11 Jul 2024
Celebrating First Nations Strength
bluenotes contributors |
Showcasing our First Nations stories
Economics
27 Jun 2024
Unlocking the economic strength of First Nations
Shelley Cable | Head of First Nations Strategy, Australia
A first of its kind in corporate Australia, Shelley Cable’s role as Head of First Nations Strategy for Australia will focus on establishing a First Nations Strategy that finds the common ground and win-win opportunities for ANZ and First Nations together.
17 Jun 2024
Australian housing: signs of slowdown
Blair Chapman | Senior Economist, ANZ
Growth in Australia’s largest housing markets is showing signs of slowdown as population growth slows alongside an increase in available housing.
05 Jun 2024
Walking the India-Taiwan economic corridor
Rufus Pinto & David Leong | Country Head India & CEO Taiwan, ANZ
While it might seem an unlikely partnership, the India-Taiwan economic corridor is strong and has several drivers which could boost its significance for both countries.
29 May 2024
Where to from here on reconciliation?
Ian Hamm | Chair and Board Member, First Nations Foundation
For Yorta Yorta man Ian Hamm, the failure of last year’s Voice referendum means this year’s Reconciliation Week is different. Now is the time to embrace economic empowerment.
15 May 2024
BUDGET 24-25: the key points
Adam Boyton | Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton brings you the key measures from the Federal Budget.
15 May 2024
BUDGET 24-25: a contested environment
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
How will consumer confidence respond to the Australian Federal Budget? Richard Yetsenga shares his thoughts.
13 May 2024
Bigger slice of the steak pie
Madeleine Swan | Director of FBA Insights, ANZ
Australia’s beef industry has embraced new technology and export markets – but it’s also taken a smarter approach to the supply chain.
07 May 2024
Elliott: boosting investment for growth
Brett Foley | Managing Editor, bluenotes
ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott says despite inflation’s impact across the economy, the bank’s transformation and diversification saw it deliver a strong first half result.
01 May 2024
Searching for the good oil
Michael Whitehead | Executive Director for Agribusiness Industry Insights, ANZ
Australians love olive oil, but prices are skyrocketing. How will this impact the nation’s dinner tables?
29 Apr 2024
Silver mining playbook
Daniel Hynes & Soni Kumari | Senior Commodity Strategist & CAIA Commodity Strategist, ANZ
The silver market is structurally undersupplied and industrial demand is up. Will silver finally outpace gold this year?
24 Apr 2024
Tackling the rental crisis
Jeff Whalley | Senior Journalist, ANZ
How does Australia unravel the rental crisis? ANZ’s expert panel examined factors – such as supply, alleviating skills shortages and productivity – that could bring change.
22 Apr 2024
Searching for the right housing formula
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Most focus falls on supply issues in the housing affordability debate – but a broader view on the use of existing stock has the potential to be more effective.
17 Apr 2024
Waxing lyrical
Jeff Whalley | Senior Journalist, ANZ
Why is the humble vinyl record experiencing a billion-dollar global resurgence? It’s about music lovers building likeminded communities, including at ANZ.
16 Apr 2024
Inflation heading for a soft landing
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
To avoid recessions, economists want global inflation to slow at a conservative pace. But atypical economic movements leaves the outlook uncertain.
11 Apr 2024
Aussie beef: A steer in the right direction
Jeff Whalley | Senior Journalist, ANZ
From US hamburgers to global fine dining, Australian beef is everywhere. But what next for this critical commodity?
10 Apr 2024
Election season in Asia
Bansi Madhavani | Senior Economist, ANZ
Powerhouse economies India and South Korea face elections. What does this mean for their economic growth and for the region?
27 Mar 2024
Eggonomics: the hidden cost of Easter
Michael Whitehead | Executive Director for Agribusiness Industry Insights, ANZ
How will the astronomical price of cocoa – the main ingredient in chocolate – impact your sweet tooth this Easter?
26 Mar 2024
Why Australians love pre-loved property
Shannon McMahon | Managing Director, Home Loans, ANZ
With sales of existing homes dominating Australian housing transactions, the decisions made by existing owners - upgrading, renovating or staying put – can have a huge impact on the market.
22 Feb 2024
India defying expectations
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
India has made remarkable economic progress. But now it is in search of sustaining growth.
21 Feb 2024
Taking a responsible approach to investing
Helen Skinner | Head of Responsible Investment, ANZ New Zealand Investments Limited
Getting responsible investing right is often a dialogue. This is how to get the conversation started.
15 Feb 2024
Solid foundation for financial wellbeing
Jeff Whalley | Senior Journalist, ANZ
Financial health is a lot like physical health. We don’t think about it until things go wrong. But discoveries by behavioural scientists are changing the approach to helping customers.
13 Feb 2024
Tightening the belt on fashion
Adelaide Timbrell & Madeline Dunk | Senior Economist & Economist, ANZ
The normal post-holidays spending lull is back, but ANZ data also shows weaker spending on non-food retail such as electronics and fashion.
11 Dec 2023
In Charts: Australia’s Black Friday spending splash
Adelaide Timbrell & Madeline Dunk | Senior Economist & Economist, ANZ
Australians upped their Black Friday spending – but what did they splash out on? And what was the popular category they spent less on this year?
28 Nov 2023
The housing hurdles
Adelaide Timbrell & Eliza Owen | Senior Economist, ANZ Institutional and Head of Australian Research, CoreLogic Australia
The great Australian housing dream has faced it’s fair share of challenges – but some interesting divergences are appearing in the market and what’s in store for 2024?
16 Nov 2023
Australian shoppers adapt to changing economic landscape
Sweta Mehra | Managing Director, Everyday Banking, ANZ
With inflation rising and Black Friday sales and Christmas approaching, saving money has become a priority for shoppers. In the digital era, savvy spenders are using tools to help them reach their budgeting goals.
13 Nov 2023
Elliott: record result driven by all divisions
Brett Foley | Managing Editor, bluenotes
ANZ delivered its highest ever revenue and cash profit amid a record full year result for 2023, driven by consistent performances across all divisions.
13 Nov 2023
Faruqui: diversified revenue delivers amid volatility
Brett Foley | Managing Editor, bluenotes
ANZ’s Chief Financial Officer says the bank’s investment in diversified income streams paid off in a year of global uncertainty and volatility.
01 Nov 2023
A scary surprise: the price of chocolate
Michael Whitehead | Executive Director for Agribusiness Industry Insights, ANZ
If you noticed the cost of your Halloween stockpile this week was up, you weren’t alone. And there’s a good reason why the neighbourhood kids may have got less confectionary in their basket than last year.
16 Oct 2023
Delicate touchdown?
Adam Boyton | Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
The Australian economic runway seems prepared for a soft landing – what can go wrong from here?
13 Oct 2023
In Charts: consumer confidence lifts to seven-month high
Adelaide Timbrell & Arindam Chakraborty | Senior Economist, ANZ & Economist, ANZ Institutional
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index is trending up. Consumer confidence rose 1.9 points last week amid continued reports of cost of living pressures.
02 Oct 2023
Infrastructure key to unlocking the Blue Pacific
Sarah Stubbings | ANZ Regional Executive, Pacific
The Pacific has enormous optimism and opportunity. To ensure economic growth and better living standards, the region must address the infrastructure investment gap.
26 Sep 2023
The business of risk and worry
Kevin Corbally | Chief Risk Officer, ANZ
As ANZ’s Chief Risk Officer it is Kevin Corbally’s job to worry, but what he worries about might not be what you think.
31 Aug 2023
As the cost of living soars, every dollar counts
Brett Foley | Managing Editor, bluenotes
Households are looking for ways to save as bills rise. Cashrewards allows customers to cash back on their purchases.
30 Aug 2023
Get on board the India train
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Its growth doesn’t fit any pattern seen before, but everyone wants to be a part of the India journey. First you need to understand the nuance of this country of 1.4 billion people.
04 Aug 2023
China and India: switching lanes?
Daniel Hynes, Soni Kumari & Dhiraj Nim | Senior Commodities Analyst, Commodities Strategist & Economist/FX Strategist, ANZ
By 2030 India’s growth is expected to speed up, China’s is expected to slow – what does this mean for the materials used to build both nations’ futures?
02 Aug 2023
Barbenheimer: the movies and the RBA
Jeff Whalley | Senior Journalist, ANZ
Barbenheimer is making headlines, but so is the Reserve Bank's tightening. It creates an interesting picture of Australian spending.
01 Aug 2023
A recession by degrees
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Not all recessions are equal. And Australia, with its increasingly cautious consumers and investors, is well positioned to weather any economic ructions.
31 Jul 2023
India’s push to become global growth engine
Sunjay Mathur, Dhiraj Nim & Arindam Chakraborty | Chief Economist, Southeast Asia/India, Economist/FX Strategist, Economist, ANZ
India’s economy is growing, but reform must continue. At stake is the prosperity of millions.
24 Jul 2023
Riding the once in a century wave
Lakshman Anantakrishnan | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Private
A major crisis hits humanity every 80 to 100 years. We are now due. How should we invest for this?
20 Jul 2023
An energy efficient path to reducing emissions
Shane White | Content Manager, Institutional, ANZ
Meeting climate targets is about doing sensible, cost-effective things now - including updating the electricity network – to make energy use more efficient.
13 Jul 2023
Farewell to the Editor
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
This is my final column as managing editor of bluenotes. It has been an enormously fascinating experience and bluenotes will remain a great success, produced by a wonderful team. So keep reading, keep subscribing and thanks.
10 Jul 2023
Don’t confuse late with not coming
Lakshman Anantakrishnan | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Private
We’ve dodged a recession – so far. Things could get ugly if it does come knocking on the back of further interest rate hikes.
04 Jul 2023
Plenty of time to shine
Fiona Mackenzie | Managing Director, Funds Management, ANZ NZ
Gen Z have time on their side but recent market ructions mean many are experiencing financial losses for the first time – how they react is all important.
30 May 2023
India – what’s all the excitement about?
Rufus Pinto | Country Head, India, ANZ Institutional
India has a remarkable history and story unlike any other. As it becomes the world’s most populous nation, it’s greatest chapter may still to be written.
05 Apr 2023
Japan and Australia: partners in decarbonisation and energy security
Ian Williams, Damien Roberts and Edward Watson | Senior Adviser, Partner & Solicitor, Herbert Smith Freehills
Japan and Australia’s already strong relationship has undergone a “step-change” in the past 18 months. They are now becoming trusted partners in decarbonisation and energy security.
15 Mar 2023
When the liquidity tide goes out – gradually, then suddenly
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
28 Feb 2023
Will the fixed rate roll-off cause a recession or will low unemployment save the day?
Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economist, ANZ
Higher interest rates mean mortgages are more expensive; many fear a recession. But the low unemployment rate and strong demand for workers brings hope to economists.
16 Feb 2023
Tall stories about the economy
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
The world in economic downfall… Fake news?
13 Feb 2023
New Zealand Outlook: Brake Point
Miles Workman | Senior NZ Economist, ANZ
Recession looms in New Zealand as inflation crackdown bites.
10 Feb 2023
China reopens; Australia wins
Felicity Emmett, Raymond Yeung, Adelaide Timbrell & Madeline Dunk | Senior Economist, Chief Economist, Senior Economist, Economist, ANZ
China’s move past COVID lockdowns is good news for the Australian economy
09 Feb 2023
India: already risen and rising
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
With a GDP per capita of USD2,500, ranking 185th in the world, India’s growing economic scale is something to watch.
16 Nov 2022
Australian retail outlook – spending up, confidence down, sales peaks shifting
Tim Suffield & Daniel Ling | Head of Client Insights Institutional, ANZ & Associate Director Insights, ANZ Institutional
With Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales becoming annual events on the retail shopping calendar, how are household spending habits changing?
14 Nov 2022
Queensland’s perfect storm of growth
Shane White | Content Manager, Institutional, ANZ
The economic opportunity in Queensland is significant but it comes with challenges.
09 Nov 2022
The end of the world as we know it
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Globalisation is in retreat, the environment is besieged, wealth disparity is growing. It’s not the fault of capitalism but those who promote liberal, open economies must take notice.
04 Nov 2022
Australian wages growth measures tell different stories. What’s going on?
Catherine Birch | Senior Economist, ANZ
As Australians struggle with inflation and the cost of living, not everyone is benefitting from higher average earnings.
