particular, including Australia.
09 Mar 2017
Single living, smaller: the reality of 2030
Jennifer Farmer | bluenotes production editor
By 2030 the size, location and demographics of households globally is set to change.
02 Mar 2017
Market outlook 2017: better but not great
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The post-financial crisis environment has been described by a number of start-stop recoveries – signs of recovery emerge, markets respond, but then something short-circuits the improvement. In our view, however, there is little on the economic horizon to short-circuit the current recovery.
23 Feb 2017
Five key market themes to look out for in 2017
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The headwinds of 2016 are behind us. As we look ahead, financial conditions and monetary policy all look supportive of growth but global political upheaval, trade uncertainty and a US economy already long in the tooth remain concerns.
21 Feb 2017
Losing AAA – what would it mean for bank interest rates?
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
No government wants the ignominy of a credit rating downgrade but for Australia, which sits at the top of the pile with a AAA rating from the major credit rating agencies, the pain for the government of the day would be acute.
16 Feb 2017
No, China will not save iron ore
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
Positive sentiment has crept back into iron ore markets amid weaker-than-expected export data from Australia and expectations of Chinese restocking. Our advice is not to get too excited - we still believe China will destock in the post-Lunar New Year period as proposed steel capacity cuts are delayed.
09 Feb 2017
Australia’s awkward post-TPP choice
Greg Earl | Ex-Japan Correspondent & Pacific Editor, AFR & Former Member of the Australia Japan Foundation board
Donald Trump’s abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal has left his Australian allies with an awkward choice.
06 Feb 2017
Is AAA a curse for the Australian economy?
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
The future of Australia’s AAA credit rating might be giving Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his government a few sleepless nights but there is an argument which says losing the grade may be just what Australia needs to move out of its economic humdrum.
03 Feb 2017
Trade is dead; long live trade
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
The United States has made its decision and as a result, it looks like the end of the road for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
24 Jan 2017
The regional Japan growth paradox
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Speaking to the Australia and New Zealand Chamber of Commerce in Japan last week, ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott quipped it was rare to speak at a multinational event where all the audience understood a rugby reference.
17 Jan 2017
LONGREAD: Fiji’s next tourism adventure
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
A stroll along Fiji’s famous beaches throws up a United Nations of accents, along with some dozing and the odd case of sunburn. Listen more closely, and you will hear plenty of Aussies, Kiwis and, to a lesser extent, Europeans.
13 Jan 2017
NZ Truckometer touches brakes; may indicate lane change for economy
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
The latest New Zealand Truckometer suggests current growth momentum in the country is very strong but the pace may be set to slow over the next six months.
13 Jan 2017
Globalisation in the rear-view mirror in 2017
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
To understand the logic of US President-elect Donald Trump’s sharp breaks with Republican orthodoxy—threats of tariffs on US companies moving jobs abroad, treating the decades-long One China policy as a bargaining chip—you need to remember how technology enabled a very specific passion for the past to become kingmaker in US politics.
23 Dec 2016
Cleaning up trade’s dirty laundry
Abhishek Vyas | Associate Director Trade Products, ANZ
Behind the simplest handbag, pair of trainers or item of clothing could be a complex web of money laundering and criminal gangs.
20 Dec 2016
Who matters more to Australia, the US or China?
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
The US is Australia’s top investor, not China. What impact will that have on the Australian economy in January when Donald Trump becomes President? BlueNotes looks at US investment in Australia and how this fits into the Asian Century.
16 Dec 2016
Outlook: economies, currencies and commodities in 2017
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
A recent drop into negative growth in Australia will not be enough to keep the economy from growing above trend in 2017, while growth in the Asia Pacific regions will be limited by developments in the US and China.
12 Dec 2016
Fiji: the Pacific hub in the Asia Pacific
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
Nowadays, the concept of the ‘Asia-Pacific’ is on the lips of everybody in officialdom.
06 Dec 2016
Trump’s age of uncertainty
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Donald Trump did not take long to unsettle relations with China and raise questions about a Trump administration’s commitment to a ‘one-China’ policy, a cornerstone of American diplomacy since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger.
