19 Sep 2017
WA zooms in on Asia
Kathleen Jahour |
Budget initiatives could help to fuel renewed economic prosperity in WA’s regional areas.
Economy
18 Sep 2017
Growth backers: financing Asia’s rapid expansion
Carl Roberts | Head of ANZ Loan Syndications for South & Southeast Asia.
An infrastructure investment gap is opening up in Asia challenges regarding the availability and pricing of capital are increasing.
12 Sep 2017
Singapore: New Zealand’s open gateway to ASEAN
David Green | CEO Singapore and Head of South East Asia, India & Middle East, ANZ
New Zealand and Singapore have strong economic ties – but their joint ties to the region are vastly greater.
12 Sep 2017
Is Tasmania fit for purpose?
Chris Sparks | Regional Executive, Regional Business Banking Tasmania, ANZ
Ongoing investment required to stabilise and improve Australia’s healthcare system.
11 Sep 2017
Volatile times? Nobody told markets
Tom Kenny | Senior International Economist, ANZ
Conditions remain accommodative as markets keep calm despite geopolitical uncertainty.
04 Sep 2017
NZ votes: party leaders outline their vision to bluenotes
Julia de Blaauw | BlueNotes contributing editor
We speak to the leaders of the major NZ parties ahead of the upcoming vote.
31 Aug 2017
bluenotes debate: uncertainty & going green
Darren Thomson | bluenotes contributor
A panel of expert issuers and investors chat about the outlook and the trend of responsible issuance.
23 Aug 2017
Stateometer: keep on humming
Cherelle Murphy & Thomas Hounslow | Senior economist, ANZ & bluenotes data editor
Australia’s fortunes improve as housing construction keeps economies humming while labour markets and trade improve nationwide.
18 Aug 2017
China’s new digital dividend
Andrew Sheng & Xiao Geng | Distinguished Fellow at AGI & President, HKIIF
Sustaining rapid growth in China requires the country to keep moving up the global value chain.
10 Aug 2017
Wages, tech and the other half of the chessboard
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
We need to face the possibility tech has changed the fundamentals of growth.
10 Aug 2017
Fun in Japan on ‘Premium Friday’
Elizabeth Masamune | Managing Director of @Asia Associates Japan
It’s always a challenge to order an improvement in morale - as Japan has found out.
03 Aug 2017
$A: between a rock and a dark place
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
Iron ore and coal are having a surprising influence on the direction of the Australian dollar.
01 Aug 2017
Japan: emerging from the lost decades?
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
Evidence suggests pervasive deflation has ended in Japan and the country is moving into a new normal.
19 Jul 2017
NZ to stay on song
Cameron Bagrie | Chief Economist, New Zealand ANZ
Economic momentum in NZ is picking up but expect it to stay modest amid capacity restraints.
06 Jul 2017
Lessons learned from Asian crisis still at play
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
Twenty years on from the Asian Financial Crisis the saga still leaves scars.
04 Jul 2017
Exciting times for currencies ahead
Daniel Been | Head of FX strategy at ANZ
For currencies, there’s a steamroller coming – in the shape of liquidity.
04 Jul 2017
New world order: days of crises past
Tony Walker | Author and Former Editor
In an environment unusually fraught for all sorts of reasons the G20 is under unique scrutiny.
30 Jun 2017
Q&A: BoE’s Carney on the role of business on climate
Francine Lacqua | Bloomberg
FSB chair chats to Bloomberg about climate and financial stability ahead of G-20 meeting.
26 Jun 2017
Five reasons a demographic time bomb is not looming
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
You can’t predict the future reading demographics alone, in a new report ANZ Research look into whether the ageing global population is sign of an alarming old age dependency ratio.
23 Jun 2017
Public sector announcement: we’re growing
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Underlying public demand is offsetting some of the weakness from Australia’s slowing mining investment.
21 Jun 2017
China Australia: A marriage of more than convenience
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
The Australia China relationship is rarely out of the headlines – for better or worse. Both countries need each other.
13 Jun 2017
NZ Truckometer: up, up and ok
Sharon Zollner | Associate Director & Senior Economist NZ, ANZ
Latest reading suggests NZ economy still has plenty of momentum.
13 Jun 2017
New world order: fracturing consensus
Tony Walker | Author and Former Editor
Australia seems to be cautiously sketching out a more independent role in a world where old certainties are being discarded.
09 Jun 2017
ChAFTA’s bright future
Alan Oxley | Managing Director, ITS Global
On the second anniversary of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement economic engagement is already deeper and broader.
09 Jun 2017
Business must lead support for free trade
Shayne Elliott | Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
ChAFTA has delivered vast improvements for people and businesses and will continue to do so.
08 Jun 2017
China’s risk-profile shift in five charts
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China’s price-driven recovery which came on the back of the commodity super cycle is starting to lose steam.
06 Jun 2017
The Mekong’s demographic tailwind won’t last forever
Eugenia Victorino | Economist, ANZ
How long can the Greater Mekong region depend on a young workforce?
06 Jun 2017
Two telling points for the NZ economy
Sharon Zollner | Associate Director & Senior Economist NZ, ANZ
01 Jun 2017
The end of China’s bike cycle?
Sara Brocklesby | Manager, communications & media, University of Melbourne
After two decades of modernisation and motorisation, China’s green push could see bikes make a comeback.
31 May 2017
China’s not the worry – but Australia is
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
Don’t get fixated on China. Australia’s issues are more home grown.
30 May 2017
Challenges mount for Australian retailers
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
Consumers are tightening their belts as surging household debt forces them to rethink spending.
26 May 2017
Five key factors in the energy outlook
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
It may seem chaotic but big themes are emerging coal and energy markets.
23 May 2017
Under the hood of China’s AUM opportunity
Tim Moloney | Global Head, FX Investor Sales, ANZ
China’s asset-management sector expanded sixfold from 2012 to end 2016. The opportunity is massive and growing fast.
23 May 2017
What’s powering the lithium boom?
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
Some $A500 million in Chinese investment has seen a sevenfold increase in lithium mines in WA.
19 May 2017
Building regional Australia - post Budget2017
Simone Stella | bluenotes contributor
Jack Archer and Christine Linden sit down to dissect the emerging implications of the federal budget for regional Australia.
10 May 2017
Budget2017: growth ambition
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
The federal budget tries to balance spending with a creative search for revenue.
10 May 2017
Australian Commonwealth Budget 2017-18
BlueNotes contributors |
Australia's Commonwealth Budget has been unveiled, with a focus on security, fairness and opportunity.
04 May 2017
China’s services transformation
Raymond Yeung, Kaushik Baidya & Kanika Bhatnagar | Chief Economist, Greater China, Economist & Junior economist at ANZ
China’s transformation into a services-led economy continues. In the first quarter of 2017 China reported stronger-than-expected headline gross domestic product data of 6.9 per cent.
04 May 2017
The Fed, perception and reality
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
When the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates we assume that means tighter financial conditions leading to a slower economy and knock-on impacts to the share market. However, reality is not quite that simple.
03 May 2017
The not-so-simple housing story
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
In her excellent and challenging book Happiness for All, Carol Graham uses the analogy of being stuck in traffic, with the lane next to you moving and yours not.
03 May 2017
Building a better future for Aus manufacturing
Christine Linden | General Manager, Regional Business Banking, ANZ Australia
Australia’s modern manufacturing sector carries with it an international reputation for quality and innovation.
02 May 2017
Aus budget 2017: what to expect
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
May’s Australian federal budget is being cast as one which will boost infrastructure spending and address ‘fairness’ including through housing affordability and university fee arrangements.
01 May 2017
Australia’s changing investment orientation
Greg Earl | Writer, editor and consultant
Australian investors had a little-appreciated coming-out party just over a year ago when they decided for the first time to put more of their money into South East Asia than New Zealand.
26 Apr 2017
The prognosis for Australia’s challenged GP sector
Francesca Rizzo | BlueNotes contributing editor
Australia's health sector is grappling with a variety of challenges including an ageing population and growing burden of chronic disease.
26 Apr 2017
Vanuatu’s rocky road to prosperity
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
From one of Port Vila’s ritziest streets, the address of consulates, local rich-listers and senior multi-national executives, the views out over the stunning blue Erakor Lagoon are spectacular. But the road to get to these residences is spectacular for all the wrong reasons: its potholes are so huge, ubiquitous and unavoidable anything less than a 4WD would be foolhardy.
24 Apr 2017
LONGREAD: overview of the Japanese pension fund market
Brett Cooper | Senior Trade Commissioner, Austrade
For more than half a century Japan has maintained a reputation as one of the world’s leading exporters of the highest quality manufactured products. But it also maintains a strong competitive advantage in another sector: capital.
13 Apr 2017
Under the waterline between China and Japan
Mark Skulley & Jim Skulley | Freelance journalist & Honours student in international relations at La Trobe University
One of Japan's foremost China watchers, Seiichiro Takagi, tries to look over the horizon when it comes to the South China Sea.
12 Apr 2017
It’s not all about millennials: consumers are ageing
Gina Westbrook | Director Strategy Briefings, Euromonitor
There’s never been a better time to be old – or to take advantage of the growing mature-consumer market. Life expectancy is rising around the world, having a major effect on consumer behaviour and the way business approach the market.
07 Apr 2017
PODCAST: Cross-border insolvency, a complicated beast
Leon Gettler | Veteran and highly regarded management journalist
Insolvency laws are different in every country and a lot of Asian businesses use offshore structures. Over the last decade, there have been moves to address growing complexity with a number of Asian countries updating their insolvency laws.
07 Apr 2017
Rising infrastructure to pick up mining’s slack
Daniel Gradwell & David Plank | Economist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
The decline in Australia’s mining-related investment has been well documented in recent years. There are still declines to come, but there’s good news: the drag on the economy from mining is steadily easing and other sectors are picking up the slack.
05 Apr 2017
Policy to provide temporary relief from property heat in China
Raymond Yeung & Betty Wang | Chief Economist Greater China & Senior China Economist, ANZ
Chinese property developers remain confident about the real estate outlook despite the government’s tightening actions – particularly as previous cooling measures have proved to be insufficient to tame property prices.
05 Apr 2017
Housing: boom or doom?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Australians love talking about property – how expensive it is but also how desirable. At the same time as affordability is at cyclical lows and household debt at highs, both major Australian media organisations have launched huge, glossy inserted marketing magazines wallowing in the allure of luxury property.