26 Oct 2022
Budget 2022: the flow-on effects for business
Jenefer Stewart | General Manager Business Banking, ANZ
Budget 2022: the flow-on effects for businessSmall businesses can expect more consistent spending if the Budget helps curb the inflationary pressures affecting households, ANZ General Manager Business, Banking Jenefer Stewart explains.
26 Oct 2022
YETSENGA: Budget 2022, reframing the narrative
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
ANZ Chief Economist explains how the ALP government has taken advantage of its first Budget to reset the parameters, the narrative and the framework of Australia’s economic story.
19 Oct 2022
Global risk outlook: sunny with chance of storms
Kevin Corbally | Chief Risk Officer, ANZ
Kevin Corbally, ANZ’s Chief Risk Officer, discusses the current risk climate in Australia and globally in this bluenotes podcast.
29 Sep 2022
The Emergence of the ‘First Time Rate Risers’ (FiTeRRs)
Alan Shields | Chief Data Officer, RFi Group
If you are under 35, it’s almost certain you haven’t been a borrower through a rising interest rate cycle. Are young borrowers prepared for higher loan payments?
27 Sep 2022
Emerging Economics Series: Where to now for Australian housing?
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
It is an inflexion point for Australian residential property with the first sustained rising interest rates cycle in nearly two decades. What does it mean for home owners and renters?
26 Aug 2022
Economic shorts: Inflation insights
Catherine Birch | Senior Economist, ANZ
Strong demand and supply constraints are key drivers of inflation in Australia
09 Aug 2022
New Zealand’s economy: on the edge
Miles Workman | Senior NZ Economist, ANZ
As central banks grapple with inflation and labour shortfalls, New Zealand’s economy will be hoping for a boost from exports and unemployment
05 Aug 2022
Economic shorts: The Labour Force Redeploys
Catherine Birch | Senior Economist, ANZ
While inflation is on the rise a strong labour market may insulate the Australian economy from a sharp deterioration.
04 Aug 2022
Higher Rates and inflation: ending Australia’s decade in the economic doldrums
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
With the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking interest rates, how much of those increases will be permanent?
22 Jul 2022
The checkout: tracking Aussie food prices
Madeleine Swan | Director of FBA Insights, ANZ
Australian food bills have increased by more than many other developed countries because of the country’s status as a major food exporter to booming Asian economies.
10 Jun 2022
Global food stocks consumed by shortage
Soni Kumari & Susan Kilsby | Commodity Strategist & Agriculture Economist, ANZ
A perfect storm of issues is leading to increased food insecurity. And this global crisis will get worse.
26 May 2022
IN CHARTS: construction delays don’t impact demand
Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economist, ANZ
Australia’s construction industry fell behind in the first quarter of 2022. But it wasn’t from a lack of demand.
23 May 2022
Election aftermath: a new era of policy
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga examines the issues that will dominate the economic agenda post-election.
20 May 2022
Kiwi economy: tougher times ahead?
Miles Workman | Senior NZ Economist, ANZ
New Zealand, like many nations globally, is facing into a very different economic environment for the remainder of 2022 and beyond.
19 May 2022
Stateometer: trade drives momentum
Bansi Madhavani | Senior Economist, ANZ
Sharp increase in trade drove economic momentum in the first quarter, the ANZ Stateometer shows, despite a slew of challenges.
02 May 2022
Economic shorts: watching rates, inflation
Adelaide Timbrell & Catherine Birch | Senior Economists, ANZ
There is a lot of focus on inflation and cash rates in Australia today – and there will be more. But what happens when they move and how does it impact the economy?
29 Mar 2022
Budget 2022-23: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
ANZ has full coverage, analysis and opinion on the release of the 2022-23 Australian Federal Budget and what this means for individual, businesses – big and small – and the economy.
03 Mar 2022
Monitoring the economic damage of crisis
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine shouldn’t have a major global economic impact outside of Europe. For now.
28 Jan 2022
Tonga recovery: one day at a time
Kishti Sen & Tom Kenny | International Economist & Senior International Economist, ANZ
The road to recovery for the Tongan community will be tough. Support from neighbouring nations is essential.
25 Jan 2022
IN CHARTS: commodities navigate supply risks
Daniel Hynes, Soni Kumari & Dhiraj Nim | Senior Commodities Analyst, Commodities Strategist & Economist/FX Strategist, ANZ
A range of supply disruptions are threatening to blow commodities such as energy off course in 2022.
21 Jan 2022
LONGREAD: inflation costs us all but some more than others
Finn Robinson & Sharon Zollner | Economist & Chief Economist NZ at ANZ
With inflation running at increasingly high levels, low-income Kiwis are really starting to feel the pinch.
18 Nov 2021
A clearer path to a sustainable transition
Mark Whelan | Group Executive Institutional, ANZ
Financial services companies have a clearer framework for sustainability investments in the wake of the COP26 conference in Glasgow.
10 Aug 2021
Retail remains resilient amid re-emerging crisis
Adelaide Timbrell & David Plank | Economist & Head of Aus Economics, ANZ
Household spending in Australia should snap back quickly after lockdowns with working from home a key driver.
12 Jul 2021
Macroprudential controls needed to cool housing market
Felicity Emmett & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists, ANZ
ANZ Research expects stronger home loan regulations to be introduced in Australia before the end of the year.
20 May 2021
Stateometer: greater momentum
Bansi Madhavani, Catherine Birch & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists and Economist, ANZ
ANZ’s Stateometer shows economic momentum in Australia’s states and territories is building.
12 May 2021
Budget 2021: the biggest wins for business
Jenefer Stewart | General Manager Business Banking, ANZ
Tax breaks, incentives for skilled labour and addressing digital security stand out for business in Australian budget.
12 May 2021
Budgeting for equality
Felicity Emmett | Senior Economist, ANZ
From an equity perspective, the 2021 Federal Budget has taken the right steps.
12 May 2021
VIDEO: the return of fiscal policy
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Speaking on video, the ANZ Chief Economist says budget pushes the fiscal boundaries – and is right to do so.
12 May 2021
Budget 2021: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
bluenotes presents comprehensive coverage of the 2021-22 Australian Federal Budget.
12 May 2021
The budget in pictures
Adelaide Timbrell & Hayden Dimes | Economists, ANZ
See all the key announcements from the 2021-2022 Australian Federal Budget in this infographic.
11 May 2021
A stimulatory budget
ANZ Research |
Budget shows strong commitment to spend until unemployment is below pre-COVID-19 levels.
30 Mar 2021
IN CHARTS: The divided states of COVID-19 in the US
Tom Kenny & Rini Sen | Senior International Economist and Economist, ANZ
Data and insights from ANZ Research show despite increased vaccinations across the US, daily cases of COVID-19 are edging up.
26 Mar 2021
Post-COVID house prices leave 2020 behind
Felicity Emmett & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists, ANZ
Australia’s housing market has had a strong recovery following a modest 2020. But millennial buyers are being left behind.
25 Feb 2021
Stateometer: disparities in economic recovery
Bansi Madhavani, Catherine Birch & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists and Economist, ANZ
Australia’s states and territories continue to rebuild from recession through the final quarter of 2020 but restrictions still pose risks.
19 Feb 2021
A renewed future for Australia in renewables
David Roberts, Tsen Wong & Katherine O’Connor | Head of Project Advisory Corporate Finance, Head of Energy & Director Project and Export Finance, ANZ
The development of the renewable energy industry will create new investment and employment opportunities in Australia.
22 Oct 2020
Here comes the rain again
Daniel Hynes, Soni Kumari & Dhiraj Nim | Senior Commodities Analyst, Commodities Strategist & Economist/FX Strategist, ANZ
An incoming La Niña weather system could have a sizeable impact on supply and demand across a range of commodities.
14 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: expected impact, in charts
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Has the 2020-21 Australian Federal Budget gone far enough to encourage spending in a post-COVID economy?
09 Oct 2020
In charts: being COVID-free isn’t everything
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
New Zealand Chief Economist, Sharon Zollner provides the data on how the land of the long white cloud is making its way to a COVID normal.
07 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: the biggest wins for business
Jenefer Stewart | General Manager Business Banking, ANZ
Policy announcements on skills, regional investment, depreciation and tax changes will help steady an Australian business community which has struggled through the crisis.
06 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: the new era of fiscal leadership
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Speaking on video, the ANZ Chief Economist scores the Federal Budget on three fronts.
06 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: in pictures - 2020 vision
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
See the key announcements for the 2020-2021 Australian Federal Budget in this infographic.
06 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: spend, business, spend
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Australia’s 2020-21 Federal Budget was designed to get the private sector spending again.
06 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: engineering a recovery
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Australian Federal Budget prioritises a private sector recovery, with fiscal conservatism tossed aside.
06 Oct 2020
The new fiscal reality
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
The modern fiscal world is radically different from any before it. What does the mean for the post-COVID recovery?
06 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
bluenotes presents comprehensive coverage of the 2020-21 Australian Federal Budget.
29 Sep 2020
Central Banks get cryptic
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
As global interest rates crater and COVID-19 recessions metastasise, central banks are being forced to re-evaluate their role in currency and money creation.
25 Sep 2020
On the cusp of a second wave
Brian Martin | Senior International Economist, ANZ
Comprehensive, localised restrictions are needed for Europe and the UK to recover quickly from a new wave of COVID-19 cases.
27 Aug 2020
Stateometer: point of contraction
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
The impact of the pandemic drove all of Australia’s states into a sharp contraction in the June quarter.
28 Jul 2020
Female financial literacy, participation needed in crisis
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Women are being disproportionately impacted by COVID-19. It’s time for them to take real control of their finances.
21 Jul 2020
Dial a doctor: pandemic pressures healthcare system
Prof Anthony Scott | Health & Healthcare theme lead, The Melbourne Institute
Australia’s healthcare system may not have been overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases as initially expected but the economic impacts have not gone unnoticed.
15 Jul 2020
Defence future spend accelerates over decade
Cherelle Murphy & Bansi Madhavani | Senior Economist & Economist, ANZ
Australia’s Defence Force will see a dramatic increase in spending over the next decade. And responding to the pandemic is on the to-do list.
06 Jul 2020
What if banks broke the buck?
James Culham | Executive Director, Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
Is MMT the post-COVID normal for monetary policy or an inflation trap?
11 Jun 2020
Abstract climate change ends with pandemic
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
COVID-19 has forced the world to pause and consider what aspects of “normal” need to return once the crisis passes if another existential crisis is to be averted.
05 Jun 2020
Indebted to the future
James Culham | Executive Director, Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
Is government debt a burden for future generations or merely a debt we owe ourselves? Could it even represent net wealth?
21 May 2020
Stateometer: the first shock waves
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
The beginnings of the COVID-19 economic shock became apparent in the states and territories’ trade channels.
18 May 2020
Economic dignity: a way forward
Dr Jeremiah Brown | ANZ Tony Nicholson Research Fellow
All Australians must support the most vulnerable members of society with dignity and respect. It’s in all our interests.
14 May 2020
Pandemic lays housing recovery low
Felicity Emmett & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists, ANZ
Australia’s housing market will be impacted on many fronts because of COVID-19. And the effects will be seen both immediately and longer-term.
08 May 2020
Yield curve control: back to the future
James Culham | Executive Director, Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
Governments and central banks can find much to learn from previous crises in coping with the COVID-19 pandemic.
22 Apr 2020
Dirty money goes digital
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
People are turning to contactless payments to avoid touching cash or payments terminals. This trend might exist in a post-COVID-19 world.
20 Apr 2020
Women at the frontline (and the rear) of COVID-19
Cherelle Murphy & Bansi Madhavani | Senior Economist & Economist, ANZ
Women are being left behind in key decisions for COVID-19 even though they are at the frontline of the economic shock.
13 Mar 2020
Quantifying quantitative easing
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
The impact of COVID-19 suggests the hurdle for quantitative easing in Australia might be cleared sooner than first thought.
06 Mar 2020
Uncertainty in an era of disrupted trade
Khalil Hegarty, Kristen Bondietti & Jon Berry | Directors, ITS Global
The US-China trade war and coronavirus have disrupted trade more than any other events in recent history. Can businesses continue to prosper?
05 Mar 2020
IWD2020: equal economic ecosystems
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
If economic policy is designed with men in mind, no wonder women feel left behind.
04 Mar 2020
A viral tsunami
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
As the world reacts to - and prepares against - a global pandemic, what do we know of the lifecycles of previous disasters?