25 Nov 2016
India: it’s time to look west
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
We often hear India is a country of great potential. But what is really being said is India has the resources, people and raw materials for success – if only it could get its act together. Finally that appears to be happening.
22 Nov 2016
Darwin and the saltwater people
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Darwin’s strategic location as a trading port is no secret to the Larrakia people, the original custodians of the land and waters around the Northern Territory capital.
21 Nov 2016
The emerging Trump world order
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The Chinese word for crisis embraces the characters signifying danger and opportunity. Any reasonable consideration of a Donald Trump presidency must anticipate a period of considerable uncertainty well into 2017.
18 Nov 2016
NZ, Aus part ways on employment
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
If you’re waiting for net migration in New Zealand to fall sharply you may be waiting a while.
09 Nov 2016
yetsenga-trump-triumph-no-brexit
Phoebe O'Sullivan | BlueNotes contributing editor
Despite a global market slump following Donald Trump’s triumph in the US presidential race, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says this will not necessarily be the negative event many are expecting even though it reigned in the prospects of the Fed raising rates in December.
08 Nov 2016
How far we’ve come: 30 years of change in NZ
Sophie Speer | BlueNotes contributing editor
In just three decades, the economic landscape in New Zealand has changed irrevocably. This infographic spells out the biggest shifts.
25 Oct 2016
NZ housing: she’ll be right?
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s most recent M10 housing report shows the value of New Zealand’s housing stock (capturing changes in both the price and the number – and quality – of houses) increased in the June quarter to $NZ 959,850 million, or 381 per cent of nominal GDP. Australia has followed a very similar trajectory.
21 Oct 2016
Gold, the shining yellow: an Indian perspective
Tarun Gulabani | Senior Relationship Manager, ANZ
India is a country with 1.25 billion people and a large savings culture. It may be a broad generalisation that Asians are big savers but Indians live up to the reputation. And they save in different assets to elsewhere in Asia – particularly in gold.
18 Oct 2016
Singapore’s quiet Aus property portfolio
Rohit Mohindra | Head of Commercial Real Estate Singapore, ANZ
Singaporeans are avid property investors, both individually and at an institutional level, within Singapore and globally. They have a shrewd eye for returns and Australia is a major focus, as indeed it is for other Asian and global investors.
12 Oct 2016
ASEAN trade path clear: ministers
Anna Green | CEO Philippines, ANZ
As the world gathered in Laos in September for the ASEAN business summit, an increased interest in developing stronger, more tangible relationships with ASEAN bloc countries among senior global leaders became clear.
11 Oct 2016
NZ v Aus: know when to hold ’em
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
For central banks, it’s all about knowing when to hold ‘em .
07 Oct 2016
The long, long – long – commute
Chris Kelly | Award winning artist
We spend a lot of time on the way to work – by foot, by public transport or stuck in traffic. But exactly how much time?
05 Oct 2016
The next recession is inevitable
Rob Molyneux | Group General Manager Risk Metrics & Infrastructure, ANZ
Glenn Stevens retired from the Reserve bank of Australia in September, warning the country risks lulling itself into a false sense of security by constantly retelling the “25-years-without-a-recession” narrative.
05 Oct 2016
The four key consumer trends for 2017
Lisa Holmes | Senior Survey Analyst, Euromonitor International
In 2017 the most successful business will be the ones which capitalise on developing consumer trends.
19 Sep 2016
LONGREAD: silver linings over the Swan
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
Western Australia has been hit with a sharp economic downturn as the Australian economy adjusts to the transition away from the mining boom. The top-ranked state economy in Australia just two years ago, WA now sits at number seven, above only struggling Tasmania.
16 Sep 2016
China spreads its RMB wings
Daniel Everett | Global Head RMB Strategy & Execution, ANZ
Move over dollar, euro, pound and yen, there is a new player in town flexing its muscle and keen to dominate global currency flows. That at least was the plan of the Chinese authorities when it comes to internationalising its currency, the renminbi (RMB), for the best part of the last decade.
15 Sep 2016
Four economic postcards from the US
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
In the middle of the most volatile presidential election in a generation, the global gaze on the United States of America has rarely been so intense. Inevitably, this will affect the economy but what is going on behind the headlines and controversy?