03 Apr 2017
Challenges for Chinese tourism growth should prove temporary in NZ
Philip Borkin & Sharon Zollner | Senior economist & Associate Director, ANZ NZ
New Zealand tourism is on a tear with no sign of slowing, driven by ever-higher numbers of Chinese tourists, right? Actually, not quite.
03 Apr 2017
Oil price forecasts up in the air
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
To hedge oil or not to hedge oil is the big question. Rising volatility accentuated by uncertainty on whether there will be an oversupply or shortage of oil is causing many a dilemma to companies for whom oil is a significant input cost.
31 Mar 2017
NZ: maturing like a fine wine
Cameron Bagrie & NZ Research team | Economists, ANZ
New Zealand has reached a mature stage in the economic cycle. Historically, sharp slowdowns have followed such periods - but ANZ research does not believe the cycle is about to roll over and expire.
29 Mar 2017
Inflation, not employment, now guides RBA on rates
David Plank & Giulia Lavinia Specchia | Head of Australian Economics & Economist, ANZ
A demand for increased duration, diversification and the rise of Asian liquidity are the biggest factors facing Australia’s capital markets sector as we head into the middle of 2017, according to the co-heads of capital markets at ANZ.
28 Mar 2017
Regional Aus: ready for the Asian trade horizon
Christine Linden | General Manager, Regional Business Banking, ANZ Australia
Agriculture has long been a cornerstone of Australia’s economy. As the sector again surges - or “saves our economic bacon” - after 28 per cent growth in 2016 and high expectations for 2017, we’re again reminded of its key place in our economic mix.
20 Mar 2017
Economics: too dismal for women?
Luci Ellis | Assistant Governor (Economic), RBA
Unfortunately both in general and for female students, economics is not exactly popular in Australia.
16 Mar 2017
Fed hike yesterday’s news, now for tomorrow
Tom Kenny | Senior International Economist, ANZ
The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates as expected but all eyes are on the future as a slightly disappointed market reflects on what happens next.
14 Mar 2017
Trade machinations in Chile
Tony Walker | Author and Former Editor
The world’s 45th largest economy, Chile is hardly the epicenter of the world trading system. But this week the South American country hosts an event which may prove to be of unusual significance for the global trading system, and for the countries of the Indo-Pacific in particular, including Australia.
09 Mar 2017
Single living, smaller: the reality of 2030
Jennifer Farmer | bluenotes production editor
By 2030 the size, location and demographics of households globally is set to change.
02 Mar 2017
Market outlook 2017: better but not great
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The post-financial crisis environment has been described by a number of start-stop recoveries – signs of recovery emerge, markets respond, but then something short-circuits the improvement. In our view, however, there is little on the economic horizon to short-circuit the current recovery.
23 Feb 2017
Five key market themes to look out for in 2017
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The headwinds of 2016 are behind us. As we look ahead, financial conditions and monetary policy all look supportive of growth but global political upheaval, trade uncertainty and a US economy already long in the tooth remain concerns.
21 Feb 2017
Losing AAA – what would it mean for bank interest rates?
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
No government wants the ignominy of a credit rating downgrade but for Australia, which sits at the top of the pile with a AAA rating from the major credit rating agencies, the pain for the government of the day would be acute.
16 Feb 2017
No, China will not save iron ore
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
Positive sentiment has crept back into iron ore markets amid weaker-than-expected export data from Australia and expectations of Chinese restocking. Our advice is not to get too excited - we still believe China will destock in the post-Lunar New Year period as proposed steel capacity cuts are delayed.
09 Feb 2017
Australia’s awkward post-TPP choice
Greg Earl | Ex-Japan Correspondent & Pacific Editor, AFR & Former Member of the Australia Japan Foundation board
Donald Trump’s abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal has left his Australian allies with an awkward choice.
06 Feb 2017
Is AAA a curse for the Australian economy?
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
The future of Australia’s AAA credit rating might be giving Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his government a few sleepless nights but there is an argument which says losing the grade may be just what Australia needs to move out of its economic humdrum.
03 Feb 2017
Trade is dead; long live trade
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
The United States has made its decision and as a result, it looks like the end of the road for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
24 Jan 2017
The regional Japan growth paradox
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Speaking to the Australia and New Zealand Chamber of Commerce in Japan last week, ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott quipped it was rare to speak at a multinational event where all the audience understood a rugby reference.
17 Jan 2017
LONGREAD: Fiji’s next tourism adventure
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
A stroll along Fiji’s famous beaches throws up a United Nations of accents, along with some dozing and the odd case of sunburn. Listen more closely, and you will hear plenty of Aussies, Kiwis and, to a lesser extent, Europeans.
13 Jan 2017
NZ Truckometer touches brakes; may indicate lane change for economy
Sharon Zollner | Associate Director & Senior Economist NZ, ANZ
The latest New Zealand Truckometer suggests current growth momentum in the country is very strong but the pace may be set to slow over the next six months.
13 Jan 2017
Globalisation in the rear-view mirror in 2017
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
To understand the logic of US President-elect Donald Trump’s sharp breaks with Republican orthodoxy—threats of tariffs on US companies moving jobs abroad, treating the decades-long One China policy as a bargaining chip—you need to remember how technology enabled a very specific passion for the past to become kingmaker in US politics.
23 Dec 2016
Cleaning up trade’s dirty laundry
Abhishek Vyas | Associate Director Trade Products, ANZ
Behind the simplest handbag, pair of trainers or item of clothing could be a complex web of money laundering and criminal gangs.
20 Dec 2016
Who matters more to Australia, the US or China?
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
The US is Australia’s top investor, not China. What impact will that have on the Australian economy in January when Donald Trump becomes President? BlueNotes looks at US investment in Australia and how this fits into the Asian Century.
16 Dec 2016
Outlook: economies, currencies and commodities in 2017
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
A recent drop into negative growth in Australia will not be enough to keep the economy from growing above trend in 2017, while growth in the Asia Pacific regions will be limited by developments in the US and China.
12 Dec 2016
Fiji: the Pacific hub in the Asia Pacific
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
Nowadays, the concept of the ‘Asia-Pacific’ is on the lips of everybody in officialdom.
06 Dec 2016
Trump’s age of uncertainty
Tony Walker | Author and Former Editor
Donald Trump did not take long to unsettle relations with China and raise questions about a Trump administration’s commitment to a ‘one-China’ policy, a cornerstone of American diplomacy since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger.
25 Nov 2016
India: it’s time to look west
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
We often hear India is a country of great potential. But what is really being said is India has the resources, people and raw materials for success – if only it could get its act together. Finally that appears to be happening.
22 Nov 2016
Darwin and the saltwater people
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Darwin’s strategic location as a trading port is no secret to the Larrakia people, the original custodians of the land and waters around the Northern Territory capital.
21 Nov 2016
The emerging Trump world order
Tony Walker | Author and Former Editor
The Chinese word for crisis embraces the characters signifying danger and opportunity. Any reasonable consideration of a Donald Trump presidency must anticipate a period of considerable uncertainty well into 2017.
18 Nov 2016
NZ, Aus part ways on employment
Sharon Zollner | Associate Director & Senior Economist NZ, ANZ
If you’re waiting for net migration in New Zealand to fall sharply you may be waiting a while.
09 Nov 2016
yetsenga-trump-triumph-no-brexit
Phoebe O'Sullivan | BlueNotes contributing editor
Despite a global market slump following Donald Trump’s triumph in the US presidential race, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says this will not necessarily be the negative event many are expecting even though it reigned in the prospects of the Fed raising rates in December.
08 Nov 2016
How far we’ve come: 30 years of change in NZ
Sophie Speer | BlueNotes contributing editor
In just three decades, the economic landscape in New Zealand has changed irrevocably. This infographic spells out the biggest shifts.
25 Oct 2016
NZ housing: she’ll be right?
Sharon Zollner | Associate Director & Senior Economist NZ, ANZ
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s most recent M10 housing report shows the value of New Zealand’s housing stock (capturing changes in both the price and the number – and quality – of houses) increased in the June quarter to $NZ 959,850 million, or 381 per cent of nominal GDP. Australia has followed a very similar trajectory.
21 Oct 2016
Gold, the shining yellow: an Indian perspective
Tarun Gulabani | Senior Relationship Manager, ANZ
India is a country with 1.25 billion people and a large savings culture. It may be a broad generalisation that Asians are big savers but Indians live up to the reputation. And they save in different assets to elsewhere in Asia – particularly in gold.
18 Oct 2016
Singapore’s quiet Aus property portfolio
Rohit Mohindra | Head of Commercial Real Estate Singapore, ANZ
Singaporeans are avid property investors, both individually and at an institutional level, within Singapore and globally. They have a shrewd eye for returns and Australia is a major focus, as indeed it is for other Asian and global investors.
12 Oct 2016
ASEAN trade path clear: ministers
Anna Green | CEO, ANZ Laos
As the world gathered in Laos in September for the ASEAN business summit, an increased interest in developing stronger, more tangible relationships with ASEAN bloc countries among senior global leaders became clear.
11 Oct 2016
NZ v Aus: know when to hold ’em
Sharon Zollner | Associate Director & Senior Economist NZ, ANZ
For central banks, it’s all about knowing when to hold ‘em .
07 Oct 2016
The long, long – long – commute
Chris Kelly | Award winning artist
We spend a lot of time on the way to work – by foot, by public transport or stuck in traffic. But exactly how much time?
05 Oct 2016
The next recession is inevitable
Rob Molyneux | Group General Manager Risk Metrics & Infrastructure, ANZ
Glenn Stevens retired from the Reserve bank of Australia in September, warning the country risks lulling itself into a false sense of security by constantly retelling the “25-years-without-a-recession” narrative.
05 Oct 2016
The four key consumer trends for 2017
Lisa Holmes | Senior Survey Analyst, Euromonitor International
In 2017 the most successful business will be the ones which capitalise on developing consumer trends.
19 Sep 2016
LONGREAD: silver linings over the Swan
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
Western Australia has been hit with a sharp economic downturn as the Australian economy adjusts to the transition away from the mining boom. The top-ranked state economy in Australia just two years ago, WA now sits at number seven, above only struggling Tasmania.
16 Sep 2016
China spreads its RMB wings
Daniel Everett | Global Head RMB Strategy & Execution, ANZ
Move over dollar, euro, pound and yen, there is a new player in town flexing its muscle and keen to dominate global currency flows. That at least was the plan of the Chinese authorities when it comes to internationalising its currency, the renminbi (RMB), for the best part of the last decade.