20 Feb 2020
Stateometer: forecast downgrades worst for south east
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
A deterioration in labour markets has pulled down economies in the December quarter.
14 Feb 2020
NZ agri braces for coronavirus contagion
Susan Kilsby & Sharon Zollner | NZ Agriculture Economist and NZ Chief Economist at ANZ
New Zealand’s agriculture industry is watching the flow-on effects of the coronavirus closely as produce begins to pile-up.
12 Feb 2020
IN CHARTS: Aus housing stability
Felicity Emmett & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists, ANZ
Have the last few months of low interest rates left a lasting impact on Aus housing affordability and stability?
10 Feb 2020
Australian economy suffers virus symptoms
Felicity Emmett & David Plank | Senior Economist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
Growing uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus will have a large impact on near-term GDP growth in Australia.
06 Feb 2020
Coronavirus, green swans and unknown unknowns
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The global economy is still recovering from fragilities of the last decade. Now coronavirus threatens to hit growth anew.
29 Jan 2020
China’s fortune in the Year of the Rat
Raymond Yeung, Betty Wang & Zhaopeng Xing | Chief Economist, Greater China, Senior China Economist, Greater China, and China Markets Economist at ANZ
2020 marks the start of a new zodiac and a new decade. How will China fare in the Year of the Rat?
28 Jan 2020
Capitalism vs Socialism: mismatch or missed match?
James Culham | Executive Director, Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
Is the ongoing debate between capitalism and socialism aiming at the right target?
23 Jan 2020
NZ outlook: 20/20 vision
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
New Zealand’s growth in 2020 is likely to be modest but the economic fates are not entirely in Kiwi hands.
22 Jan 2020
The roads go without saying…
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
What has capitalism done for us? A lot more than socialism…
21 Jan 2020
Commodities in 2020: changing winds
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
Increased focus on environmental issues will have a noticeable impact on commodity markets in 2020.
16 Jan 2020
Mega transport underpins pipeline
Catherine Birch | Senior Economist, ANZ
Will the major projects pipeline be ramped up across New South Wales after a lag in 2020?
15 Jan 2020
Confidence and wellbeing: on different paths
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
As consumer confidence continues to get weaker consumers may become more resilient, according to new data.
13 Jan 2020
Australian bushfires: impacting GDP
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
The size, intensity and duration of the Australian bushfires mean they will almost certainly have a larger economic impact than past fires.
05 Dec 2019
Aus Christmas retail: bah humbug
Adelaide Timbrell & David Plank | Economist & Head of Aus Economics, ANZ
A weak economy and ongoing discounting periods are putting a dampener on the Christmas spirit in retail.
25 Nov 2019
Aus healthcare: in the waiting room
Glen Fisher | Associate Director for Health, ANZ
Australia’s healthcare sector is expanding to meet demand driving investment opportunities in healthcare real estate assets.
20 Nov 2019
Stateometer: on the right track
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
The ANZ Stateometer showed economies turned in many of Australia's states and territories in the September quarter, marking a positive – albeit mild – change.
15 Nov 2019
Monetary policy: reaching the bottom of the barrel
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
As monetary policy’s impact on credit diminishes, secular stagnation is beginning to take hold.
14 Nov 2019
Interest rates: through the looking-glass
James Culham | Executive Director, Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
As interest rates tend towards zero, will central banks be forced to turn to unconventional monetary policies?
04 Nov 2019
Changing the mining mix
Daniel Hynes, Catherine Birch & Jasmine Kaur | Senior Commodities Strategist & Senior Economists, ANZ
Australia’s mining industry has faced momentous changes over the last decade. Will a shift to renewable technologies help drive demand?
28 Oct 2019
Libra in China: what’s in the stars?
Raymond Yeung and team | Chief Economist, Greater China & economics team, ANZ
Facebook’s digital currency holds as founder Mark Zuckerberg faces Congress. However, one party is yet to show its hand.
24 Oct 2019
Aus housing: on the rebound
Felicity Emmett & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists, ANZ
The turn in the housing market has been remarkable with the rebound in prices considerably stronger than expected.
21 Oct 2019
New Zealand: land of the long white, but darkening, cloud
Miles Workman | Senior NZ Economist, ANZ
The outlook for the Kiwi economy is for growth to slow a little further, but remain on course overall.
18 Oct 2019
Non-residential building capex: offices, hotels hold the fort
Catherine Birch | Senior Economist, ANZ
Major project investment in the non-residential building sector is historically high after a surge in 2018-19.
17 Oct 2019
US-China trade: a temporary truce
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
An agreement may be in sight in the long-running US-China trade war. But history warns us of mirages.
10 Oct 2019
Brexit: lambs to the slaughter
Susan Kilsby & Sharon Zollner | NZ Agriculture Economist and NZ Chief Economist at ANZ
New Zealand’s lamb industry is watching closely as the UK tries to herd Brexit.
01 Oct 2019
Public infrastructure investment: choppy waters
Catherine Birch | Senior Economist, ANZ
Capital expenditure from public-backed major projects is expected to fall before the next wave of projects begins.
30 Sep 2019
Corn economics goes pop
James Culham | Executive Director, Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
As the Australian economy ponders the impact of zero - or negative - interest rates, can the answer be found in corn?
09 Sep 2019
Australia’s economy: boom or bust?
Alan Mitchell | Columnist, bluenotes
According to the headlines, Australia’s economy is despairing. But is it all as bad as it seems?
06 Sep 2019
Brexit: deal or no deal for Australia?
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Australia’s ability to trade with the UK in a post-Brexit environment may not be as easy as advertised.
04 Sep 2019
Interest factor zero
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
The idea unprecedented negative interest rates will spur the economy isn’t coming to fruition, so what are they doing?
20 Aug 2019
Stateometer: modest growth continues
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
As the resources states showed mild business sector improvement most other states continued to grow below trend as impacts from housing softness continue.
13 Aug 2019
Global trade: the war clouds darken
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Trade-offs look increasingly unlikely in the Trump-Xi trade war and economic rations are looking bleaker.
17 Jul 2019
Kiwis don’t yield to the curve
Sandeep Parekh | ANZ Foreign Exchange/Rates Strategist
Cause for concern or false alarm? The NZ yield curve frequently inverts - but lacks the recession-predicting ability of its US counterpart.
09 Jul 2019
The hellship Neptune and perverse incentives
Jason Murphy | Publisher, Thomas the Think Engine
Incentivising negative behaviour (or the absence of positive incentives) can lead to disastrous outcomes, says author Jason Murphy.
05 Jul 2019
Credit where due with property confidence
David Plank & Felicity Emmett | Head of Australian Economics & Senior Economist, ANZ
Confidence in the residential property market is beginning to bounce, according to new data.
04 Jul 2019
Fake friends: Trump and Xi
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The relationship between the US and China is still in murky water following the G20 Summit.
02 Jul 2019
Australian healthcare: time for a check-up
Cherelle Murphy & Bansi Madhavani | Senior Economist & Economist, ANZ
Although Australians are living longer, their overall health isn’t so great and that’s weighing down the healthcare industry.
27 Jun 2019
China’s war against aging
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Forget the trade war, China’s must negotiate its demographic challenges to ensure future growth.
04 Jun 2019
Tasmania: the southern state’s heading north
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Tasmanians are enjoying robust economic conditions but housing and employment remain a concern according to ANZ Research.
29 May 2019
Stateometer: one tortoise, many hares
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
It was a case of the tortoise and hares in the latest ANZ Stateometer. The slow and steady South Australia won the race.
27 May 2019
A game of truths in Asia
David Green | CEO Singapore and Head of South East Asia, India & Middle East, ANZ
Don’t believe everything you read, Asia may not be slowing as quickly as first thought.
22 May 2019
What is the China-US endgame?
Raymond Yeung & Betty Wang | Chief Economist Greater China & Senior China Economist, ANZ
Trade conflict between the US and China is inevitable, according to ANZ Research.
16 May 2019
LONGREAD: trade war? Gimme shelter
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The relationship between the US and China is reaching boiling point with outcomes which will impact many other nations, including Australia.
14 May 2019
Household budget pressures: it’s a long way to the shop
Adelaide Timbrell & David Plank | Economist & Head of Aus Economics, ANZ
Australian households are moving their spending away from retail to other goods and services, says ANZ Research.
13 May 2019
Aus housing: green shoots appearing
Adelaide Timbrell & Felicity Emmett | Economist & Senior Economist, ANZ
Are the sharpest declines of the Australian housing market downturn behind us?
08 May 2019
How to understand China’s economy
Zhaopeng Xing & Raymond Yeung | Markets Economist and Chief Economist, Greater China at ANZ
The debate surrounding whether China is over-reporting its GDP is starting to heat up again. Here’s how the numbers work.
24 Apr 2019
VIDEO: it’s a steep learning curve on yield
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Assessments of the US yield curve risk being too dogmatic, says ANZ Chief Economist.
05 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: Labor’s alternative
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
Some were disappointed with the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget, does this simply reflect the focus on tax cuts?
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
bluenotes presents comprehensive coverage of the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget.
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: back to black with an election to come
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
As expected, cuts to personal income taxes and big infrastructure spending dominated the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget.
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: reaching peak budget
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Structural changes occurring in Australia are starting to impact the budget more forcefully, particularly demographic changes.
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: the graphic truth
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
Tax, outlook, health, infrastructure, the key numbers of Federal Budget in pictures.
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: small business perks
Isaac Rankin | Managing Director Commercial and Private Banking, ANZ
Tax write-offs and funding for apprenticeships are some of the promises for SMEs from the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget.
01 Apr 2019
INFOGRAPHIC: recession. Do you know what it really means?
Melissa Currie | Creative Content Producer, bluenotes
Australia’s last recession was a quarter century ago. The economy is very different today but how will it weather the inevitable?
28 Mar 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: tax relief and congestion busting
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Personal income tax cuts and new infrastructure spending set to be announced in the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget.
14 Mar 2019
US-North Korea negotiations: where now?
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Trump and Kim’s latest summit fizzled - is anyone truly surprised? But what does it mean?
08 Mar 2019
IWD2019: the benefits of difference
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Diversity is good for the economy (although diversity in economics is still lacking).
05 Mar 2019
Stateometer: softening momentum spreads through the east coast
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
Softening economic momentum suggests credit tightness is beginning to hit smaller states.
26 Feb 2019
Investors prepare for challenging year
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
Sharemarkets may have rebounded early but the market volatility of 2018 is expected to continue this year.
25 Feb 2019
The economics of elections
David Plank & Bansi Madhavani | Head of Australian Economics & Economist, ANZ
People often think the economy slows as elections get close - the reality is more complicated.
15 Feb 2019
US-China trade: finding the compromise
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
A US-China trade compromise appears to be bumping towards some sort of conclusion.
07 Feb 2019
NZ agri: up at the crack of dawn
Susan Kilsby & Sharon Zollner | NZ Agriculture Economist and NZ Chief Economist at ANZ
New Zealand’s primary agriculture sector is doing well at the moment, according to ANZ Research.
04 Feb 2019
Aus house prices: what else are they telling us?
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
There are deeper implications of the largest fall in Australian house prices since the GFC.
01 Feb 2019
China's service sector - composition, not size, matters
Raymond Yeung & Kanika Bhatnagar | Chief Economist, Greater China & Economist at ANZ
China’s service sector has room to expand but its what’s being served what matters most.
16 Jan 2019
Goat entrails and banks
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
What’s to come in 2019 for the banking and financial services sector?
15 Jan 2019
New year, new outlook
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
2019 is shaping up to be a less stressful year than 2018 for global markets, says ANZ Research.
11 Jan 2019
Viet Nam: a growing Tiger Cub
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
Viet Nam is forecast to be the fastest growing economy among its neighbours over the next five years.
08 Jan 2019
More than robotaxis: the tech revolution and productivity
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
We still don’t have an answer to a fundamental question: what will the tech revolution do to the nature of jobs?
14 Dec 2018
Spreading the gospel of B2R
Peter Thomas | State Director, Property – Business & Private Banking, ANZ
Innovative property models like B2R could change the market – if the word gets out.
29 Oct 2018
Australia's China exposure is overexposed
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Australia is exposed to China but not singularly exposed.
22 Oct 2018
SIBOS2018: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
Read our full coverage of the Sibos 2018 conference in Sydney.