13 Sep 2016
The negativity of negative interest rates
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
One of the key things banks do is borrow money for short periods of time and lend it out for long periods - maybe take deposits for three months and make home loans for 20 years. It is what is called ‘maturity transformation’ and when all goes well, it’s a profitable business.
05 Sep 2016
Housing affordability, eh?
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
If you’re lucky enough to own your own slice of heaven in the land of the long white cloud you should consider yourself so.
26 Aug 2016
Evolving global risks and the challenge of reform
Dr Martin Joy | Senior Manager Public Policy, ANZ
With Brexit’s political and economic disruptions continuing to unfold, the latest Global Risks Report from the World Economic Forum makes for eerily prescient reading.
22 Aug 2016
Why unaffordable housing costs us all in the end
Jean-Paul Pelosi | Freelance journalist
If affordable housing is crucial to the success of our society, instilling a sense of security and well-being, then cities like Sydney and Auckland are failing miserably.
19 Aug 2016
The case for climate and electricity policy integration
Dr Tim Nelson | Head of Economics, Policy and Sustainability, AGL & Adjunct Associate Professor, Griffith University
South Australia’s energy market has been the subject of much debate lately. But why? There is little doubt the state is in the vanguard of incorporating large volumes of renewable energy into its supply. The state’s current peak electricity demand is around 3,000 megawatts (MW).
16 Aug 2016
How much is too much bank capital?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
It’s indisputable the level of core capital banks must carry is rising higher and higher; nor is it in dispute capital was too low when the financial crisis hit. Indeed, some prominent authorities, including former Bank of England governor Mervyn King and Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf, believe in even higher levels of capital.
12 Aug 2016
ASEAN as important as ever: Bishop
Anna Green | CEO Philippines, ANZ
The ASEAN region remains an enormous opportunity for Australian investment and one that will continue to grow as regional policy changes take effect, according to Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop.
09 Aug 2016
Five reasons electronic voting faces big hurdles
Paul Edwards | Manager Operations Strategy, ANZ
In the aftermath of the 2016 Australian federal election a renewed discussion emerged about electronic voting in future ballots. The primary argument is such a move would accelerate the counting of votes and reduce the period of uncertainty following on polling day.
09 Aug 2016
Heavy traffic detour for NZ truckometer
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
An abrupt 5.7 per cent fall in ANZ’s Heavy Traffic Index in July runs counter to almost all other economic indicators and anecdotes, warning an economic slowdown may loom.
08 Aug 2016
A tale of several cities (in NZ)
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate to a record low last week but banks passed on only half of it at a retail level. A similar outcome is likely in New Zealand this week should the RBNZ follow suit, with bank funding costs having risen sharply this year.
04 Aug 2016
LONGREAD: Timor-Leste, Australia's northern exposure
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
Thirsty visitors to Timor-Leste might expect the dominant beer will be Indonesia's top-selling drop, Bintang.
02 Aug 2016
Why a British platform wants Japanese soccer (and what it means for chicken sandwiches)
Terrie Lloyd | CEO, Japan Travel KK
In July a Japanese organisation sealed what is probably the biggest online-content sales deal in the nation's history. It wasn't an anime sale, nor was it some massive multiplayer online game licensing.
26 Jul 2016
Will Japan hit the economic alarm or snooze?
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
Brexit was a shock for Japan. But it was I would argue a wake-up call. What to make then of the Japanese government’s surprisingly strong performance in the latest elections? The snooze button or a second alarm?
19 Jul 2016
The mood doesn’t match the facts - and promise - of Townsville
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
From Castle Hill, the 300-metre pink granite monolith looming over Cleveland Bay and spectacular Magnetic Island, the city of Townsville looks a like it should be a flourishing economic centre.
14 Jul 2016
Brexit: the five stages of grief
Andrew Palmer | Head of FIG Australia, ANZ
The wounds – economic and political – are still raw from Britain’s vote to leave the EU. The global financial system continues to be under close observation.