15 Sep 2016
Four economic postcards from the US
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
In the middle of the most volatile presidential election in a generation, the global gaze on the United States of America has rarely been so intense. Inevitably, this will affect the economy but what is going on behind the headlines and controversy?
13 Sep 2016
The negativity of negative interest rates
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
One of the key things banks do is borrow money for short periods of time and lend it out for long periods - maybe take deposits for three months and make home loans for 20 years. It is what is called ‘maturity transformation’ and when all goes well, it’s a profitable business.
05 Sep 2016
Housing affordability, eh?
Sharon Zollner | Associate Director & Senior Economist NZ, ANZ
If you’re lucky enough to own your own slice of heaven in the land of the long white cloud you should consider yourself so.
26 Aug 2016
Evolving global risks and the challenge of reform
Dr Martin Joy | Senior Manager Public Policy, ANZ
With Brexit’s political and economic disruptions continuing to unfold, the latest Global Risks Report from the World Economic Forum makes for eerily prescient reading.
22 Aug 2016
Why unaffordable housing costs us all in the end
Jean-Paul Pelosi | Freelance journalist
If affordable housing is crucial to the success of our society, instilling a sense of security and well-being, then cities like Sydney and Auckland are failing miserably.
19 Aug 2016
The case for climate and electricity policy integration
Dr Tim Nelson | Head of Economics, Policy and Sustainability, AGL & Adjunct Associate Professor, Griffith University
South Australia’s energy market has been the subject of much debate lately. But why? There is little doubt the state is in the vanguard of incorporating large volumes of renewable energy into its supply. The state’s current peak electricity demand is around 3,000 megawatts (MW).
16 Aug 2016
How much is too much bank capital?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
It’s indisputable the level of core capital banks must carry is rising higher and higher; nor is it in dispute capital was too low when the financial crisis hit. Indeed, some prominent authorities, including former Bank of England governor Mervyn King and Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf, believe in even higher levels of capital.
12 Aug 2016
ASEAN as important as ever: Bishop
Anna Green | CEO, ANZ Laos
The ASEAN region remains an enormous opportunity for Australian investment and one that will continue to grow as regional policy changes take effect, according to Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop.
09 Aug 2016
Five reasons electronic voting faces big hurdles
Paul Edwards | Manager Operations Strategy, ANZ
In the aftermath of the 2016 Australian federal election a renewed discussion emerged about electronic voting in future ballots. The primary argument is such a move would accelerate the counting of votes and reduce the period of uncertainty following on polling day.
09 Aug 2016
Heavy traffic detour for NZ truckometer
Sharon Zollner | Associate Director & Senior Economist NZ, ANZ
An abrupt 5.7 per cent fall in ANZ’s Heavy Traffic Index in July runs counter to almost all other economic indicators and anecdotes, warning an economic slowdown may loom.
08 Aug 2016
A tale of several cities (in NZ)
Sharon Zollner | Associate Director & Senior Economist NZ, ANZ
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate to a record low last week but banks passed on only half of it at a retail level. A similar outcome is likely in New Zealand this week should the RBNZ follow suit, with bank funding costs having risen sharply this year.
04 Aug 2016
LONGREAD: Timor-Leste, Australia's northern exposure
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
Thirsty visitors to Timor-Leste might expect the dominant beer will be Indonesia's top-selling drop, Bintang.
02 Aug 2016
Why a British platform wants Japanese soccer (and what it means for chicken sandwiches)
Terrie Lloyd | CEO, Japan Travel KK
In July a Japanese organisation sealed what is probably the biggest online-content sales deal in the nation's history. It wasn't an anime sale, nor was it some massive multiplayer online game licensing.
26 Jul 2016
Will Japan hit the economic alarm or snooze?
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
Brexit was a shock for Japan. But it was I would argue a wake-up call. What to make then of the Japanese government’s surprisingly strong performance in the latest elections? The snooze button or a second alarm?
19 Jul 2016
The mood doesn’t match the facts - and promise - of Townsville
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
From Castle Hill, the 300-metre pink granite monolith looming over Cleveland Bay and spectacular Magnetic Island, the city of Townsville looks a like it should be a flourishing economic centre.
14 Jul 2016
Brexit: the five stages of grief
Andrew Palmer | Head of FIG Australia, ANZ
The wounds – economic and political – are still raw from Britain’s vote to leave the EU. The global financial system continues to be under close observation.
11 Jul 2016
Nostalgia and the challenge of ageing
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Nostalgia is a beguiling, often sepia-toned wistfulness about a kinder, simpler past. It’s more prevalent the older we get. And advanced economies around the world are getting older.
07 Jul 2016
Brexit, Japan and Mrs Watanabe's granddaughter
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
Brexit has hit Japan. But there are both acute and chronic aspects of the contagion and the longer-term issues go far beyond Britain and even the EU.
01 Jul 2016
How behavioural economics explains the Brexit
Dr Martin Joy | Senior Manager Public Policy, ANZ
If the Brexit – the UK’s decision to leave the European Union - doesn’t seem rational, you may be right.
01 Jul 2016
BlueNotes on the Brexit: full coverage
BlueNotes contributors |
Britain has voted to leave the European Union, upending markets and raising questions about the global economic outlook reaching all the way to the Asia-Pacific.
01 Jul 2016
Brexit does not change the global growth outlook
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The market reaction to the news Britain has voted to leave the European Union has been strong –not unsurprisingly given markets expected the vote to swing the other way.
30 Jun 2016
Brexit: does the market even care about AAA anymore?
Sean Keane | Founder & Managing Director, Triple T Consulting
Back in the early 1990s the growing size and volatility of the FX market became an increasing concern of regulators as more and more participants began trading in larger size.
28 Jun 2016
Can you bank on brexit?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
There are two particular groups devastated by Brexit: British pollsters and Japanese policymakers.
27 Jun 2016
What the Brexit fallout means for APAC
ANZ Research |
The UK’s unprecedented decision to leave the European Union has sparked a dramatic flight to safe haven assets and currencies. The initial reaction was pronounced but is now moderating, although it will take time to settle.
23 Jun 2016
Innovation in Australia: how safe is the safe harbour?
Samantha Kinsey & Tony Troiani | Restructuring & Insolvency Partners, King & Wood Mallesons
'Innovation' has been the buzzword of the Turnbull Government in Australia and there is no doubt it, along with entrepreneurship, is central to economic growth, job creation and future prosperity.
20 Jun 2016
VIDEO: Could Australia face a services-led labour shortage?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Australia’s transition to a services economy will force businesses to reassess internal management practices as demand for labour surges in the lead up to 2030, according to ANZ’s Acting Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga.
20 Jun 2016
Business, get creative: a labour shortage looms by 2030
Toby Roberts & Richard Yetsenga | Former Director Business Management & Chief Economist, ANZ
We know Australia’s population is ageing. We also know Australia’s economy is increasingly reliant upon the service sector. But few of us are thinking about the way these things collide.
08 Jun 2016
Round and round the circular economy
Sarah Boumphrey | Head of Strategic, Economic and Consumer Insight, EuroMonitor International
Modern consumers are reassessing their priorities and increasingly asking themselves what they truly value. They are asking questions like ‘Why own something that you only use sporadically?’ And ‘Why pay for space you don’t use?’
01 Jun 2016
Why we need to open up the north
Mark Hand | Managing Director Corporate & Commercial Banking, ANZ
Asia’s consumer revolution demands an appropriate-sized response. Amid variable conditions in Australia’s northern region, the right kind of response and development could see the area grow into a valuable business, trade and investment gateway to the rest of the country.
18 May 2016
Stateometer: momentum subsides
Kirk Zammit | Former Economist, ANZ
Economic activity across Australia’s state and territories moderated over the year to March 2016. Slowing momentum is evident across the east coast, driven largely by a cyclical slow-down in employment and housing.
04 May 2016
ANIMATION: The Australian Commonwealth Budget, explained
Felicity Emmett | Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
Economic forecasts in the 2016-17 Australian Commonwealth Budget reflect the new normal for the Australian economy.
04 May 2016
INFOGRAPHIC: Winners and losers of the 2016-17 Australian Commonwealth Budget
Felicity Emmett | Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
The 2016-17 Australian Commonwealth Budget has landed and as is the case in all years, some have benefited more than others.
04 May 2016
Australian Commonwealth Budget 2016-17: it’s a balancing act
Richard Yetsenga | ANZ chief economist
With constrained public finances, hovering ratings agencies, and an interest rate cut emphasising economic fragilities, this year’s Australian Commonwealth Budget was always going to be a difficult balancing act. For the most part, it is a reasonable document.
04 May 2016
Australian Commonwealth Budget 2016-17: the balancing act
ANZ Research |
Australia's Commonwealth Budget has been unveiled, with a focus on setting the economic agenda, reducing the company tax burden and structural challenges.
03 May 2016
VIDEO: The key to the Australian Commonwealth Budget in just 120 seconds
Jo Masters | Senior Economist, ANZ
The 2016-17 Australian Commonwealth Budget helps address some of Australia’s structural challenges, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says, including the taxation of superannuation and the global services trade.
27 Apr 2016
It’s not the best of times. But not the worst either – mixed messages on the economy
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
The global economy continues to splutter with the International Monetary Fund once again downgrading its outlook (although still expecting growth) and a swarm of central banks expressing similarly gloomy views.
20 Apr 2016
Stateometer: NSW continues to outperform
Kirk Zammit | Former Economist, ANZ
The New South Wales and Victoria economies continued to grow at above trend rates in February, with NSW outperforming. While momentum appears to have eased in the two largest economies, this is not surprising as it follows a strong second half of 2015.
19 Apr 2016
Vietnam, its new regime and the regional trade landscape
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
Vietnam’s national congress ended in January. The five-yearly event decides the course of the nation and all top appointments. Politically they are of course intriguing but the latest could have a marked effect on the prospects for economic reform in the South-East Asian nation.
18 Apr 2016
The new world for Australian corporate treasurers
Alan Huse | Head of Transaction Banking, Australia and Papua New Guinea, ANZ
The boom times are over for corporate treasurers in Australia. After a decade of relative ease, there is now a heavy focus on cost management and efficiency as the economy shifts. Meanwhile, the global nature of business is increasing the importance of an international perspective, especially when it comes to Asia.