16 Oct 2018
Defining equality: not simple. But necessary
Jo Masters & Bianca Hartge-Hazelman | Senior Economist, ANZ & Founder, Financy Women’s Index
The latest Financy Women’s Index Progress Target sets out clear, achievable goals for economic gender equality.
04 Oct 2018
The knock-on property effect in Singapore
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
Singapore’s move to cool property activity should help hold back growth in calendar 2018.
02 Oct 2018
NZ’s productivity problem
Tony Field | bluenotes contributor
NZ businesses are being urged to invest in innovation to boost their productivity.
05 Sep 2018
Is it too quiet in emerging Asia?
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
The search is on for the appropriate trade-off between growth and stability in Asia.
23 Aug 2018
Stateometer: cooling down
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
The economy’s momentum slowed into Autumn and Winter this quarter, data shows.
15 Aug 2018
India & Australia: room to grow
Shashank Mendiratta & Khoon Goh | Economist & Head of Asia Research, ANZ
More needs to be done to boost investment flows and take advantage of the potential of the Australia–India trade relationship.
06 Aug 2018
Another winter of discontent in NZ?
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
Will falling business confidence derail near-term GDP growth? It depends...
03 Aug 2018
Own goals & the truth about China’s slowdown
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Is China facing a cyclical or structural slowdown? Here’s what the charts suggest.
02 Aug 2018
Round we go in the circular economy
Stan Krpan | CEO, Sustainability Victoria
Australia’s current economic system is predominantly linear – not ideal. But there are ways we can bring it around.
25 Jul 2018
Lessons from a two-speed property market
David Oudshoorn | State Director, Property – Business & Private Banking, ANZ
The split between expectations for residential and commercial property continues.
20 Jul 2018
Shake off any rate cut ideas in NZ
Philip Borkin | Senior Economist, ANZ
NZ’s latest CPI suggests no rate cuts are around the corner – and so does the Taylor Rule.
03 Jul 2018
The upside of Trump’s trade trials - yes, upside
Alan Mitchell | Columnist, bluenotes
Keep calm as Trump carries on: current uncertainty is a good reminder of the importance of supporting free trade.
29 Jun 2018
Listen up: what the yield curve has to say
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The state of the yield curve is beginning to dominate conversations about the market. Here’s what it means.
28 Jun 2018
Let’s not waste time on the why
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
As the spotlight falls on the US yield curve, ANZ Research looks at what this means for credit risk.
22 Jun 2018
Building a fix for Australia’s rental market
Ben Hurley | Freelance journalist
Build-to-rent accommodation could help market incentives in the rental industry.
20 Jun 2018
Growing pains in the health sector
Richard Grayson | Head of Health, Business and Private Banking, ANZ
The outlook is good for medical specialists but median hourly earnings are increasing slower than the benchmark.
12 Jun 2018
Is China the only light at the end of the tunnel?
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
With global growth at its peak, China’s liquidity policy looms as an increasingly important factor for the world.
01 Jun 2018
New world order: is China all consuming?
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The China challenge is becoming more complex. It's a challenge suffusing Australia’s latest foreign policy white paper.
31 May 2018
NZ’s super super problem
Miles Workman & Sharon Zollner | Economist & Chief Economist, ANZ NZ
Are we all just choosing to turn a blind eye on NZ’s unsustainable superannuation system?
23 May 2018
Japan: a rising or waning sun?
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Growth in Japan has dried up. Is this the end of Abenomics?
23 May 2018
Stateometer: housing drags on key state
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
Growth in NSW decelerates and population stats point to house prices; Vic, SA and Qld accelerate.
22 May 2018
Is the trade war really over?
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
The China-US armistice is good news but the crux of the matter has yet to be addressed.
17 May 2018
NZ Budget18: no surprises
Miles Workman & Sharon Zollner | Economist & Chief Economist, ANZ NZ
Prudent pragmatism is the order of the day in New Zealand.
14 May 2018
BUDGET 2018: here’s to our health
Richard Grayson | Head of Health, Business and Private Banking, ANZ
Australia’s federal government has unveiled a suite of budget measures which should help ease the transition to an ageing population.
10 May 2018
The ten biggest Twitter themes of #Budget18
Shane White | Content Manager, Institutional, ANZ
We share a brief look at the biggest themes on Twitter from #Budget2018.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018, in pictures
Joanne Masters | Former Senior Economist, ANZ
We’ve broken down the budget into an easily digestible visual format.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018: five key takeaways for SMEs
Guy Mendelson | Portfolio Lead - Business Owners, ANZ
More support, opportunities and relief highlight the benefits for Australian small-business owners from the 2018 budget.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018, in tweets
Shane White | Content Manager, Institutional, ANZ
See what some of Australia’s most-respected commentators said on Twitter in the aftermath of #Budget2018.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018: does no harm
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Australia’s better-than-expected tax revenues haven’t failed to disappoint, ANZ’s Chief Economist says on video.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018: wealthy, healthy & prizes
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
This year’s budget has some for the household wallet, some for health and some for the government’s piggy bank.
08 May 2018
Australian budget 2018: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
bluenotes presents comprehensive coverage of the 2018-19 Australian federal budget.
08 May 2018
NZ’s moo-t point on the environment
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
New Zealand faces many challenges to ensure they reach their emissions targets by 2050.
02 May 2018
Has Asia missed a growth trick?
Sanjay Mathur | Chief Economist Southeast Asia & India, ANZ
Could soft manufacturing data out of Asia herald something more significant?
30 Apr 2018
Budget 2018: lattes, fares and flexibility
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Expect a smaller underlying cash deficit for 2017-18 than previously projected.
20 Apr 2018
For China, devaluation is a bad idea
Raymond Yeung & Khoon Goh | Chief Economist Greater China & Head of Asia Research at ANZ
It’s not in China’s best interests to devalue the yuan as it would go against two key priorities of its own government.
23 Mar 2018
China poised for measured responses to US
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Expect retaliation from China in the event the US’ planned tariff positions go into effect.
22 Mar 2018
PODCAST: bricks and mortar have a future in retail – just smaller
Jo Masters | Senior Economist, ANZ
Growing overheads related to physical stores becoming a bigger issue for retail, retailer group boss says.
19 Mar 2018
Tariffs: for better or worse - usually worse
Alan Mitchell | Columnist, bluenotes
Donald Trump believes his tariffs will be good for the American economy but history shows otherwise.
19 Mar 2018
New world order: Turnbull - Trump’s man of steel
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
A weakening of the WTO’s authority has the potential to upset a delicate global trading balance amid a mercantilist China’s rise.
13 Mar 2018
LONGREAD: good vibes and a fresh focus at ASEAN
Greg Earl | Writer, editor and consultant
Australia is looking to shed its quarry or farm-based image at ASEAN as it prepares for a very different future.
09 Mar 2018
LONGREAD: can ASEAN’s opportunity equal China?
Anna Green | CEO Philippines, ANZ
The ASEAN opportunity provides learnings from the China experience for Australian businesses.
28 Feb 2018
NZ productivity: not too shabby (but improvement needed)
Philip Borkin | Senior Economist, ANZ
Sure, the figures looked bad but the latest productivity snapshot for New Zealand is a little more promising. More please.
23 Feb 2018
Event economics: faster, higher, stronger…
Jason Murphy | Publisher, Thomas the Think Engine
The Winter Games are wrapping up in Pyeongchang but the economic impact – whichever way it goes – will last for some time.
21 Feb 2018
Stateometer: national strength
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Differences faded across Australia’s states and territories in December quarter, reading shows.
08 Feb 2018
Good times fade away on markets
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
Crashes aside, don’t expect a repeat of the double-digit market returns of 2017.
18 Jan 2018
Is this as good as it gets for the economy?
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Let’s welcome the global recovery and take advantage of it - but the chances of further improvement are minor.
04 Dec 2017
Australia’s future in the unmeasurable economy
Alan Mitchell | Columnist, bluenotes
Labour productivity is in the doldrums and an uncomfortable future is lapping at our feet.
14 Nov 2017
Megatrends: the next 10 years vs last 50, Pt 2
Damien Klassen | Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth
The long-term trends which carried markets over the last 50 years are ending.
02 Nov 2017
RBA should hold the line on rates
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Inflation may give the RBA the cover it needs to hike next year.
25 Oct 2017
FTAs: myth posing as policy
Bill Carmichael, Alan Mitchell et al | Former chairman, Industries Assistance Commission & Former Economics Editor, AFR
The clarity of what is at issue in trade policy has been translated into the language of trade diplomacy.
23 Oct 2017
Megatrends: the next 10 years vs last 50, Pt 1
Damien Klassen | Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth
A look at the relentless demographic and structural undercurrents which will drive markets in the future.
20 Oct 2017
Navigating the gig economy
Dr Wesley McClendon | Global HR executive, thought leader and executive director, McClendon Research Group, Inc (MRG)
The war for talent isn’t over- the talented have just left the building.
10 Oct 2017
Why GDP and welfare are parting company
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Something is up with wage growth around the world – and that something could be technology.
25 Sep 2017
Political press releases: More than just words
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
New Zealand – not unexpectedly – has a hung parliament after the weekend election. What can the parties’ own words tells about how a coalition may form?
21 Sep 2017
Playing the long game on China
Alan Mitchell | Columnist, bluenotes
China is a long-term project for Australian investment but acting now to strengthen investment policy is paramount.
19 Sep 2017
The outlook for soft commodities
Mark Bennett | Head of Aus Agribusiness, ANZ
Spring is here and all eyes turn to forecasts for wheat, beef, dairy and more.
19 Sep 2017
Bitter butter battle brewing in NZ?
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
High European prices due to falling product and low inventories are affecting the domestic market.
18 Sep 2017
Energy security needs national leadership
Mark Stone | Chief Executive at the Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Rising power costs are felt by everyone – but the impact they have on small businesses can be devastating.
18 Sep 2017
Growth backers: financing Asia’s rapid expansion
Carl Roberts | Head of ANZ Loan Syndications for South & Southeast Asia.
An infrastructure investment gap is opening up in Asia challenges regarding the availability and pricing of capital are increasing.
14 Sep 2017
Are the bulls finally running out of energy?
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
It’s been 10 years since the GFC and the strength in markets endures. But for how long?
12 Sep 2017
Singapore: New Zealand’s open gateway to ASEAN
David Green | CEO Singapore and Head of South East Asia, India & Middle East, ANZ
New Zealand and Singapore have strong economic ties – but their joint ties to the region are vastly greater.
12 Sep 2017
Is Tasmania fit for purpose?
Chris Sparks | Regional Executive, Regional Business Banking Tasmania, ANZ
Ongoing investment required to stabilise and improve Australia’s healthcare system.
08 Sep 2017
Trump and an ill-defined world
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
For many, the American president espouses views at best unformed – but the system has checks.
04 Sep 2017
NZ votes: party leaders outline their vision to bluenotes
Julia de Blaauw | BlueNotes contributing editor
We speak to the leaders of the major NZ parties ahead of the upcoming vote.
23 Aug 2017
Stateometer: keep on humming
Cherelle Murphy & Thomas Hounslow | Senior economist, ANZ & bluenotes data editor
Australia’s fortunes improve as housing construction keeps economies humming while labour markets and trade improve nationwide.
16 Aug 2017
INTERACTIVE: Asia? Not yet
Thomas Hounslow | bluenotes contributor
Study finds biggest Australian companies are not yet properly equipped to succeed in Asia.
14 Aug 2017
RBNZ: when in doubt, do nowt
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
The NZ Reserve Bank’s current estimate of the output gap is about zero – buts its range is pretty wide.
14 Aug 2017
Trump the great trade disrupter
Tim Harcourt | Author, The Airport Economist
Australian exporters have serious concerns about the disruptive trade policies from the US.
11 Aug 2017
From the clouds: Viet Nam’s aviation boom
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
The Vietnamese aviation sector is unrecognisable from 10 years ago and growth is only getting started.
10 Aug 2017
Wages, tech and the other half of the chessboard
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
We need to face the possibility tech has changed the fundamentals of growth.
09 Aug 2017
PODCAST: RBA’s Bullock on cash, payments & policy
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
RBA assistant governor chats to bluenotes about the bank’s latest survey and its implication for the payments sector.
07 Aug 2017
Australian manufacturing: room to grow
Phil Crouch | State Head Victoria and Tasmania, Regional Business Banking at ANZ
Industry must remain focused on export opportunities, high-quality products and international competitiveness.
