Given the weight of other positive evidence regarding the state of the economy, ANZ Research is not reading too much into the turn in the index at present.
Mid-winter is the trough for raw truck movements and timing/weather effects could be at play. Indeed, the data are volatile and a solid bounce-back in August seems the most likely outcome.
However, it is worth noting due to its timeliness the Heavy Traffic Index would be expected to be out of synch with other indicators precisely at turning points. But if August doesn’t bring the expected solid bounce-back we’ll start to wonder what’s going on under the hood of this economy.
KEEP ON TRUCKIN'