15 Apr 2016
Three keys to Chinese banking reform – and what it might mean for Australia
Shayne Elliott | Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott is in Beijing for the Australia-China CEO Roundtable and Australia Week in China. He believes reform of the financial system is essential for China’s continued development and this is an edited transcript of a speech he gave on the subject.
12 Apr 2016
Educating for a fragmented future in NZ
Tim Murphy | Journalist and Former Editor, New Zealand Herald
The predictions are startling: a 15 year-old today should expect to have 17 different jobs in five sectors in his or her working life. Two-thirds of the tertiary study currently being undertaken is towards jobs which soon won’t exist. Three-quarters of all new jobs will require science, maths or technology proficiency.
11 Apr 2016
Why a shared approach to sanctions is best
Mark Evans, Guy Boyd & Dinesh Anand |
Of all the fines levied against financial institutions in recent years, those imposed on HSBC and BNP Paribas for breaches of sanctions and related financial crime breaches, totalling over $US10 billion, are perhaps the most notable.
05 Apr 2016
What leverage really means for banks
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Banks are leveraged plays on economies because they lend their capital many times over. So when economies are strong, banks perform even more strongly.
05 Apr 2016
The damage quantitative tightening has done
Greg Peacock | Chief Investment Officer, NZAM
There has been a significant change in global liquidity conditions during the past six months or so.
04 Apr 2016
BlueNotes debate: How much damage can disruption do?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
BlueNotes Debates bring together important voices across the business, economic and social spectrum to thrash out where the issues lie. Managing editor Andrew Cornell recently chaired a forum of regional corporate advisory, restructuring and administration professionals. After debating their particular take on the outlook for 2016, the discussion turned to the impact of digital disruption.
01 Apr 2016
Data: the fertiliser for agribiz growth
Michael Whitehead | Director Industry Insights and Agribusiness, ANZ
Big data and analytics are big news. The opportunities data analytics present for the global agricultural sector are astonishing yet in many ways they are just the next step in a process which has been happening for centuries.
31 Mar 2016
The other impending oil crisis
Alex Kewley | Director, Client Insights & Solutions, ANZ
While most eyes are focussed on the macroeconomic imbalance causing pushing oil prices below $US40 a barrel, elsewhere the real crisis for oil is accelerating with the adoption of autonomous electric vehicles.
30 Mar 2016
Japan's at a turning point – and that's a good thing
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Japan has entered its third “lost decade" of economic malaise following the collapse of its bubble economy in the early 90s.
24 Mar 2016
Who's to blame for the slowdown in world trade?
Rodney Maddock | Adjunct Professor of Economics, Monash University
World trade is now growing at about half the rate it did before the global financial crisis. On viewing the data several questions immediately spring to mind.
16 Mar 2016
Stateometer: slight east-coast easing
Felicity Emmett | Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
States on Australia's east coast eased slightly in the first month of 2016 according to the ANZ Stateometer, although trends remain broadly positive.
15 Mar 2016
Four burning questions about China, in charts
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Many questions remain about the state of China's economy amid shifting internal attitudes and ambitious strategic initiatives. Below are four burning (and illustrated) questions about the China's new normal.
04 Mar 2016
Germination in Aus grain industry
Christine Linden | General Manager, Regional Business Banking, ANZ Australia
The resurgence of rural and regional Australia is real. We are seeing fresh evidence of renewed confidence almost every week.
26 Feb 2016
Six Australian workplace megatrends of the future
Patrick Maes | Former General Manager Strategy & Planning, ANZ
Rapid technological changes provide a chance for Australia to commit to an innovative economy, but it won't happen unless we act.
23 Feb 2016
India vs the analysts
Alys Francis | Freelance journalist reporting on business and development across South Asia from India
Just as vigorous debate is underway in China over whether official data is painting a true picture of the economy and in Australia about unpredictable employment numbers, economists monitoring India are perplexed by seemingly conflicting information.
23 Feb 2016
Christchurch: off life support and beating again
Tim Murphy | Journalist and Former Editor, New Zealand Herald
It is just 1826 days since the Big One that threatened to break a community and an economy. Yet the businesses and people of the New Zealand city of Christchurch and the Canterbury region have put back many of the pieces of their home and work lives.
22 Feb 2016
BlueNotes debate: bears v bulls in 2016
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
BlueNotes Debates bring together important voices across the business, economic and social spectrum to thrash out where the issues lie. Managing editor Andrew Cornell recently chaired a forum of regional corporate advisory, restructuring and administration professionals to debate their particular take on the outlook for 2016.
17 Feb 2016
Stateometer: stars in the east
Cherelle Murphy & Kirk Zammit | Senior Economist & Former Economist, ANZ
An exceptional second half has left Australia's eastern states in a strong position to combat what is likely to be a tough 2016, according to the latest ANZ Stateometer, with New South Wales and Victoria the standouts.
16 Feb 2016
The line between enough and too much (of other people's money)
Harrison Young | Banker, company director & novelist
John Kay has just been in Australia promoting his new book, Other People's Money – Masters of the Universe or Servants of the People? Thanks to the Grattan Institute, he and I were recently interviewed in front of a couple of hundred people.
12 Feb 2016
Quality, quality and other secrets to export success in Asia
Tania Chapman | Chair, Citrus Australia
Australian food is high quality but with quality comes heightened production and exportation costs. Indeed, Australia has some of the highest costs of production anywhere in the world - but you get what you pay for.
07 Feb 2016
BlueNotes debate: super innovation in superannuation
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Australia has the fourth-largest pool of pension savings in the world and now a government which recognises innovation as critical to economic well-being. So how can we ensure these funds are used to support Australian innovation in a way that supports both industry and super balances?
04 Feb 2016
Right place, right time: the global trade environment in 2016
Tim Harcourt | Author, The Airport Economist
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) which covers 40 per cent of the global economy is soon to be signed by Trade Ministers in Auckland before going to each signatory's respective parliaments.
03 Feb 2016
China's 'V' for recovery ahead
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China's economic landscape is changing as traditionally frantic sectors lose pace while others speed into a 'new normal' era. The cyclical decline of property investment continues to drag on overall growth but our forecasts suggest a V-shaped rebound is on the way.
02 Feb 2016
Hot food in a market of opportunity
Michael Whitehead | Director Industry Insights and Agribusiness, ANZ
Over the decade to 2013, global investments in the food, beverage and agriculture (FB&A) sectors grew three-fold, topping $US100 billion in 2013. In that time, total return to shareholders of 100 major FB&A companies increased by an average of 17 per cent per annum.
28 Jan 2016
Taut, tanned and terrific: Australia's economy on Australia Day
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
Australia Day typically marks the end of summer and start of the calendar year for business downunder. Since breaking for Christmas, Australians have been more focussed on the cricket and tennis than on the economy and financial markets.
21 Jan 2016
Where is the world heading? China, Australian property and the global economy
ANZ Economists |
The economic world is a different place today than it was just a few weeks ago. Fundamentals remain steady but ructions on Chinese markets, Wall St and a New Year's offering of bleak news has a lot of people on edge.
20 Jan 2016
GDP no panacea for China
Li-Gang Liu | Former Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China's below forecast (but still impressive) gross domestic product figures are unlikely to still beating hearts in China which will continue to see heightened levels of market anxiety caused by RMB depreciation, capital flight and equity volatility.
20 Jan 2016
ANZ StateOmeter: broad-based gains
Cherelle Murphy & Kirk Zammit | Senior Economist & Former Economist, ANZ
Housing activity remains elevated around Australia and services industry growth is continuing, new research shows, although the momentum from property is likely to slow throughout the year.
18 Jan 2016
The soft power (and big business) of sport in APAC
James Rose | Freelance journalist, Newsmodo
The likes of Nike, Under Armour and Adidas have a new name with which to contend: China's Wanda Group is moving some heavy weaponry into the global sports branding and marketing sector and is looking to blitz the big boys.
18 Jan 2016
Auckland, the underrated jewel of APEC
David Walker | Director, PWC
Sydney may have the harbour views and Melbourne the lifestyle but new research shows Auckland is the APEC city with both - and more.
11 Jan 2016
The next four quarters – where to from here?
Sally Reid | Global Head of Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
“For last year's words belong to last year's language
And next year's words await another voice".
- “Little Gidding", TS ELIOT
04 Jan 2016
How to defend against the rising tide of corruption
Mark Evans & Freya Hone | Managing Director Transaction Banking & General Manager Compliance, ANZ
From Lance Armstrong to Executives at FIFA and the International Olympic Committee, the modern sporting world has been rocked by stories of corruption. But according to research from PwC the problem is more widespread than sport - and rising quickly.
17 Dec 2015
When will the Fed move next?
Tom Kenny | Senior International Economist, ANZ
The US Federal Reserve has tightened its monetary policy position for the first time in nearly a decade in a move reflecting little change in the central bank’s policy but greater consensus among its members.
16 Dec 2015
Stateometer: multi-year highs
Kirk Zammit & Cherelle Murphy | Economist & Co-Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland are all at multi-year highs for economic activity according to the latest ANZ Stateometer on the back of improved nation-wide business conditions, but downside risks still remain.
09 Dec 2015
Commodities brace for tough 2016 in Asia
Mark Pervan & Paul Deane | Former Head of Commodity Research & Former Senior Agriculture Economist, ANZ
The traditional year-end recovery for global commodities remains unlikely in 2015 and the situation in Asia is no different. All signs point to a similarly tough time in 2016.
23 Nov 2015
NZ or Australia – who is the luckier country?
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
For at least three decades New Zealanders have quietly lamented their lack of 'luck' when it came to natural resources and the performance of their economy relative to the 'lucky country' – Australia.
23 Nov 2015
Inflation globalises, Australian inflation falls
Joanne Masters | Senior Economist, ANZ
An increasingly integrated world is delivering increasing uniformity in inflation across geographies. In part this reflects the commodity price cycle (notably oil) but there is evidence domestic inflation pressures are becoming more sensitive to global forces in a more integrated globe.
18 Nov 2015
Stateometer: Qld on the up
Kirk Zammit & Cherelle Murphy | Economist & Co-Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
Economic rebalancing is continuing slowly throughout Australia despite a downturn in resource construction, according to ANZ's latest 'Stateometer', with Queensland a big improver among the states.
04 Nov 2015
Can Australia meet Asia's growing dairy demand?
Mark Bennett | Head of Australian Agribusiness, ANZ
LCD televisions, fridges, vacuum cleaners. And milk. Milk may be white but it's not your typical white good. For Harvey Norman's Gerry Harvey however, the fit's just fine, thank you. It's a bet that makes sense given new ANZ data showing just how much the dairy industry will need to expand to meet growing Asian demand.