03 Aug 2017
Is China’s rise shadowing ASEAN cheer?
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
New world order: policymakers at the ASEAN meet in Manila should pay close attention to China’s words and actions.
01 Aug 2017
The surprising truth about spending patterns
Jo Masters | Senior Economist, ANZ
Retailers are doing it tough but consumption in Australia is not what it seems.
01 Aug 2017
Japan: emerging from the lost decades?
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
Evidence suggests pervasive deflation has ended in Japan and the country is moving into a new normal.
01 Aug 2017
Tax and what Australia can learn from Ireland
John Ryan | Senior Consultant, AIC
Many Australians have an Irish background but there could also be lessons from the Emerald Isle for the Australian economy.
19 Jul 2017
NZ to stay on song
Cameron Bagrie | Chief Economist, New Zealand ANZ
Economic momentum in NZ is picking up but expect it to stay modest amid capacity restraints.
18 Jul 2017
The danger of jumping the recovery gun
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Growth is somewhat above trend in many economies, but where is the pricing power?
18 Jul 2017
China signals strong hand at NFWC
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Asian giant plans to intensify financial oversight; looks to curb debt control on SoEs.
14 Jul 2017
Paradise, the Samoan way
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
bluenotes speaks to Samoan PM Susuga Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi about the country’s future.
06 Jul 2017
Lessons learned from Asian crisis still at play
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
Twenty years on from the Asian Financial Crisis the saga still leaves scars.
04 Jul 2017
Exciting times for currencies ahead
Daniel Been | Head of FX strategy at ANZ
For currencies, there’s a steamroller coming – in the shape of liquidity.
04 Jul 2017
New world order: days of crises past
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
In an environment unusually fraught for all sorts of reasons the G20 is under unique scrutiny.
27 Jun 2017
Japan & the rise of the machines
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
In Japan, it’s unclear how the labour market’s path to productivity will play out.
26 Jun 2017
Five reasons a demographic time bomb is not looming
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
You can’t predict the future reading demographics alone, in a new report ANZ Research look into whether the ageing global population is sign of an alarming old age dependency ratio.
26 Jun 2017
Finkel: from recommendation to reality?
Sharon Simon | Head of R&A, Utilities & Infrastructure, ANZ
The Finkel Review highlights the need for clarity and certainty in Australia’s electricity market.
23 Jun 2017
Public sector announcement: we’re growing
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Underlying public demand is offsetting some of the weakness from Australia’s slowing mining investment.
22 Jun 2017
Positive signs for China’s onshore financial market
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
Positive signs for China’s onshore financial market should incentivise Chinese regulators to further improve its regulatory transparency and oversight.
13 Jun 2017
Making hay while China shines: FDI in Australia
Mark Whelan | Group Executive Institutional, ANZ
Chinese investment in Australia is not an opportunity which can be taken for granted.
31 May 2017
China’s not the worry – but Australia is
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Don’t get fixated on China. Australia’s issues are more home grown.
29 May 2017
Belt & Road, US & certainty key for RMB
Daniel Everett | Global Head RMB Strategy & Execution, ANZ
We run through the key themes to emerge from the RMB Global Cities Dialogue event.
24 May 2017
The grass is greener across the ditch
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
In Australia pessimism about the outlook prevails. It’s a different story in NZ. Why?
19 May 2017
Moving on from China in Latin America
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
Like Australia, South America is trying to deal with China's economic slowdown – and it’s an Australian opportunity.
11 May 2017
Budget2017: certainty for SMEs
Gabrielle Mitchell | bluenotes contributor
Kate Gibson speaks on video about the impact of the federal budget on small businesses.
10 May 2017
Budget2017: carrots, sticks and steel
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
The Australian Commonwealth Budget maintains a projected return to surplus in 2020-21. This infographic spells out the details.
10 May 2017
VIDEO: the key to Budget2017
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
The Australian Government has attempted an ambitious budget tonight and should be welcomed.
10 May 2017
Budget2017: growth ambition
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
The federal budget tries to balance spending with a creative search for revenue.
10 May 2017
Australian Commonwealth Budget 2017-18
bluenotes contributors |
Australia's Commonwealth Budget has been unveiled, with a focus on security, fairness and opportunity.
04 May 2017
China’s services transformation
Raymond Yeung, Kaushik Baidya & Kanika Bhatnagar | Chief Economist, Greater China, Economist & Junior economist at ANZ
China’s transformation into a services-led economy continues. In the first quarter of 2017 China reported stronger-than-expected headline gross domestic product data of 6.9 per cent.
03 May 2017
The not-so-simple housing story
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
In her excellent and challenging book Happiness for All, Carol Graham uses the analogy of being stuck in traffic, with the lane next to you moving and yours not.
03 May 2017
Building a better future for Aus manufacturing
Christine Linden | General Manager, Regional Business Banking, ANZ Australia
Australia’s modern manufacturing sector carries with it an international reputation for quality and innovation.
02 May 2017
Aus budget 2017: what to expect
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
May’s Australian federal budget is being cast as one which will boost infrastructure spending and address ‘fairness’ including through housing affordability and university fee arrangements.
26 Apr 2017
Vanuatu’s rocky road to prosperity
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
From one of Port Vila’s ritziest streets, the address of consulates, local rich-listers and senior multi-national executives, the views out over the stunning blue Erakor Lagoon are spectacular. But the road to get to these residences is spectacular for all the wrong reasons: its potholes are so huge, ubiquitous and unavoidable anything less than a 4WD would be foolhardy.
24 Apr 2017
LONGREAD: overview of the Japanese pension fund market
Brett Cooper | Senior Trade Commissioner, Austrade
For more than half a century Japan has maintained a reputation as one of the world’s leading exporters of the highest quality manufactured products. But it also maintains a strong competitive advantage in another sector: capital.
21 Apr 2017
UNDERBELLY
Rod Clement | Walkley Award-winning cartoonist
Award-winning Illustrator Rod Clement shares his uniquely quirky take on the corporate world. This week: the many options of the central banker
18 Apr 2017
China’s grey market challenge
Warwick Smith | Chairman, Australia China Council & director, ANZ China
China is not alone in Asia in facing the challenges of an ageing society. Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand face similar issues. Indeed some of these countries are ageing faster.
13 Apr 2017
Under the waterline between China and Japan
Mark Skulley & Jim Skulley | Freelance journalist & Honours student in international relations at La Trobe University
One of Japan's foremost China watchers, Seiichiro Takagi, tries to look over the horizon when it comes to the South China Sea.
12 Apr 2017
It’s not all about millennials: consumers are ageing
Gina Westbrook | Director Strategy Briefings, Euromonitor
There’s never been a better time to be old – or to take advantage of the growing mature-consumer market. Life expectancy is rising around the world, having a major effect on consumer behaviour and the way business approach the market.
07 Apr 2017
PODCAST: Cross-border insolvency, a complicated beast
Leon Gettler | Veteran and highly regarded management journalist
Insolvency laws are different in every country and a lot of Asian businesses use offshore structures. Over the last decade, there have been moves to address growing complexity with a number of Asian countries updating their insolvency laws.
07 Apr 2017
Rising infrastructure to pick up mining’s slack
Daniel Gradwell & David Plank | Economist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
The decline in Australia’s mining-related investment has been well documented in recent years. There are still declines to come, but there’s good news: the drag on the economy from mining is steadily easing and other sectors are picking up the slack.
06 Apr 2017
Is China’s impossible miracle possible?
Jason Qi | Director in Client Insights and Solutions at ANZ
According to the old wisdom, 2017, the Year of the Rooster on the Chinese horoscope, suggests we can expect to see miracles emerge from seemingly impossible situations.
03 Apr 2017
How India is bouncing (cash)back
Sanjeev Bajaj | CEO ANZ India
Demonetisation has been the buzzword of India since the bulk of the country’s cash was removed from the economy at short notice. For many it was a shock to the system, with their economic lives grinding to a halt as the cash shortage disrupted their ability to pay, and also be paid.
03 Apr 2017
Challenges for Chinese tourism growth should prove temporary in NZ
Philip Borkin & Sharon Zollner | Senior economist & Associate Director, ANZ NZ
New Zealand tourism is on a tear with no sign of slowing, driven by ever-higher numbers of Chinese tourists, right? Actually, not quite.
03 Apr 2017
Oil price forecasts up in the air
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
To hedge oil or not to hedge oil is the big question. Rising volatility accentuated by uncertainty on whether there will be an oversupply or shortage of oil is causing many a dilemma to companies for whom oil is a significant input cost.
31 Mar 2017
NZ: maturing like a fine wine
Cameron Bagrie & NZ Research team | Economists, ANZ
New Zealand has reached a mature stage in the economic cycle. Historically, sharp slowdowns have followed such periods - but ANZ research does not believe the cycle is about to roll over and expire.
30 Mar 2017
VIDEO: three big themes for capital markets in 2017
Darren Thomson | bluenotes contributor
A demand for increased duration, diversification and the rise of Asian liquidity are the biggest factors facing Australia’s capital markets sector as we head into the middle of 2017, according to the co-heads of capital markets at ANZ.
29 Mar 2017
Inflation, not employment, now guides RBA on rates
David Plank & Giulia Lavinia Specchia | Head of Australian Economics & Economist, ANZ
A demand for increased duration, diversification and the rise of Asian liquidity are the biggest factors facing Australia’s capital markets sector as we head into the middle of 2017, according to the co-heads of capital markets at ANZ.
28 Mar 2017
Regional Aus: ready for the Asian trade horizon
Christine Linden | General Manager, Regional Business Banking, ANZ Australia
Agriculture has long been a cornerstone of Australia’s economy. As the sector again surges - or “saves our economic bacon” - after 28 per cent growth in 2016 and high expectations for 2017, we’re again reminded of its key place in our economic mix.
27 Mar 2017
Taxing times for Australia, Indonesia and the world
Mark Lawson | Retired senior journalist
The challenge of companies and individuals shuffling income and assets between jurisdictions - a major issue in the ASEAN region - has come to the fore in both Australia and Indonesia.
23 Mar 2017
A tour of Tasmania’s future
Chris Sparks | Regional Executive, Regional Business Banking Tasmania, ANZ
With all the excitement accompanying Hobart’s unveiling of MONA back in 2012, not even the most optimistic among us could’ve foreseen how transformational a privately owned modern art museum would be for the tourism fortunes of the capital or for Tasmania as a whole.
21 Mar 2017
ON THE COUCH: Singapore senior minister Goh on our crises of uncertainty
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Goh Chok Tong has had a long, distinguished career in politics and public policy in Asia, including a crucial period as the Prime Minister of Singapore, succeeding founding PM Lee Kuan Yew. Now, as the global trading landscape faces its biggest shakeup in decades, what does he expect will happen next?
20 Mar 2017
Economics: too dismal for women?
Luci Ellis | Assistant Governor (Economic), RBA
Unfortunately both in general and for female students, economics is not exactly popular in Australia.
16 Mar 2017
Thailand’s new economy: poised for take-off but is the runway ready?
Greg Earl | Writer, editor and consultant
The sign at the entrance to Thailand’s U-Tapao airport declares grandly (and perhaps even more hopefully): One Airport, Two Missions.
16 Mar 2017
Fed hike yesterday’s news, now for tomorrow
Tom Kenny | Senior International Economist, ANZ
The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates as expected but all eyes are on the future as a slightly disappointed market reflects on what happens next.
14 Mar 2017
Does the future of trade look like RCEP?
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
Since the Trans-Pacific Partnership's demise was first promised by US President Donald Trump in 2016, policymakers and businesses across the Asia-Pacific have been looking more seriously to the China-led Regional Cooperative Economic Partnership - especially given China’s refusal to join a rejigged US-free TPP.
14 Mar 2017
Trade machinations in Chile
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The world’s 45th largest economy, Chile is hardly the epicenter of the world trading system. But this week the South American country hosts an event which may prove to be of unusual significance for the global trading system, and for the countries of the Indo-Pacific in particular, including Australia.
07 Mar 2017
China confirms structural reforms, growth target
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China has outlined plans to strengthen its structural reforms efforts, including capacity reduction, property destocking and deleveraging, as well as confirming expectations of a slight downgrade to growth and money supply targets.
02 Mar 2017
Market outlook 2017: better but not great
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The post-financial crisis environment has been described by a number of start-stop recoveries – signs of recovery emerge, markets respond, but then something short-circuits the improvement. In our view, however, there is little on the economic horizon to short-circuit the current recovery.