11 Jul 2016
Nostalgia and the challenge of ageing
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Nostalgia is a beguiling, often sepia-toned wistfulness about a kinder, simpler past. It’s more prevalent the older we get. And advanced economies around the world are getting older.
07 Jul 2016
Brexit, Japan and Mrs Watanabe's granddaughter
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
Brexit has hit Japan. But there are both acute and chronic aspects of the contagion and the longer-term issues go far beyond Britain and even the EU.
01 Jul 2016
How behavioural economics explains the Brexit
Dr Martin Joy | Senior Manager Public Policy, ANZ
If the Brexit – the UK’s decision to leave the European Union - doesn’t seem rational, you may be right.
01 Jul 2016
BlueNotes on the Brexit: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
Britain has voted to leave the European Union, upending markets and raising questions about the global economic outlook reaching all the way to the Asia-Pacific.
01 Jul 2016
Brexit does not change the global growth outlook
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The market reaction to the news Britain has voted to leave the European Union has been strong –not unsurprisingly given markets expected the vote to swing the other way.
30 Jun 2016
Brexit: does the market even care about AAA anymore?
Sean Keane | Founder & Managing Director, Triple T Consulting
Back in the early 1990s the growing size and volatility of the FX market became an increasing concern of regulators as more and more participants began trading in larger size.
28 Jun 2016
Can you bank on brexit?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
There are two particular groups devastated by Brexit: British pollsters and Japanese policymakers.
27 Jun 2016
What the Brexit fallout means for APAC
ANZ Research |
The UK’s unprecedented decision to leave the European Union has sparked a dramatic flight to safe haven assets and currencies. The initial reaction was pronounced but is now moderating, although it will take time to settle.
23 Jun 2016
Innovation in Australia: how safe is the safe harbour?
Samantha Kinsey & Tony Troiani | Restructuring & Insolvency Partners, King & Wood Mallesons
'Innovation' has been the buzzword of the Turnbull Government in Australia and there is no doubt it, along with entrepreneurship, is central to economic growth, job creation and future prosperity.
20 Jun 2016
VIDEO: Could Australia face a services-led labour shortage?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Australia’s transition to a services economy will force businesses to reassess internal management practices as demand for labour surges in the lead up to 2030, according to ANZ’s Acting Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga.
20 Jun 2016
Business, get creative: a labour shortage looms by 2030
Toby Roberts & Richard Yetsenga | Former Director Business Management & Chief Economist, ANZ
We know Australia’s population is ageing. We also know Australia’s economy is increasingly reliant upon the service sector. But few of us are thinking about the way these things collide.
08 Jun 2016
Round and round the circular economy
Sarah Boumphrey | Head of Strategic, Economic and Consumer Insight, EuroMonitor International
Modern consumers are reassessing their priorities and increasingly asking themselves what they truly value. They are asking questions like ‘Why own something that you only use sporadically?’ And ‘Why pay for space you don’t use?’
01 Jun 2016
Why we need to open up the north
Mark Hand | Group Executive, Australia Business and Private Bank, ANZ
Asia’s consumer revolution demands an appropriate-sized response. Amid variable conditions in Australia’s northern region, the right kind of response and development could see the area grow into a valuable business, trade and investment gateway to the rest of the country.
18 May 2016
Stateometer: momentum subsides
Kirk Zammit | Former Economist, ANZ
Economic activity across Australia’s state and territories moderated over the year to March 2016. Slowing momentum is evident across the east coast, driven largely by a cyclical slow-down in employment and housing.
04 May 2016
ANIMATION: The Australian Commonwealth Budget, explained
Felicity Emmett | Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
Economic forecasts in the 2016-17 Australian Commonwealth Budget reflect the new normal for the Australian economy.
04 May 2016
INFOGRAPHIC: Winners and losers of the 2016-17 Australian Commonwealth Budget
Felicity Emmett | Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
The 2016-17 Australian Commonwealth Budget has landed and as is the case in all years, some have benefited more than others.
04 May 2016
Australian Commonwealth Budget 2016-17: it’s a balancing act
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
With constrained public finances, hovering ratings agencies, and an interest rate cut emphasising economic fragilities, this year’s Australian Commonwealth Budget was always going to be a difficult balancing act. For the most part, it is a reasonable document.