21 Oct 2015
Stateometer: property drives NSW and Vic
Cherelle Murphy & Kirk Zammit | Senior Economist & Former Economist, ANZ
The third edition of ANZ’s Stateometer continues to show Australia’s growth comes off the back of the big states NSW and Victoria. Together these states account for more than 50 per cent of the economy and in large part are fuelled by the surge in residential construction and strongly growing house prices.
12 Oct 2015
Hidden dragon in commercial property market
Jerry Ge | BlueNotes contributing editor
Despite the high profile of Asian, and particularly Chinese, investors in Australian residential property recently they have been playing a stronger but much lower-key role in the commercial property market. Could Chinese investors be the hidden dragon driving the market higher?
09 Oct 2015
Four fundamental concepts of the TPP
Tom Kenny | Senior International Economist, ANZ
After half a decade of negotiations the US, Japan and ten Pacific Rim nations finalised the Trans-Pacific Partnership this week. The specifics of the deal remain unknown, but we can assume the TPP will promote economic interaction between the 12 negotiating countries which represent 40 per cent of the world's GDP.
05 Oct 2015
Five ways to count the marriage equality boom
Cherelle Murphy & Mandeep Kaura | Senior Economist & Former Economic Statistician, ANZ
Marriage equality in Australia would bring economic benefits to the tune of at least $500 million in the form of additional expenditure related to weddings alone.
25 Sep 2015
Brace for rate cuts in 2016
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
Soft global growth will likely force the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates early next year, potentially taking the official cash rate to 1.5 per cent.
14 Sep 2015
From canoes to corridors: the Pacific trade story
Vishnu Mohan | Former CEO Pacific, ANZ
The Pacific was a very different place in the 1800s. It was a time following Captain James Cook's legendary expeditions, when colonial rivalries and empire building marked the beginning of the region's integration into the global scene.
14 Sep 2015
China worries overblown: Smith
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
ANZ CEO Mike Smith has labelled global concerns over the economic health of China overblown and says the bank has no worries over its exposure to the Asian giant.
11 Sep 2015
Why global growth is going nowhere
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
ANZ has lowered its global growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 amid a number of restrictive cyclical and structural themes playing out across the world economy and warned there could be further downgrades ahead.
01 Sep 2015
Introducing the ANZ Stateometer: Big states pull away from the pack
Cherelle Murphy & Kirk Zammit | Senior Economist & Former Economist, ANZ
There are a lot of data out there telling us about how the economy is going. Building approvals, retail sales, the unemployment rate and consumer confidence are a few of the frequent indicators we are inundated with.
27 Aug 2015
Is it time to head for the exits? Economists make the call
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
'Meltdown' was the only word to describe this week's equities price action which combined with plunging commodity prices, led by sharp falls in oil prices, with the CRB index hitting a 13-year low, and near panic across many asset classes.
25 Aug 2015
What else is behind the fall in bank share prices?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Banks obviously will not escape the current market carnage but over the longer term, and across a range of international indices, they are being sold off more than broader markets.
11 Aug 2015
Foreign property buyers in NZ: how much is too much?
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
There are moments in any public debate where a nerve is struck, when suddenly the issue becomes the thing everyone is talking about and triggers a shift in policy.
04 Aug 2015
Regulation: not enough lifeboats. Or too many?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Following the Titanic disaster – the shipwreck not the movie – the global shipping industry and governments vowed to make sea travel safer.
23 Jul 2015
Prepare for the LNG boom
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Spiralling global demand has Australia facing a boom in its gas market similar to the ones seen in other commodities in past years, according to ANZ's head of commodity research, which could see LNG overtake iron ore as the main driver of Australia's exports in the export stakes and help push Australia's trade balance back toward the black.
09 Jul 2015
What went wrong with China’s market
Li-Gang Liu | Former Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Investor confidence is tumbling in China and with it the county’s share prices driven by what has been in our view a rapid deleveraging process. The saga, which has seen billions of yuan wiped off the market, provides participants and regulators with an invaluable lesson on risk and rational investing.
07 Jul 2015
The ageing elephant in the room
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
It's the debate no politician, on either side of the Tasman, really wants to have: how can Australia and New Zealand afford their state-funded pensions as populations age and economic growth rates slow? And it's one increasingly relevant as countries around the region face maturing demographics.
30 Jun 2015
NZ coming off the boil
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
There was a time through 2014 and early 2015 when New Zealand was dubbed a 'rock-star' economy to be envied and studied by its regional neighbours for its 'magic recipe.'
26 Jun 2015
Four themes dominating the thinking of American Corporate treasurers
Tareq Muhmood | CEO Korea & Managing Director Global Subsidiaries, ANZ
I spent the past week in the US talking to corporate treasurers of some of the leading companies in the world.
22 Jun 2015
It's seniors vs the RBA
Katie Hill | Strategist, ANZ
Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Christopher Kent issued a challenge last week. He said it would be useful to look at different types of households to understand whether the transmission of monetary policy through the Australian economy was becoming less effective. We've taken up that challenge.
22 Jun 2015
Infographic: the ChAFTA game changer
BlueNotes reporter |
With the China-Australia free-trade agreement officially signed, it's time for Australian businesses to sit down and work out how they can use the deal to evolve, diversify and take themselves into the Asian century.
12 Jun 2015
The unloved upsides of growth
Jason Murphy | Publisher, Thomas the Think Engine
I really love the life expectancy chart below. It shows humans are living much, much longer, an astonishing triumph that we celebrate not nearly enough. It also can be seen as an explanation of why economic growth is important.
02 Jun 2015
NZ's property pincer movement
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Wellington, New Zealand's capital, is a famously compact place. Politicians, bureaucrats and journalists regularly bump into each other walking up The Terrace and back along Lambton Quay on their way to and from The Beehive - the national parliament building - and the main ministries.
13 May 2015
Australian budget quick take: warm, fuzzy
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
The release of the 2015 Australian federal budget has seen the government maintain its path toward surplus, but at a slower pace than previously announced. The focus appears to be policy changes designed to give it a much warmer glow than last year’s ill-received effort.
08 May 2015
Budget headwinds both sides of the Tasman
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey looked longingly across the Tasman this week at New Zealand's tax system and its much-healthier Government finances but he is not the only one grappling with big economic headwinds in the quest for a surplus.
21 Apr 2015
Deflation – so what?
Sally Reid | Global Head of Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
Expansionary monetary policy - loose interest rate settings and quantitative easing - is fuelling asset price growth across global property, bond, equity and even art markets. According to The Economist, “the global art market is booming”, with sales at a record volume in 2014 while prices for contemporary and post-war art have risen by 19 per cent.
30 Mar 2015
Delivering on NZ's planet-sized trade ambition
David Green | CEO Singapore and Head of South East Asia, India & Middle East, ANZ
For a small country, New Zealand has enormous ambition when it comes to international trade. Our nation of four and a-half million people is a world leader in securing trade agreements.
24 Mar 2015
Negative rates, negative news
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
We are truly in an extraordinary environment when many real interest rates are negative – that is, inflation is higher than the rate being offered on securities like government bonds.
17 Mar 2015
The infrastructure catch – the answer is to unify and diversify
Brad Carr | Director, Institute of International Finance
The latest meeting of G20 Finance Ministers in Istanbul, focussed on growth and job creation, placed particular emphasis on infrastructure investment - not least with this year's G20 president being home to four of the world's 10 fastest growing cities.
12 Mar 2015
Behind the reform agenda of China's national congress
Li-Gang Liu | Former Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China's paramount policy setting confab, the National People's Congress, is in progress and has already delivered some key insights into the shape of the economy. The NPC will carry on into next week and official communications will be closely monitored by the market.
12 Mar 2015
Kiwi bosses more bullish
Bruce Hassall | CEO, PwC New Zealand
New Zealand's “rock star" economy may be peaking but its chief executives remain more optimistic than Australian – and global – peers.
10 Mar 2015
Aus job ads post ninth straight gain
Felicity Emmett | Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
The labour market in Australia improved for the ninth consecutive month in February according to ANZ research, suggesting new labour demand is rising at a moderate pace.
10 Mar 2015
Kiwis, emus fly together
Tim Harcourt | Author, The Airport Economist
New Zealand is famous for its exports. Not just in lamb and dairy but also design, the arts and music. Kiwi women do very well. Think of teenage singer-songwriter sensation Lorde and Eleanor Catton, the youngest person ever to win the Booker prize.
03 Mar 2015
Under the blazing blue
Elizabeth Hayes | Dairy farmer
I miss the days when waking up to the sun brought the promise of fun, watersports and picnics. Now as the sun rises over the Hakataramea Valley, I see my husband wince as it teasingly shines on the greenish-grey, struggling grasses of our once-fertile and lush dairy farm. As a 'reformed' townie, it's taken some time to realise the full impact of what I used to call “The Perfect Summer".
25 Feb 2015
Australia’s major project spend in decline
Dylan Eades & Justin Fabo | Former Researchers, ANZ
The outlook for major project development in Australia has deteriorated, further evidence of a declining resource sector investment phase but also broader factors, notably lower commodity prices and a slower than expected pick-up in non-resource business investment.
20 Feb 2015
BlueNotes Debate – The Outlook for 2015 Part Two: Stress Points
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
BlueNotes Debates bring together important voices across the business, economic and social spectrum to thrash out where the issues lie. Managing editor Andrew Cornell chaired a forum of regional corporate advisory, restructuring and administration professionals to debate their particular take on the outlook.
16 Feb 2015
NZ could host a cricket World Cup parity party
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
The potential for the New Zealand dollar to rise to parity with the Australian dollar is a powerful symbol of how the neighbouring economies have diverged over the last three months.
16 Feb 2015
The biggest economic threats looming in 2015
Nicole Franklin | BlueNotes contributing editor
Geopolitical instability is the biggest threat to the world economy in 2015, according to ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan. Hogan warns the recovery in the US economy must live up to expectations if the world is to improve.
11 Feb 2015
ANZ lowers iron ore forecasts below $US60
Mark Pervan | Former Head of Commodities Research, ANZ
Deteriorating conditions in the iron ore market have forced ANZ to lower its forecasts on the commodity to more normalised levels of below $US60 a tonne in 2015, taking almost a quarter from its previous expectations of $US77.