27 Feb 2017
Stopping the bubble: what to watch at China’s NPC
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
The Chinese government is likely to embrace an attitude of risk-management across many of its policies in 2017. This approach will come into sharp focus at China's National People’s Congress in March.
23 Feb 2017
Five key market themes to look out for in 2017
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The headwinds of 2016 are behind us. As we look ahead, financial conditions and monetary policy all look supportive of growth but global political upheaval, trade uncertainty and a US economy already long in the tooth remain concerns.
21 Feb 2017
Losing AAA – what would it mean for bank interest rates?
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
No government wants the ignominy of a credit rating downgrade but for Australia, which sits at the top of the pile with a AAA rating from the major credit rating agencies, the pain for the government of the day would be acute.
16 Feb 2017
No, China will not save iron ore
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
Positive sentiment has crept back into iron ore markets amid weaker-than-expected export data from Australia and expectations of Chinese restocking. Our advice is not to get too excited - we still believe China will destock in the post-Lunar New Year period as proposed steel capacity cuts are delayed.
14 Feb 2017
Confronting China’s policy trilemma
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
The fall in China’s forex reserves below the $US3 trillion mark in January – its lowest level in six years - in itself is not an issue for the Asian giant. China still has adequate levels of reserves.
14 Feb 2017
Changing streams on the Mekong River
Luke Hunt | Journalist & Asian correspondent
The use of the Mekong River is changing rapidly. Aquaculture and fish farming are now among the high growth industries, offering employment and better standards of living, but at the expense of traditional fishermen who have plied these waters for centuries.
09 Feb 2017
Australia’s awkward post-TPP choice
Greg Earl | Ex-Japan Correspondent & Pacific Editor, AFR & Former Member of the Australia Japan Foundation board
Donald Trump’s abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal has left his Australian allies with an awkward choice.
06 Feb 2017
Is AAA a curse for the Australian economy?
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
The future of Australia’s AAA credit rating might be giving Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his government a few sleepless nights but there is an argument which says losing the grade may be just what Australia needs to move out of its economic humdrum.
03 Feb 2017
Trade is dead; long live trade
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
The United States has made its decision and as a result, it looks like the end of the road for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
31 Jan 2017
Asia game has changed but ANZ still a player: Elliott
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
ANZ remains committed to the Asian region, CEO Shayne Elliott says, but changes to the economic and regulatory environment means the bank has had to adjust its strategy – not abandon it.
30 Jan 2017
Asia still key to global economic growth
Mark Whelan | Group Executive Institutional, ANZ
Global trade is vital to global economic growth and ultimately vital for Australian jobs. Therefore it’s heartening to hear the region’s leaders remain vocal in their support of a transparent and open trading system – despite US President Donald Trump’s rejection of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).
24 Jan 2017
The regional Japan growth paradox
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Speaking to the Australia and New Zealand Chamber of Commerce in Japan last week, ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott quipped it was rare to speak at a multinational event where all the audience understood a rugby reference.
24 Jan 2017
What the end of the TPP means (for Australia and the world)
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
If Australian policymakers had any doubt a Donald Trump presidency in the US would represent a disruption to business-as-usual in the White House that will have been dispelled by one of his first executive acts.
23 Jan 2017
One belt, one road and one massive China opportunity
Richard Holdcroft | Freelance journalist
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, sometimes referred to as the 21st-century Marshall Plan, is far grander in its scope and ambition than the post-World War II US aid initiative.
13 Jan 2017
NZ Truckometer touches brakes; may indicate lane change for economy
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
The latest New Zealand Truckometer suggests current growth momentum in the country is very strong but the pace may be set to slow over the next six months.
13 Jan 2017
Globalisation in the rear-view mirror in 2017
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
To understand the logic of US President-elect Donald Trump’s sharp breaks with Republican orthodoxy—threats of tariffs on US companies moving jobs abroad, treating the decades-long One China policy as a bargaining chip—you need to remember how technology enabled a very specific passion for the past to become kingmaker in US politics.
20 Dec 2016
Who matters more to Australia, the US or China?
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
The US is Australia’s top investor, not China. What impact will that have on the Australian economy in January when Donald Trump becomes President? BlueNotes looks at US investment in Australia and how this fits into the Asian Century.
16 Dec 2016
Outlook: economies, currencies and commodities in 2017
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
A recent drop into negative growth in Australia will not be enough to keep the economy from growing above trend in 2017, while growth in the Asia Pacific regions will be limited by developments in the US and China.
16 Dec 2016
Maserati, lobster and a window into China
Simone Stella | bluenotes contributor
What do a Maserati and a lobster have in common? They’re often red? Luxurious? Pricey?
12 Dec 2016
Fiji: the Pacific hub in the Asia Pacific
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
Nowadays, the concept of the ‘Asia-Pacific’ is on the lips of everybody in officialdom.
06 Dec 2016
Trump’s age of uncertainty
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Donald Trump did not take long to unsettle relations with China and raise questions about a Trump administration’s commitment to a ‘one-China’ policy, a cornerstone of American diplomacy since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger.
30 Nov 2016
A visit to China: beyond excess credit
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Escalating RMB volatility, mismanaged equity market reforms causing gyrations in local and global asset prices - 2016 began with Chinese governance squarely in the spotlight.
28 Nov 2016
China won’t wait for Trump
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Donald Trump has repeated his pledge to abandon America’s commitment to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement on “day one’’ of his presidency.
25 Nov 2016
India: it’s time to look west
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
We often hear India is a country of great potential. But what is really being said is India has the resources, people and raw materials for success – if only it could get its act together. Finally that appears to be happening.
22 Nov 2016
Darwin and the saltwater people
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Darwin’s strategic location as a trading port is no secret to the Larrakia people, the original custodians of the land and waters around the Northern Territory capital.
21 Nov 2016
The emerging Trump world order
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The Chinese word for crisis embraces the characters signifying danger and opportunity. Any reasonable consideration of a Donald Trump presidency must anticipate a period of considerable uncertainty well into 2017.
18 Nov 2016
NZ, Aus part ways on employment
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
If you’re waiting for net migration in New Zealand to fall sharply you may be waiting a while.
15 Nov 2016
LONGREAD: the Rising Sun rising again in Australia
Greg Earl | Ex-Japan Correspondent & Pacific Editor, AFR & Former Member of the Australia Japan Foundation board
Shigetoshi Nagasawa thought he was nearing the end of a faltering 10-year experiment in making Japan’s favourite comfort food in Australia when he took an accidental stroll around a supermarket.
15 Nov 2016
Collateral damage: the emerging market growth story under threat
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
The Donald Trump presidency remains an unknown quantity. As Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Guy Debelle told a conference last week, the only certainty is uncertainty and if you’re going to write volatility insurance charge a high price for it.
11 Nov 2016
You can’t predict the weather – or politics
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Brexit. An independent dependent Australian senate. Trump. The predictions were all wrong. Why? There is much discussion of growing inequality but an underlying force is social media. By giving voice to those previously without one, social media may have forced fundamental change.
09 Nov 2016
yetsenga-trump-triumph-no-brexit
Phoebe O'Sullivan | BlueNotes contributing editor
Despite a global market slump following Donald Trump’s triumph in the US presidential race, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says this will not necessarily be the negative event many are expecting even though it reigned in the prospects of the Fed raising rates in December.
08 Nov 2016
Aussie businesses set to gain $138 billion if they take up Asia opportunity
Fred Ohlsson | Group Executive, ANZ Australia
In 1900, Australia exported goods valued at £40 million to our primary trading partner the United Kingdom. The total trade with the UK was more than five times the total trade with Australia's second-largest trading partner, the USA – a strong reflection of Australia’s close historical association with the British Empire.
08 Nov 2016
How far we’ve come: 30 years of change in NZ
Sophie Speer | BlueNotes contributing editor
In just three decades, the economic landscape in New Zealand has changed irrevocably. This infographic spells out the biggest shifts.
04 Nov 2016
The Mekong: who’s training who? And who’s supplying who?
Eugenia Victorino & Weiwen Ng | Economists, ANZ
In the Mekong there’s a pronounced disparity between the size and relative development stage of each of the region’s economies - apparent to anyone who has spent time doing business there.
30 Oct 2016
One child, two children - what will it mean for China (and cows)
Li-Gang Liu | Former Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China's decision to relax its one child policy will inevitably have an impact on China's population and GDP growth. According to ANZ analysis, China will become the largest economy and the second largest consumer market in 2020.
30 Oct 2016
ANZ refocuses Asia operations; sells retail, wealth arms; concentration on institutional
Paul Edwards | Manager Operations Strategy, ANZ
ANZ will concentrate its resources on institutional banking in Asia with the sale of a portfolio of retail and wealth management assets to Singapore-based DBS.
30 Oct 2016
Asia retail, wealth sale positive for institutional business: Whelan
Paul Edwards | Manager Operations Strategy, ANZ
The sale of five wealth and retail business by ANZ in Asia will allow greater focus on the institutional business in the region, according to ANZ’s head of institutional banking Mark Whelan.
28 Oct 2016
India’s daunting scope for growth
Jonty Ephron | Chief Risk Officer India, ANZ
India’s importance as an emerging market has been well known for almost two decades: it was one of the original BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India, China - economies championed by Goldman Sachs in the early 2000s.
25 Oct 2016
The uncharted Mekong is ripe for picking
Anna Green | CEO Philippines, ANZ
With global trade growth slowing and global economic growth floundering in 2016, smart business continues to look for opportunities to grow in regions bucking this negative trend. The Greater Mekong Subregion (consisting of Southern China, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia) presents such an opportunity.
21 Oct 2016
Australia in Japan: a tale of two teams
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
Observing the story of Australian business in Japan in recent times is a little like watching two different Australian sports teams.
12 Oct 2016
ASEAN trade path clear: ministers
Anna Green | CEO Philippines, ANZ
As the world gathered in Laos in September for the ASEAN business summit, an increased interest in developing stronger, more tangible relationships with ASEAN bloc countries among senior global leaders became clear.
11 Oct 2016
LONGREAD: the second wave of Japanese investment in Australia
Ian Williams | Partner, Herbert Smith Freehills
Australia and Japan share an enduring history of business collaboration that has created significant value for both economies.
10 Oct 2016
China’s credit risk problem
Kieran Davies | Former Economist, ANZ
As China’s economy transitions towards a focus on consumption, credit risk remains a problem – and one that is only getting bigger.
07 Oct 2016
LONGREAD: the Asian super cycle is here
Graham White | Author
For nervous investors or for those seeking work or welfare in the stumbling economies of the West, it may come as a surprise to learn we are living through a golden age of economic advancement.
07 Oct 2016
The long, long – long – commute
Chris Kelly | Award winning artist
We spend a lot of time on the way to work – by foot, by public transport or stuck in traffic. But exactly how much time?
05 Oct 2016
The next recession is inevitable
Rob Molyneux | Group General Manager Risk Metrics & Infrastructure, ANZ
Glenn Stevens retired from the Reserve bank of Australia in September, warning the country risks lulling itself into a false sense of security by constantly retelling the “25-years-without-a-recession” narrative.
05 Oct 2016
The four key consumer trends for 2017
Lisa Holmes | Senior Survey Analyst, Euromonitor International
In 2017 the most successful business will be the ones which capitalise on developing consumer trends.
04 Oct 2016
Japan’s workplace culture is at a crossroads
Elizabeth Masamune | Managing Director of @Asia Associates Japan
In a society where being part of a group has traditionally mattered above all else, Japanese people are coming to demand more choices about the way they live their lives. The needs of the individual and the pursuit of personal happiness have come to matter more.
04 Oct 2016
Hong Kong vs Singapore: which is the best regional centre?
Emma Davine & Kunal Dey | Head of Client Solutions Transaction Banking & Head of Global Subsideries, ANZ
Many multinational corporations look to set up their regional treasuries – the nerve centre of where they manage their finances – in one of Asia’s financial centres. But which one best suits the needs of business?
21 Sep 2016
LONGREAD: Is Japan a boiling frog?
Dr David Morgan | Managing Director, JC Flowers & co
Doubtless the anecdote of the boiling frog is familiar: if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive danger and will be cooked to death.