04 May 2016
Australian Commonwealth Budget 2016-17: the balancing act
ANZ Research |
Australia's Commonwealth Budget has been unveiled, with a focus on setting the economic agenda, reducing the company tax burden and structural challenges.
03 May 2016
VIDEO: The key to the Australian Commonwealth Budget in just 120 seconds
Jo Masters | Senior Economist, ANZ
The 2016-17 Australian Commonwealth Budget helps address some of Australia’s structural challenges, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says, including the taxation of superannuation and the global services trade.
27 Apr 2016
It’s not the best of times. But not the worst either – mixed messages on the economy
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
The global economy continues to splutter with the International Monetary Fund once again downgrading its outlook (although still expecting growth) and a swarm of central banks expressing similarly gloomy views.
20 Apr 2016
Stateometer: NSW continues to outperform
Kirk Zammit | Former Economist, ANZ
The New South Wales and Victoria economies continued to grow at above trend rates in February, with NSW outperforming. While momentum appears to have eased in the two largest economies, this is not surprising as it follows a strong second half of 2015.
19 Apr 2016
Vietnam, its new regime and the regional trade landscape
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
Vietnam’s national congress ended in January. The five-yearly event decides the course of the nation and all top appointments. Politically they are of course intriguing but the latest could have a marked effect on the prospects for economic reform in the South-East Asian nation.
18 Apr 2016
The new world for Australian corporate treasurers
Alan Huse | Head of Transaction Banking, Australia and Papua New Guinea, ANZ
The boom times are over for corporate treasurers in Australia. After a decade of relative ease, there is now a heavy focus on cost management and efficiency as the economy shifts. Meanwhile, the global nature of business is increasing the importance of an international perspective, especially when it comes to Asia.
15 Apr 2016
Three keys to Chinese banking reform – and what it might mean for Australia
Shayne Elliott | Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott is in Beijing for the Australia-China CEO Roundtable and Australia Week in China. He believes reform of the financial system is essential for China’s continued development and this is an edited transcript of a speech he gave on the subject.
12 Apr 2016
Educating for a fragmented future in NZ
Tim Murphy | Journalist and Former Editor, New Zealand Herald
The predictions are startling: a 15 year-old today should expect to have 17 different jobs in five sectors in his or her working life. Two-thirds of the tertiary study currently being undertaken is towards jobs which soon won’t exist. Three-quarters of all new jobs will require science, maths or technology proficiency.
11 Apr 2016
Why a shared approach to sanctions is best
Mark Evans, Guy Boyd & Dinesh Anand |
Of all the fines levied against financial institutions in recent years, those imposed on HSBC and BNP Paribas for breaches of sanctions and related financial crime breaches, totalling over $US10 billion, are perhaps the most notable.
05 Apr 2016
What leverage really means for banks
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Banks are leveraged plays on economies because they lend their capital many times over. So when economies are strong, banks perform even more strongly.
05 Apr 2016
The damage quantitative tightening has done
Greg Peacock | Chief Investment Officer, NZAM
There has been a significant change in global liquidity conditions during the past six months or so.
04 Apr 2016
BlueNotes debate: How much damage can disruption do?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
BlueNotes Debates bring together important voices across the business, economic and social spectrum to thrash out where the issues lie. Managing editor Andrew Cornell recently chaired a forum of regional corporate advisory, restructuring and administration professionals. After debating their particular take on the outlook for 2016, the discussion turned to the impact of digital disruption.
01 Apr 2016
Data: the fertiliser for agribiz growth
Michael Whitehead | Director Industry Insights and Agribusiness, ANZ
Big data and analytics are big news. The opportunities data analytics present for the global agricultural sector are astonishing yet in many ways they are just the next step in a process which has been happening for centuries.
31 Mar 2016
The other impending oil crisis
Alex Kewley | Director, Client Insights & Solutions, ANZ
While most eyes are focussed on the macroeconomic imbalance causing pushing oil prices below $US40 a barrel, elsewhere the real crisis for oil is accelerating with the adoption of autonomous electric vehicles.
30 Mar 2016