09 Feb 2015
Australian jobs ads maintain upward momentum
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
The eighth consecutive monthly rise in ANZ job ads is an encouraging sign that new labour demand continues to improve in certain sectors of the Australian economy.
05 Feb 2015
Six themes that will shape NZ’s economy in 2015
Cameron Bagrie | Chief Economist, New Zealand ANZ
After a lung-busting sprint in the wake of the global financial crisis, the New Zealand economy has settled into a quick trot. It’s firmly in expansion mode and it feels like the good times could last for quite a while.
03 Feb 2015
Global softness forced RBA to cut: Chronican
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
The numerous economic troubles facing the world, rather than any one large issue, played a role in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut interest rates to a record low of 2.25 per cent, according to ANZ Australia CEO Phil Chronican.
03 Feb 2015
A new equilibrium in Indonesia
Indonesia is on the cusp of a new ‘golden era’ where the principal arms of economic policy in the country coordinate to implement new President Joko Widodo's development plan.
29 Jan 2015
Australian economy faces new pressures
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
With falling commodity prices, QE in Europe and low inflation figures – how is Australia placed for 2015? Warren Hogan explains.
28 Jan 2015
No need for rate cuts: Mike Smith
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
ANZ CEO Mike Smith has urged the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold fire on interest rates and expressed confidence in the health of the Australian economy.
21 Jan 2015
Central banks are losing their power
Richard Yetsenga & Sam Tuck | Chief Economist & Former Senior FX Strategist, ANZ
The Swiss National Bank not only roiled markets last week but potentially signalled the beginning of the end for the ability for central banks to calm markets.
15 Jan 2015
ANZ cuts Australian growth, rates outlook for 2015
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
ANZ has lowered its growth forecast for the Australian economy and have now factored in two 25 basis point rate cuts over the first half of 2015.
14 Jan 2015
Perfect Australian borrowing conditions
Martin Whetton | Former Senior AUD Rates Strategist, ANZ
For those looking to borrow, the renewed fall in interest rates has delivered near-perfect conditions.
12 Jan 2015
Market calls: a rate cut for H1?
ANZ Research |
A softer inflation outlook could give the Reserve Bank of Australia a little more wriggle room than previously anticipated to support business and consumer confidence and help grow the non-mining economy.
12 Jan 2015
Jobs demand continues to grow
ANZ Research |
There are fresh signs that labour demand is firming in Australia after the number of job advertisements in the country increased for the seventh consecutive month.
09 Jan 2015
Unlocking the potential of NZ’s red meat
Cameron Bagrie & Con Williams | Chief Economist & Agri Economist New Zealand, ANZ
Not all cows are alike. Nor sheep. Nor deer. Over the last two decades the gap between the top 20 per cent of red meat farmers in New Zealand's and the rest has doubled.
08 Jan 2015
Statsnack: Aus home building hits record levels
ANZ Research |
Home building approvals hit an all-time high in Australia in November on the back of a surge in plans for multi-dwelling constructions like apartments.
22 Dec 2014
How NZ’s growth engine can keep running
Mark Hiddleston | General Manager, Commercial & Agri, for Auckland and Northland, ANZ
Auckland's growth story is compelling. The region containing New Zealand's largest city is already home to one in three Kiwis and its population is expected to swell by 40 per cent to around two million by 2030.
22 Dec 2014
Where the Asia-Pac economy is going in 2015
Stewart Brentnall | ANZ Chief Investment Officer
It has been a mixed, sometimes volatile year for the global economy. The good news is ANZ expects 2015 to offer moderate gains in financial markets – albeit with increased volatility - as global economic growth grinds up a gear.
08 Dec 2014
Market calls: no cuts, no glory
ANZ Research |
The market reaction to soft domestic trade data released recently highlights the considerable economic challenges Australia still faces. While US activity remains strong, the third-quarter figures clearly demonstrate our domestic headwinds.
08 Dec 2014
Job ads mark six months of gains
ANZ Research |
The level of job advertisements in Australia have risen for the sixth consecutive month in November adding to growing momentum in Australia’s improving labour market.
04 Dec 2014
Statsnack: housing out of puff
ANZ Research |
A soft outlook for economic growth, ongoing job security concerns and sluggish household income growth will likely moderate house price growth in Australia during 2015.
03 Dec 2014
International investors now more comfortable with ANZ's Asia strategy
Shayne Elliott | Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
Shayne Elliott, ANZ chief financial officer, speaks with BlueNotes about how ANZ's strategy is being received internationally and why fund managers are increasingly engaged in Asia.
01 Dec 2014
ASEAN leads gender parity charge to drive economic growth
Eugenia Victorino | Economist, ANZ
Good news: economic participation within ASEAN is higher than the global average, according to a world Economic Forum report.
01 Dec 2014
Five reasons the China FTA is a game-changer
Mark Whelan | Group Executive, Institutional at ANZ
At ANZ, we’re optimistic about the impact the free trade agreement (ChAFTA) between Australia and China is going to provide for a variety of businesses in Australia, and the nation more generally – for five reasons.
01 Dec 2014
Market calls: another 12 months on hold
ANZ Research |
The Reserve Bank of Australia is not expected to move on interest rates for at least 12 months after ANZ Research pushed back its forecasts for a rate rise until at least November 2015.
28 Nov 2014
Pirates, spies, soul stealers: the spiritual and economic transformation of yoga
Shaheem Black | Fellow, Australian National University
In the past decade the worldwide yoga industry has become a multibillion- dollar business. Yet, ironically, the one country where yoga does not yet thrive commercially is the very place from which yoga is thought to originate: India. Why should this be?
27 Nov 2014
StatSnack: is there a non-mining recovery?
ANZ Research |
The latest capital expenditure data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics continue to suggest the shift towards non-mining drivers of growth is occurring. The survey points to a rise in non-mining investment of just over 5 per cent in 2014-15 in nominal terms, while mining investment is expected to fall sharply.
27 Nov 2014
MoleHill to Mountain: What lies ahead for northern Australian agriculture?
Paul Deane | Former Senior Agricultural Economist
The mining investment boom has peaked. Not so agriculture, which for many is the “next boom”. Consumption of agricultural produce will not reach its peak in Asia for another 40 years. And the implications for the future of farming in Australia are huge.
26 Nov 2014
Tokyo’s 2020 vision
Michael Fitzpatrick | Tokyo-based freelance journalist
The 'Olympics Effect' is one of the most analysed of economic multipliers and like the sports themselves, the results run the gamut from spectacular to tragic. Montreal was infamously nearly bankrupted, Sydney enjoyed a pre-games surge before a decade-long hangover. London appears to have fared well - so far.
24 Nov 2014
Market calls: a lid on inflation
ANZ Research |
Low inflation remains a key theme in the world‘s strongest economy but that could be about to change in two of the world’s most important economic regions.
21 Nov 2014
Statsnack: caution on the wane
ANZ Research |
Consumer caution has been a feature of the Australian economic landscape for some time now, recognisable in higher-than-average deposits, mortgage repayments and household saving rate.
21 Nov 2014
There’s no housing bubble – yet: ANZ Research
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
ANZ’s chief economist Warren Hogan, in an overview of key concerns facing the Australian economy, looks at housing bubbles, the fall of the Australian dollar, interest rates and the China issue.
20 Nov 2014
Aus and NZ – trade deal leapfrog
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Prime Ministers John Key and Tony Abbott will be rightly satisfied with their APEC and G20 work after finalising long-delayed and much-needed trade deals with Korea and China respectively over the weekend.
20 Nov 2014
Statsnack: labour outlook brightens
ANZ Research |
Another round of employment data has again showed labour demand continues to trend higher in Australia, casting further doubt on the veracity of Australia’s official statistics.
18 Nov 2014
Mike Smith: China FTA deal worth the wait
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
There is a saying that good things come to those that wait. The free trade agreement between Australia and China, ten years in the making, has been well worth the wait.
17 Nov 2014
Market calls: Chinese game-changer
ANZ Research |
The big news this week is the Australia-China free trade agreement which, when announced, will reportedly exceed industry forecasts. It's expected the breadth of concessions made by China will benefit Australia to the tune of $18 billion over 10 years, surpassing estimates.
14 Nov 2014
StatSnack: the forgotten benefit of slow wage growth
ANZ Research |
The slowdown in Australian wages growth, while negative for household income and consumption, has broader economic benefits by reducing costs for businesses.
14 Nov 2014
The G20 can make a real difference – and not just for Brisbane
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
Most people living in Brisbane will be acutely aware that the G20 is coming to town. Whether it’s the festival that has seen the city bathed in lights as part of Colour Me Brisbane or today’s public holiday, it hasn’t been a normal working week.
13 Nov 2014
Too much red tape self-applied by business
Chris Richardson & Kristian Kolding | Partner & Director, Deloitte Access Economics
Red tape is choking national productivity and costing Australia $250 billion a year. There are too many rules and regulations.
12 Nov 2014
Iron ore will never recover former peaks
Shane White | Senior production editor, bluenotes
If the iron ore market wasn’t tough enough already, there’s a new forecast out that will have mining executives turning in their sleep: iron will never pass the key $US100 a tonne threshold again.
10 Nov 2014
Market calls: don’t buy the jobs data
ANZ Research |
Recent developments in the labour market are expected to be a key driver of consumer spending, a factor many are looking at for the next step in Australia’s economic growth.
10 Nov 2014
Fieldays: a major player in assuring New Zealand’s economic future
BlueNotes reporter |
NZ Fieldays has become an unrivalled platform for showcasing NZ agricultural expertise and world leadership as well as demonstrating quantifiable economic impact.
07 Nov 2014
Commodity price falls unappreciated boon for ASEAN policy makers
ANZ Research |
Asian policy makers stand to benefit from commodity price disinflation as food and energy prices are plumbing the lowest levels since the great commodity inflation of 2005-08. They have their first opportunity to fundamentally revisit and unwind inefficient policies which effectively tax the allocative efficiency of their economies.
06 Nov 2014
StatSnack: growth data shrinks
ANZ Research |
Last week the Australian Bureau of Statistics released its annual national accounts data. While all economic data is old, these numbers are really old - although the data did offer a more accurate picture of 2013-14 from which forecasts for the coming year can be based.
03 Nov 2014
ANZ Research market calls: hard gains from soft Aussie dollar
ANZ Research |
The Australian growth outlook will be boosted by a softer Australian dollar amid changing expectations about US economic performance, according to ANZ research.