19 Sep 2016
LONGREAD: silver linings over the Swan
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
Western Australia has been hit with a sharp economic downturn as the Australian economy adjusts to the transition away from the mining boom. The top-ranked state economy in Australia just two years ago, WA now sits at number seven, above only struggling Tasmania.
15 Sep 2016
Four economic postcards from the US
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
In the middle of the most volatile presidential election in a generation, the global gaze on the United States of America has rarely been so intense. Inevitably, this will affect the economy but what is going on behind the headlines and controversy?
14 Sep 2016
How the rising sun shines on the long white cloud
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
For at least the last five years, the discussion around foreign investment in New Zealand has focused on China. It’s not surprising given over that period Chinese (including Hong Kong SAR) direct investment into the country has increased fivefold, from a cumulative total of about $NZ1 billion in 2010 to well over $NZ5 billion in 2015.
14 Sep 2016
China has mortgage issues, not a property bubble
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Whether China has a property bubble is an academic debate. The bottom line is the odds for a prolonged property slump are low on the back of urbanisation and the end of the deflationary threat.
13 Sep 2016
The negativity of negative interest rates
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
One of the key things banks do is borrow money for short periods of time and lend it out for long periods - maybe take deposits for three months and make home loans for 20 years. It is what is called ‘maturity transformation’ and when all goes well, it’s a profitable business.
13 Sep 2016
Indonesia’s underrated economic lynchpin
Greg Earl | Writer, editor and consultant
How many people could name the closest large metropolis to Australia? Singapore, Wellington, perhaps even Port Moresby might come to mind.
09 Sep 2016
Obama, Lagarde and making business easier at ASEAN
Anna Green | CEO Philippines, ANZ
Does the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have a role in a modern Asian economy? And the world?
02 Sep 2016
Piecing together the pieces of China’s economic puzzle
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
As Tolstoy once said, all happy families are alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.
30 Aug 2016
Yetsenga: Time to rethink India (and Asia)
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Promising developments are visible across a range of Asian economies, belying the mood of doom and gloom, ANZ’s new chief economist says, particular in India.
29 Aug 2016
Chinese bonds to shine in a world of negative yields
Daniel Everett | Global Head RMB Strategy & Execution, ANZ
According to ratings agency Fitch, the global pool of negative-yielding sovereign debt stood at a staggering $US11.4 trillion in August 2016. Around $US7.4 trillion of this debt was issued by Japan with the balance in Europe.
15 Aug 2016
China, Australia urged to deepen ties
Greg Earl | Writer, editor and consultant
Australia and China have been urged to embark on a friendship agreement modelled on Australia’s 40-year-old treaty with Japan in a major broadening and deepening of the economic and political relationship.
12 Aug 2016
ASEAN as important as ever: Bishop
Anna Green | CEO Philippines, ANZ
The ASEAN region remains an enormous opportunity for Australian investment and one that will continue to grow as regional policy changes take effect, according to Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop.
09 Aug 2016
Heavy traffic detour for NZ truckometer
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
An abrupt 5.7 per cent fall in ANZ’s Heavy Traffic Index in July runs counter to almost all other economic indicators and anecdotes, warning an economic slowdown may loom.
09 Aug 2016
Is there a limit to the battle between borrowers and depositors?
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
As interest rates fall around the world to historic, even negative, levels, both public and technical debates are alive about the implications for banks.
08 Aug 2016
A tale of several cities (in NZ)
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate to a record low last week but banks passed on only half of it at a retail level. A similar outcome is likely in New Zealand this week should the RBNZ follow suit, with bank funding costs having risen sharply this year.
04 Aug 2016
LONGREAD: Timor-Leste, Australia's northern exposure
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
Thirsty visitors to Timor-Leste might expect the dominant beer will be Indonesia's top-selling drop, Bintang.
02 Aug 2016
Why a British platform wants Japanese soccer (and what it means for chicken sandwiches)
Terrie Lloyd | CEO, Japan Travel KK
In July a Japanese organisation sealed what is probably the biggest online-content sales deal in the nation's history. It wasn't an anime sale, nor was it some massive multiplayer online game licensing.
26 Jul 2016
Will Japan hit the economic alarm or snooze?
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
Brexit was a shock for Japan. But it was I would argue a wake-up call. What to make then of the Japanese government’s surprisingly strong performance in the latest elections? The snooze button or a second alarm?
25 Jul 2016
Growing challenges in ASEAN
Greg Earl | Writer, editor and consultant
When the countries of Southeast Asia finally fronted up to their long-promised move towards a limited form of common market at the beginning of 2016 the main challenges seemed to be internal.
20 Jul 2016
How China’s rebalancing has created a trade recession in Asia
Glenn Maguire | Former Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, ANZ
A senior regional policy advisor I really admire refuses to describe the Chinese economy as ‘slowing’. I agree. But we are not 'slowdown deniers' - we both acknowledge a slowing China is a reality but feel this term in particular is a misnomer.
19 Jul 2016
The mood doesn’t match the facts - and promise - of Townsville
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
From Castle Hill, the 300-metre pink granite monolith looming over Cleveland Bay and spectacular Magnetic Island, the city of Townsville looks a like it should be a flourishing economic centre.
18 Jul 2016
The winners and losers of the AEC – it’s no EU for better or worse
Luke Hunt | Journalist & Asian correspondent
With hindsight, policy makers might not choose to launch what is called by some an Asian EU at this point in time.
14 Jul 2016
Brexit: the five stages of grief
Andrew Palmer | Head of FIG Australia, ANZ
The wounds – economic and political – are still raw from Britain’s vote to leave the EU. The global financial system continues to be under close observation.
11 Jul 2016
Nostalgia and the challenge of ageing
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Nostalgia is a beguiling, often sepia-toned wistfulness about a kinder, simpler past. It’s more prevalent the older we get. And advanced economies around the world are getting older.
07 Jul 2016
Brexit, Japan and Mrs Watanabe's granddaughter
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
Brexit has hit Japan. But there are both acute and chronic aspects of the contagion and the longer-term issues go far beyond Britain and even the EU.
04 Jul 2016
Filling the indigenous talent pipeline
Kath Walters | Content marketing consultant and freelance journalist
Down on the floodplain of the Goulburn River, in the regional town of Shepparton, a quiet revolution is taking place.
01 Jul 2016
How behavioural economics explains the Brexit
Dr Martin Joy | Senior Manager Public Policy, ANZ
If the Brexit – the UK’s decision to leave the European Union - doesn’t seem rational, you may be right.
01 Jul 2016
BlueNotes on the Brexit: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
Britain has voted to leave the European Union, upending markets and raising questions about the global economic outlook reaching all the way to the Asia-Pacific.
01 Jul 2016
How your business should react to Brexit
Frank Castiglia | Partner, Baker & McKenzie
Brexit will have significant implications for businesses in the UK and the EU – but also for businesses in countries, such as Australia with trade or investment arrangements in both regions.
01 Jul 2016
Brexit does not change the global growth outlook
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The market reaction to the news Britain has voted to leave the European Union has been strong –not unsurprisingly given markets expected the vote to swing the other way.
30 Jun 2016
Brexit: does the market even care about AAA anymore?
Sean Keane | Founder & Managing Director, Triple T Consulting
Back in the early 1990s the growing size and volatility of the FX market became an increasing concern of regulators as more and more participants began trading in larger size.
28 Jun 2016
Can you bank on brexit?
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
There are two particular groups devastated by Brexit: British pollsters and Japanese policymakers.
27 Jun 2016
What the Brexit fallout means for APAC
ANZ Research |
The UK’s unprecedented decision to leave the European Union has sparked a dramatic flight to safe haven assets and currencies. The initial reaction was pronounced but is now moderating, although it will take time to settle.
23 Jun 2016
Innovation in Australia: how safe is the safe harbour?
Samantha Kinsey & Tony Troiani | Restructuring & Insolvency Partners, King & Wood Mallesons
'Innovation' has been the buzzword of the Turnbull Government in Australia and there is no doubt it, along with entrepreneurship, is central to economic growth, job creation and future prosperity.
20 Jun 2016
Business, get creative: a labour shortage looms by 2030
Toby Roberts & Richard Yetsenga | Former Director Business Management & Chief Economist, ANZ
We know Australia’s population is ageing. We also know Australia’s economy is increasingly reliant upon the service sector. But few of us are thinking about the way these things collide.
16 Jun 2016
Five ways professional services firms can succeed in Asia
Megan Mulia | Director Research and Information, Asialink Business
Across Asia, the need for knowledge-based services is expanding exponentially. With the region’s burgeoning middle class set to grow from 500 million people today to 3.2 billion people by 2030, the total market for services is growing quickly, particularly accounting, legal and advisory services – industries in which Australia has developed global capabilities.
09 Jun 2016
Does China have a bad debt problem?
Raymond Yeung & Cecil Wu | Chief Economist Greater China & Head of Banking China, ANZ
Does China have a bad debt problem? Well, corporate debt levels in the country have risen and are higher than the global average. But it’s not quite as simple as that, with some factors unique to China which should be considered.
08 Jun 2016
Who is really responsible for compliance?
Mark Evans | Managing Director Transaction Banking, ANZ
“Compliance is good for business,” former ANZ chief executive Mike Smith told me when I took the role of chief compliance officer at the bank back in 2013.
08 Jun 2016
Round and round the circular economy
Sarah Boumphrey | Head of Strategic, Economic and Consumer Insight, EuroMonitor International
Modern consumers are reassessing their priorities and increasingly asking themselves what they truly value. They are asking questions like ‘Why own something that you only use sporadically?’ And ‘Why pay for space you don’t use?’
07 Jun 2016
Banks, financial risk and our changing climate
Kate Mackenzie | Manager Investment & Governance, The Climate Institute
Climate change is now widely recognised as presenting potential financial risk. Investors and other financial agents must decide exactly how they respond and take advantage of the opportunities which might arise.
06 Jun 2016
VIDEO: One third of China is already in recession
Simone Stella | bluenotes contributor
China’s economy is changing and it’s hard to tell where it will end up. To try to find out, BlueNotes spoke to CEBM/Caxin Insight Group chief economist Minggao Shen on video in Hong Kong.
06 Jun 2016
What Steve Ciobo and Penny Wong need to know about giant lobsters
Tania Motton | ANZ General Manager, Business Banking Australia
For three generations, the Ferguson family has been fishing Southern Rock Lobsters out of the Great Australian Bight. But they had a problem: too many lobsters were too big.
01 Jun 2016
Why we need to open up the north
Mark Hand | Group Executive Australia Retail and Commercial Banking, ANZ
Asia’s consumer revolution demands an appropriate-sized response. Amid variable conditions in Australia’s northern region, the right kind of response and development could see the area grow into a valuable business, trade and investment gateway to the rest of the country.
30 May 2016
Tax, spend and modern energy
Sally Adee | Editor, GameChangers
This is an edited excerpt from the New Scientist report, Gamechangers: Energy
26 May 2016
Australia slowing but still looks good: Elliott
Paul G Edwards | Publisher, BlueNotes
Australia’s economy has shown remarkable resilience in the wake of the transition away from the mining boom, ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott says, although he admits the country is slowing down.
23 May 2016
Is the world finally poised to arrive in Japan?
Elizabeth Masamune | Managing Director of @Asia Associates Japan
Take a stroll down any major thoroughfare in Tokyo, Osaka or Kyoto these days and you are highly likely to catch the patter of Korean, Chinese or Vietnamese, sprinkled with the odd interjection of English, Spanish or French. Close your eyes and it might sound more like walking down Bourke Street in Melbourne or Orchard Rd in Singapore.
18 May 2016
Stateometer: momentum subsides
Kirk Zammit | Former Economist, ANZ
Economic activity across Australia’s state and territories moderated over the year to March 2016. Slowing momentum is evident across the east coast, driven largely by a cyclical slow-down in employment and housing.
06 May 2016
Win-win for Australia, Singapore business
David Green | CEO Singapore and Head of South East Asia, India & Middle East, ANZ
The Australia-Singapore business relationship is about to take a major step forward. Because the relationship is so stable and the two countries so familiar with one another, it can be easy to take the value for granted.
06 May 2016
The boom within a boom: Chinese cross-border e-commerce
Casey Hall | Former Asian editor, WSJ, NT, CNN
China’s consumer economy is booming. So too, despite the well-publicised restrictions on content and channels, is the online economy. Now add ‘foreign goods’ to the fuel because cross border e-commerce is a boom within a boom – to the extent the government has just introduced some new controls on commerce.