03 Nov 2014
Job ads grow for fifth month
Felicity Emmett | Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
The volume of job advertisements in Australia rose for the fifth consecutive month during October, in further evidence the health of the country’s labour market is turning around.
03 Nov 2014
Asia’s forgotten giant: the sun rises again in Japan
Shane White | Senior production editor, bluenotes
For nearly half a century, Japan was Australia’s number one trading partner. It is still number two. But you wouldn’t know that from much of what you read.
28 Oct 2014
The NZ brain drain turns to a trickle
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
For decades, New Zealand has been a major exporter of people to Australia, a reflection of the relative economic performances of the Trans-Tasman neighbours and sometime rivals.
27 Oct 2014
Market calls: No hard China landing
ANZ Research |
China is unlikely to experience a hard landing and is likely to record a small improvement in momentum in country during the fourth quarter, according to ANZ research.
24 Oct 2014
Why iron ore prices are in the pits
Mark Pervan | Former Head of Commodities Research, ANZ
17 Oct 2014
Four observations from Mike Smith on markets and the economy
Shane White | Senior production editor, bluenotes
ANZ chief executive officer Mike Smith spoke on a range of economic issues as part of The Australian & Deutsche Bank Business Leaders Forum in Melbourne on Friday.
16 Oct 2014
Hard slog ahead for the global economy
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan has warned there is more hard work ahead for the global economy in the short to medium term with further challenges likely to moderate the pace of growth.
15 Oct 2014
The last of the flying-geese economies
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
CLMV? No, it’s not a luxury goods house - though it is increasingly fashionable. It's the acronym used to describe one of the world's most dynamic economic zones - the collective of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam. These ‘Mekong 4’ are the up and comers to watch in the world’s most dynamic region.
13 Oct 2014
Where to now for NZ’s rock star economy?
Sharon Zollner | Associate Director & Senior Economist NZ, ANZ
Growth in New Zealand, dubbed the ‘rock star’ economy in early 2014, has gone from a gallop to a canter as the year has gone on, but a number of factors continue to provide underlying strength, according to ANZ Senior Economist Sharon Zöllner.
10 Oct 2014
StatSnack: it’s an investor’s housing market
ANZ Research |
Fears of valuation troubles in the housing market continue to be fuelled by growing property investor activity, which hit record levels in August.
06 Oct 2014
Job ads rise for fourth month
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
Employment growth in Australia registered its fourth consecutive monthly rise in September with job ads increasing 0.9 per cent, according to the ANZ job advertisements series.
03 Oct 2014
Why NSW is #1
ANZ Research |
If Australian policymakers had their way, there would be a smooth transition to non-mining sources of growth as the mining construction boom fades.
03 Oct 2014
Why the love for US-style BBQ is all about economics
Jason Murphy | Publisher, Thomas the Think Engine
These days, you can’t turn a corner without discovering some old Italian bistro or Chinese restaurant has turned into an American Rib joint.
02 Oct 2014
What the RBA can learn from the RBNZ
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Graeme Wheeler has done it again; defying expectations to intervene in a market to overcome a problem he couldn't fix with conventional monetary policy.
01 Oct 2014
Cool for cats? A new dawn in the land of the rising sun
Tim Harcourt | Author, The Airport Economist
Are there really jazz festivals for pets in northern Japan? And how are demographics and changing gender roles affecting Japan’s economy and society? The Airport Economist explores modern Japan for himself in this excerpt from his new book, Trading Places.
01 Oct 2014
Five ways NZ should get back to business
David Hisco | CEO New Zealand & Group Executive Asia Wealth, Pacific and International Retail, ANZ
With the most resounding mandate in living memory, what’s a third term National Party-led New Zealand Government to do?
26 Sep 2014
StatSnack: investors gear up on property
ANZ Research |
The Reserve Bank of Australia ramped up its rhetoric about the housing market this week and flagged the likely introduction of targeted macroprudential measures.
26 Sep 2014
The secret to better banking
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Banking, according to ANZ’s CEO of International and Institutional Banking Andrew Géczy, is just as much about monetising insight as it about capital.
25 Sep 2014
Up in the air: what lies ahead for road transport?
Mark Ganz | Director Client Insights, ANZ
Drones, unmanned aerial vehicles, are one of the more spectacular risks facing the road transport industry. No longer just science fiction, with companies such as Flirtey in Australia and Amazon’s Prime Air in the US set to launch in 2015, it is easy to see that the transportation sector will need to evolve or get left behind on the ground.
24 Sep 2014
When will consumer confidence recover?
Shane White | Senior production editor, bluenotes
There was a sense of puzzlement at the Spends and Trends conference on Wednesday, hosted by SMI and Mumbrella with the support of ANZ BlueNotes, and it centred on consumer confidence. Why hasn’t it picked up - and if it does, when will it flow through to the advertising and media market?
23 Sep 2014
Five reasons why investors will love the NZ election result
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
At BlueNotes, we’ve already explained why business is the big winners of the NZ election. Today, we break down five reasons why investors are also set to benefit from the re-election of the National Party.
23 Sep 2014
Is there still value in bank stocks?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
There is only one share price, just as there is only one official interest rate. But these truisms are easily forgotten when economists pore over data entrails to foretell the next central bank move.
23 Sep 2014
Don’t write off Chinese property: Mike Smith
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
ANZ CEO Mike Smith has defended the health of the Chinese property market, and warned against extrapolating small amounts of regional data and applying it across the country.
22 Sep 2014
Business the big winners of the NZ election
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Investors looking at New Zealand's election result from across the Tasman and up in North Asia should be breathing a big sigh of relief. They may even open a bottle of champagne or two at the re-election, for a third term, of a centre-right government with a strong mandate for economic reform.
19 Sep 2014
BlueNotes StatSnack: Rates react to US strength
ANZ Research |
Australian events were overshadowed on the local market this week by the US Federal Reserve which continued to signal interest rates in the world’s largest economy will stay low for some time.
17 Sep 2014
How mobile payment systems dodge the hackers
Craig Sims | Group General Manager Operations & Services, ANZ
When it comes to innovation in financial services, mobile payment systems are one of the big game changers. More and more customers are banking digitally.
16 Sep 2014
The main game in India-Australia trade
Tim Harcourt | Author, The Airport Economist
Prime Minister Tony Abbott surprised pundits last week when he put a free trade agreement between Australian and India on the table at a gathering in New Delhi. Among those most surprised was India itself, given that an FTA was barely mentioned in talks at that point, as the two U's - uranium and university students - dominated proceedings.
15 Sep 2014
The seven strangest things in the NZ election twilight zone
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Viewed from afar, New Zealand's election campaign and the possible outcome may seem downright bizarre.
15 Sep 2014
Data can’t stop $A capitulation
ANZ Research |
The Australian dollar declined sharply last week despite a wave of strong economic data. Surprisingly, the downward momentum in the currency was sustained in the face of extraordinarily strong Australian employment figures.
12 Sep 2014
NZ needs to build for the future
David Green | CEO Singapore and Head of South East Asia, India & Middle East, ANZ
The New Zealand economy has been one of the high performers among developed countries in recent times. But future growth is at risk of outpacing the country’s capacity. And the infrastructure plans that will help New Zealand capture this growth opportunity cannot all be funded from public sector sources.
11 Sep 2014
Australian small business following the US sector down – but can also learn from the US response
Amanda Gome | Former head of digital and social media, ANZ
BlueNotes recently revealed thats there has been a 30 per cent decrease in the number of start-ups in Australia in the last three years, from 342,753 in the 2010 financial year to 239,229 in 2013. That’s pretty big news. Add to that a decline in operating firms, and a big red flag should be waving.
10 Sep 2014
Where is all the cash?
Lance Blockley | Managing Director Consulting, RFi Group
Speaking at the BlueNotes-sponsored Australian Payments Innovation forum 2014, RFi managing director Lance Blockley produced this slide, which provides a fascinating insight into where Australian cash is actually held.
09 Sep 2014
Bank capital blow up
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
In Michelangelo Antonioni’s 1960s counter-culture classic Blow-Up, a hip photographer inadvertently captures what may be evidence of a murder in the background of a picture he’s taken.
09 Sep 2014
Push into Asia and beat the rush
Mark Whelan | Group Executive, Institutional at ANZ
One theme dominated ANZ’s Opportunity Asia lunch last week in Melbourne, co-hosted with The Australian Financial Review. That theme was: is now the best time to expand in Asia?
08 Sep 2014
What do activist shareholders have in their sights?
Alberto Colla | Corporate Partner, Minter Ellison Melbourne
Activist shareholders are a permanent force in security markets today, but their motives and strategies are not always identical. But there are three areas on which institutional shareholders and dedicated engagement funds are most likely to focus their activist activities in the current financial year.
08 Sep 2014
Job ads jump again in August
Justin Fabo | Former Senior Economist, ANZ
A solid gain in the number of job advertisements in August suggests conditions in the labour market are improving slowly, according to the ANZ job advertisements series, Australia’s leading employment and economic activity indicator.
05 Sep 2014
Phil Ruthven: Five things to think about Asia
Phil Ruthven | Futurist and Founder, IBIS
Futurist and IBIS Founder Phil Ruthven gave ANZ’s Opportunity Asia Insight Series function in Melbourne five critical insights
05 Sep 2014
Should you be worried about the iron ore price?
ANZ Research |
National accounts data revealed this week that growth in the Australian economy slowed in the second quarter, following strong growth earlier this year.
29 Aug 2014
Transition to a non-mining Australian economy on track
ANZ Research |
The handover of growth from mining to other areas of the Australian economy looks on track with this week’s CAPEX report providing more good news on this front.
22 Aug 2014
De facto monetary policy easing confirms next rate move is up
ANZ Research |
The Reserve Bank of Australia this week reiterated a point made in its recent statement on monetary policy that lending rates in Australia have fallen this year despite the cash rate being on hold.
15 Aug 2014
Wages growth low, business looking up
ANZ Research |
The rebalancing of the Australian economy is continuing but with little risk to inflation. In July wages growth was soft and business conditions and confidence was improving, as measured by National Australia Bank business survey.
11 Aug 2014
What can lipsticks, condoms and burgers tell us about economics?
Nicole Franklin | BlueNotes contributing editor
Economic data is a mess. There’s so much of it, all the time, full of jargon, incomprehensible. That’s why everyone loves an index. There are lots of good, simple, proxies out there for economic activity that are far more understandable – and entertaining – than a 25 page economist report. Here are a few to tickle your fancy and put a spark into your next company presentation.
08 Aug 2014
Aus unemployment rate to remain elevated
ANZ Research |
ANZ is wary of reading too much into the July labour force report. We note it was an odd jump in the unemployment rate, at least partly due to statistical issues.
08 Aug 2014
Favourable labour market could see India rival China as world’s largest economy
Glenn Maguire | Former Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, ANZ
India is on track to rival China as the largest economy in the world in 2075 in real terms - if it can overcome some key hurdles.
07 Aug 2014
Vietnamese supermarkets restrained by bikie culture
Tareq Muhmood | CEO Korea & Managing Director Global Subsidiaries, ANZ
In a recent conversation with the CEO of one of Vietnam's hypermarkets, he told me when they opened their first such huge store he didn’t realise the average spend per customer would be so low.
01 Aug 2014
Global and domestic economic conditions slowly improving
ANZ Research |
Key indicators of Australian firms’ investment intentions have improved and a recovery in non-mining business investment is underway. There has been early improvement in business profitability and resilient confidence.
31 Jul 2014
Consumer confidence claws back to pre-budget levels
Warren Hogan & Savita Singh | Former Chief Economist & Bonds Rates Trader, ANZ
Consumer confidence rose a further 2.4 per cent to 116.2 in the week ending 27th July and has now completely retraced the sharp deterioration seen in the weeks around the Commonwealth budget. This suggests the ‘sticker shock’ from the budget was temporary, with the improvement in house prices and employment and recent signs of a pick-up in activity in the global economy likely supporting confidence at long-run average levels.
28 Jul 2014
Stable inflation keeps currency watchers guessing
ANZ Research |
Looking through the statistical noise in recent quarters suggests underlying inflation near the middle of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2-3 per cent target band in six-month-ended annualised terms.
22 Jul 2014
New Zealand's Māori economy: a powerful force in the Kiwi success story
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
This year's Matariki or Māori New Year Festival marked a major milestone for both Māori business and the New Zealand economy.
19 Jul 2014
Mike Smith: three key steps for global growth and better governance
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
It would be wrong to say we have come through the worst financial and economic crisis in living memory – because we are still coming through it. We may be out of intensive care but, to extend the medical metaphor, we are now dealing with a chronic malaise rather than an acute one.
18 Jul 2014
Recovery for the Aus non-mining sector improving
ANZ Research |
Prospects for the recovery of the non-mining sector in Australia continued to improve this week.
11 Jul 2014
Aus labour market slows as the economy rebalances
ANZ Research |
The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose back to its cyclical high of 6 per cent in June and employment growth slowed this quarter. Labour market conditions have softened in recent months following a strong start to the year.
10 Jul 2014
Property drives first phase of the non-mining recovery
Victoria Kanevsky | Contributing editor, BlueNotes
Confidence across the property industry remains at near record-high levels, highlighting the critical role construction is playing in leading the recovery in the non-mining economy.
07 Jul 2014
Aust job ads rebound in June, positive trend but negative budget mood remains
Felicity Emmett | Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
A partial rebound in Australian job ads provides encouraging signs for the labour market, according to the ANZ job advertisements series, a leading employment and economic activity indicator.
04 Jul 2014
Aussie dollar dips on RBA governor comments on stable rates and stronger US data
ANZ Research |
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens confirmed the $A remains uncomfortably high and he felt "investors are under-estimating the likelihood of a significant fall in the Australian dollar at some point".
04 Jul 2014
Remember NSW? It’s a leading economy once more
Phil Chronican | Former CEO ANZ Australia
A decade ago it would have been a bit obvious to say NSW was driving the Australian economy but it does actually sound slightly odd to be saying that today. After all, NSW has no iron ore, no LNG, tourism slumped in the decade after the Olympics and NSW property prices have lagged the rest of the country.
02 Jul 2014
Mining exports boom as investment falls away
Felicity Emmett | Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
Exports from mining over the next three years will contribute 1 percentage point to Australia’s GDP growth – enough to provide a solid offset to the decline in mining investment many fear will drag back the economy.
01 Jul 2014
Big fall in start ups a jarring wake-up call
Amanda Gome & Nicole Franklin | Former head of digital and social media, ANZ & BlueNotes contributing editor
Australian start-up numbers have fallen an alarming 30 per cent over the last three years, crunching the number of operating firms, according to new figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The alarming fall raises serious questions about whether there is a lack of an enterprise culture in Australia, a threat to long term employment prospects.
30 Jun 2014
China’s impending consumption boom
Li-Gang Liu & Raymond Yeung | Former Chief Economist Greater China & Chief Economist, Greater China, ANZ
China’s private consumption-to-GDP ratio is far below the average international average. According to the World Bank, private consumption represented 60 per cent of world GDP in 2012. For countries categorised as the middle-income group – to which China belonged in 2012 – the average consumption ratio was 55 per cent of GDP, or 19 percentage points higher than that of China.
26 Jun 2014
China must risk higher growth to implement needed reforms
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
The Chinese government must navigate the implementation of economic reforms while maintaining growth at a pace sufficient to keep unemployment steady. This is a difficult task for any government, and particularly so for the Chinese government right now, as many critical reforms to the economy will be potentially disruptive to growth. This is happening while many analysts and markets are worried about a loss of momentum in the Chinese economy.
24 Jun 2014
Inflating Asia: Supply side pressures set to trouble Southeast Asian states
ANZ Research |
Inflation is rising in Southeast Asia. Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines have all released inflation figures for May and all recorded upside surprises – perhaps a portent of a more generalised inflation dynamic to emerge over the second half of the year. Producer price inflation, the traditional leading indicator of headline inflation, has clearly turned up over the past year. In the case of economies such as Indonesia the pick-up has been quite marked.
23 Jun 2014
New Zealand’s Bull – or Cow – Rush
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
In the huge produce hall at Fieldays in Hamilton New Zealand, the southern hemisphere’s largest agricultural trade fair, a sausage and small goods maker was lamenting how difficult he was finding it to secure supplies of top quality beef and lamb.
20 Jun 2014
The shine’s returning to the Emerald City
ANZ Research |
The unemployment rate in Sydney has fallen below 5 per cent compared with a jobless rate of more than 6 per cent for the rest of Australia.
20 Jun 2014
Migration flows shift Australian economy
ANZ Research |
Australian migration is shifting away from the resource intensive states for the first time in more than a decade, according to new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and ANZ Research.
16 Jun 2014
NZ leads the rate world
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has stepped further out on its own with last week’s tightening monetary policy again at a time when the rest of the developed world's central banks are either holding rates at record lows or printing money.
13 Jun 2014
Job ads consistent with slower jobs growth
ANZ Research |
Job growth in Australia slowed in May, consistent with other domestic indicators in the second quarter.
12 Jun 2014
Can Australia afford its future?
Rodney Maddock | Adjunct Professor of Economics, Monash University
There was a lot of concern during the crisis about Australia’s dependence on the inflow of foreign capital needed to fund its economy. There are really two separate elements to the issue: will we continue to depend on foreign capital and, if so, is there any risk of it being cut off?
11 Jun 2014
Supply side of Asian economy is changing quickly
Glenn Maguire | Former Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, ANZ
Supply side of Asian economy is changing quickly.
10 Jun 2014
Job ads down sharply in May
Justin Fabo | Former Senior Economist, ANZ
Job ads fell for the first time in five months following a slump in consumer confidence linked to the federal budget, according to the ANZ Job advertisements series, a leading employment and economic activity indicator.
06 Jun 2014
Can Australian business confidence hold up?
ANZ Research |
Business confidence is proving more resilient to the confidence hit from the Commonwealth budget than consumer confidence.
03 Jun 2014
Consumer confidence surprises on upside
Amanda Gome | Former head of digital and social media, ANZ
Australian consumer confidence has bounced back after a recent plunge, the first, albeit tentative, sign of Australians shaking off their recent funk. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey has turned around after its recent plunge, rising 2.9 per cent in the week ending 1 June - the first increase since negative news flow related to the Budget began six weeks ago.
03 Jun 2014
Migration to New Zealand is rising
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
In a year when house prices and interest rates are already going to be major election themes, strong migration flows become even more polarising than usual. And migration is never politically easy.
30 May 2014
Non-mining capex intentions improve modestly
ANZ Research |
There are mixed messages for the Australian economy, with new risks emerging over the past month for Australia’s growth outlook. New downside forces are minor but they do temper the strong start to the year.
27 May 2014
A Chinese global currency is approaching
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor bluenotes
Delivering his opening remarks to the second Australia-Hong Kong RMB Trade and Investment Dialogue, Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief executive Norman Chan outlined the enormous growth in usage of the Chinese currency internationally since the first tentative openings just three years ago.
23 May 2014
Budget blues weaken consumer confidence in Australia
ANZ Research |
This week in Australia, the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index fell a further 3.2 per cent to 100.4.
23 May 2014
What’s driving New Zealand’s ‘rock star economy’?
Cameron Bagrie | Chief Economist, New Zealand ANZ
What’s driving New Zealand’s ‘rock star economy’?
16 May 2014
Can the Abbott government achieve its budget aspirations?
ANZ Research |
The Australian federal budget delivered only a mild tightening of fiscal policy (with a deficit of $A30 billion forecast for 2014-15) and set the ball rolling on its long-term aspiration of returning the budget to a surplus of at least 1 per cent of GDP within a decade.
16 May 2014
Eco migrants head back to NZ with growth, tax cuts in the budget
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Just as Australians are digesting news of a tax hike, New Zealanders can look forward over the next four years at the prospect of tax cuts, budget surpluses and a steady reduction in public debt.
14 May 2014
Outlook solid, politics the issue with budget
ANZ Research |
The first Abbott-Hockey budget delivers a mild fiscal tightening in the 2014-15 year with most of the announced savings not hitting until after the 2016 election. The biggest changes will not arrive until after the four-year estimate period.
13 May 2014
A tale of two budgets
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
The Australian and New Zealand Budgets this week illustrate the contrasting outlooks for the two economies. And the distinctly divergent approaches of their Governments over the last three years.
12 May 2014
Much more than a quarry to Australia’s business landscape
Catherine Welch | Researcher, The University of Sydney Business School
Mining companies deliver 54 per cent of Australia’s goods exports by value, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). But those same statistics show that these miners represent only 1 per cent of the number of Australian goods exporters.
09 May 2014
Australian consumer confidence shaken by budget leaks
ANZ Research |
australian-consumer-confidence-shaken-by-budget-leaks.
09 May 2014