04 May 2016
ANIMATION: The Australian Commonwealth Budget, explained
Felicity Emmett | Senior Economist, ANZ
Economic forecasts in the 2016-17 Australian Commonwealth Budget reflect the new normal for the Australian economy.
04 May 2016
INFOGRAPHIC: Winners and losers of the 2016-17 Australian Commonwealth Budget
Felicity Emmett | Senior Economist, ANZ
The 2016-17 Australian Commonwealth Budget has landed and as is the case in all years, some have benefited more than others.
04 May 2016
Australian Commonwealth Budget 2016-17: it’s a balancing act
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
With constrained public finances, hovering ratings agencies, and an interest rate cut emphasising economic fragilities, this year’s Australian Commonwealth Budget was always going to be a difficult balancing act. For the most part, it is a reasonable document.
03 May 2016
VIDEO: The key to the Australian Commonwealth Budget in just 120 seconds
Jo Masters | Senior Economist, ANZ
The 2016-17 Australian Commonwealth Budget helps address some of Australia’s structural challenges, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says, including the taxation of superannuation and the global services trade.
27 Apr 2016
It’s not the best of times. But not the worst either – mixed messages on the economy
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
The global economy continues to splutter with the International Monetary Fund once again downgrading its outlook (although still expecting growth) and a swarm of central banks expressing similarly gloomy views.
22 Apr 2016
A new era of Japanese investment in Australia
Yoshi Inoue | Former Head of Specialised Finance Japan, ANZ
Mrs Watanabe, a Tokyo resident, arose as usual at 5:30am on April 1 and turned on her living room light. It worked, much to her relief. Relief because that was the day the country’s electricity market entered a new era.
20 Apr 2016
Stateometer: NSW continues to outperform
Kirk Zammit | Former Economist, ANZ
The New South Wales and Victoria economies continued to grow at above trend rates in February, with NSW outperforming. While momentum appears to have eased in the two largest economies, this is not surprising as it follows a strong second half of 2015.
20 Apr 2016
China transition on track: Elliott
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
China’s transition toward a consumption-led economy is clearly underway.
19 Apr 2016
Vietnam, its new regime and the regional trade landscape
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
Vietnam’s national congress ended in January. The five-yearly event decides the course of the nation and all top appointments. Politically they are of course intriguing but the latest could have a marked effect on the prospects for economic reform in the South-East Asian nation.
18 Apr 2016
The new world for Australian corporate treasurers
Alan Huse | Head of Transaction Banking, Australia and Papua New Guinea, ANZ
The boom times are over for corporate treasurers in Australia. After a decade of relative ease, there is now a heavy focus on cost management and efficiency as the economy shifts. Meanwhile, the global nature of business is increasing the importance of an international perspective, especially when it comes to Asia.
15 Apr 2016
Three keys to Chinese banking reform – and what it might mean for Australia
Shayne Elliott | Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott is in Beijing for the Australia-China CEO Roundtable and Australia Week in China. He believes reform of the financial system is essential for China’s continued development and this is an edited transcript of a speech he gave on the subject.
11 Apr 2016
Why a shared approach to sanctions is best
Mark Evans, Guy Boyd & Dinesh Anand |
Of all the fines levied against financial institutions in recent years, those imposed on HSBC and BNP Paribas for breaches of sanctions and related financial crime breaches, totalling over $US10 billion, are perhaps the most notable.
05 Apr 2016
Five key agri themes from on the ground in China and Vietnam
Mark Bennett | Head of Aus Agribusiness, ANZ
How far is it from Beijing to Ho Chi Minh City? They could be planets apart if you ask attendees from our recent ANZ grains delegation from Australia and New Zealand.
05 Apr 2016
What leverage really means for banks
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Banks are leveraged plays on economies because they lend their capital many times over. So when economies are strong, banks perform even more strongly.
05 Apr 2016
The damage quantitative tightening has done
Greg Peacock | Chief Investment Officer, NZAM
There has been a significant change in global liquidity conditions during the past six months or so.
04 Apr 2016
BlueNotes debate: How much damage can disruption do?
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
BlueNotes Debates bring together important voices across the business, economic and social spectrum to thrash out where the issues lie. Managing editor Andrew Cornell recently chaired a forum of regional corporate advisory, restructuring and administration professionals. After debating their particular take on the outlook for 2016, the discussion turned to the impact of digital disruption.
31 Mar 2016
The other impending oil crisis
Alex Kewley | Director, Client Insights & Solutions, ANZ
While most eyes are focussed on the macroeconomic imbalance causing pushing oil prices below $US40 a barrel, elsewhere the real crisis for oil is accelerating with the adoption of autonomous electric vehicles.
30 Mar 2016
Japan's at a turning point – and that's a good thing
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Japan has entered its third “lost decade" of economic malaise following the collapse of its bubble economy in the early 90s.
24 Mar 2016
Who's to blame for the slowdown in world trade?
Rodney Maddock | Adjunct Professor of Economics, Monash University
World trade is now growing at about half the rate it did before the global financial crisis. On viewing the data several questions immediately spring to mind.
23 Mar 2016
The growing green bond opportunity in Australia
Katharine Tapley & Catherine Bremner | Head of Sustainable Finance Solutions & Former Head of Sustainable Finance Solutions, ANZ
This story is an edited version of a workshop delivered by Katharine and Catherine at the ANZ Global Capital Markets Corporate Debt Conference in 2016.
16 Mar 2016
Stateometer: slight east-coast easing
Felicity Emmett | Senior Economist, ANZ
States on Australia's east coast eased slightly in the first month of 2016 according to the ANZ Stateometer, although trends remain broadly positive.
15 Mar 2016
Four burning questions about China, in charts
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Many questions remain about the state of China's economy amid shifting internal attitudes and ambitious strategic initiatives. Below are four burning (and illustrated) questions about the China's new normal.
11 Mar 2016
Why business should get behind a one-belt, one-road China
Mukund Narayanamurti | CEO, Asialink Business
China's One Belt One Road (OBOR) is an ambitious strategic, political and economic initiative with the potential to create a new model of growth from Asia to the Middle East and Europe. Combined, the land and maritime belt and road will involve more than 65 countries, 60 per cent of the world's population and nearly half of global GDP.
10 Mar 2016
How Eight-One-One changed China
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
China's decision to devalue the renminbi (RMB) in late 2015 has led to a significant change in the way the country views itself economically and the broader outlook for the direction of its currency. Having just returned from China and a series of meetings with investors, corporates, regulators and commentators, I noted a stark shift in attitudes compared with my last visit six months ago.
07 Mar 2016
Can 'womenomics' really make Japanese women happy? And save the economy?
Elizabeth Masamune | Managing Director of @Asia Associates Japan
'Abenomics', Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe's 'three-arrow approach' to revitalising the world's third-largest economy has become well known globally, if not always well understood.
26 Feb 2016
Six Australian workplace megatrends of the future
Patrick Maes | Former General Manager Strategy & Planning, ANZ
Rapid technological changes provide a chance for Australia to commit to an innovative economy, but it won't happen unless we act.
23 Feb 2016
India vs the analysts
Alys Francis | Freelance journalist reporting on business and development across South Asia from India
Just as vigorous debate is underway in China over whether official data is painting a true picture of the economy and in Australia about unpredictable employment numbers, economists monitoring India are perplexed by seemingly conflicting information.
23 Feb 2016
Christchurch: off life support and beating again
Tim Murphy | Journalist and Former Editor, New Zealand Herald
It is just 1826 days since the Big One that threatened to break a community and an economy. Yet the businesses and people of the New Zealand city of Christchurch and the Canterbury region have put back many of the pieces of their home and work lives.
22 Feb 2016
Is the iron ore rally a false dawn?
Clyde Russell & Paul Bartholomew | Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist, Thomson Reuters & Senior Managing Editor, Platts
Iron ore, such a significant part of the Asia's Pacific's economy, has rallied over 20 per cent since December lows. So has it really turned the corner? We present insights from two of the region's most-respected experts.
22 Feb 2016
BlueNotes debate: bears v bulls in 2016
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
BlueNotes Debates bring together important voices across the business, economic and social spectrum to thrash out where the issues lie. Managing editor Andrew Cornell recently chaired a forum of regional corporate advisory, restructuring and administration professionals to debate their particular take on the outlook for 2016.
17 Feb 2016
Stateometer: stars in the east
Cherelle Murphy & Kirk Zammit | Senior Economist & Former Economist, ANZ
An exceptional second half has left Australia's eastern states in a strong position to combat what is likely to be a tough 2016, according to the latest ANZ Stateometer, with New South Wales and Victoria the standouts.
12 Feb 2016
Of a certain age: APAC's workplace demographics in the 2020s
Bernard Salt | Partner, KPMG and Adjunct Professor, Curtin University Business School
Everyone's getting older. As we approach the 2020s the world's population will reach a point which has been inevitable since the years following World War II: the retirement of the Baby Boomers.
12 Feb 2016
Quality, quality and other secrets to export success in Asia
Tania Chapman | Chair, Citrus Australia
Australian food is high quality but with quality comes heightened production and exportation costs. Indeed, Australia has some of the highest costs of production anywhere in the world - but you get what you pay for.
07 Feb 2016
BlueNotes debate: super innovation in superannuation
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Australia has the fourth-largest pool of pension savings in the world and now a government which recognises innovation as critical to economic well-being. So how can we ensure these funds are used to support Australian innovation in a way that supports both industry and super balances?
03 Feb 2016
China's 'V' for recovery ahead
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China's economic landscape is changing as traditionally frantic sectors lose pace while others speed into a 'new normal' era. The cyclical decline of property investment continues to drag on overall growth but our forecasts suggest a V-shaped rebound is on the way.
28 Jan 2016
Taut, tanned and terrific: Australia's economy on Australia Day
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
Australia Day typically marks the end of summer and start of the calendar year for business downunder. Since breaking for Christmas, Australians have been more focussed on the cricket and tennis than on the economy and financial markets.
27 Jan 2016
Why more RMB looks Hong Kong bound
Chaw Ming Quek | Former Head of Transaction Banking Hong Kong, ANZ
The Chinese central bank's recent actions have sent a strong message to those looking to short sell the Chinese currency: don't.
21 Jan 2016
Where is the world heading? China, Australian property and the global economy
ANZ Economists |
The economic world is a different place today than it was just a few weeks ago. Fundamentals remain steady but ructions on Chinese markets, Wall St and a New Year's offering of bleak news has a lot of people on edge.
21 Jan 2016
Where to for the Chinese tourist in 2016?
Terrie Lloyd | CEO, Japan Travel KK
The rise of the Chinese middle class has created a wave of tourism of great value to many neighbouring markets. Travelling Chinese spent an estimated $US229 billion in 2015 and over $US20 billion in close neighbour Japan. But current softness in Chinese markets means those numbers are now likely to stagnate and may even be about to shrink.
20 Jan 2016
GDP no panacea for China
Li-Gang Liu | Former Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China's below forecast (but still impressive) gross domestic product figures are unlikely to still beating hearts in China which will continue to see heightened levels of market anxiety caused by RMB depreciation, capital flight and equity volatility.
20 Jan 2016
ANZ StateOmeter: broad-based gains
Cherelle Murphy & Kirk Zammit | Senior Economist & Former Economist, ANZ
Housing activity remains elevated around Australia and services industry growth is continuing, new research shows, although the momentum from property is likely to slow throughout the year.
18 Jan 2016
The soft power (and big business) of sport in APAC
James Rose | Freelance journalist, Newsmodo
The likes of Nike, Under Armour and Adidas have a new name with which to contend: China's Wanda Group is moving some heavy weaponry into the global sports branding and marketing sector and is looking to blitz the big boys.
18 Jan 2016
Auckland, the underrated jewel of APEC
David Walker | Director, PWC
Sydney may have the harbour views and Melbourne the lifestyle but new research shows Auckland is the APEC city with both - and more.
11 Jan 2016
The next four quarters – where to from here?
Sally Reid | Global Head of Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
“For last year's words belong to last year's language
And next year's words await another voice".
- “Little Gidding", TS ELIOT
07 Jan 2016
What China’s big RMB statement means
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
The Chinese central bank's surprise decision to fix the Renminbi (RMB) below its last closing price serves as a statement on softening monetary policy which will place more pressure on the country's already heavily sold equity market.
07 Jan 2016
May the force be with China
Li-Gang Liu | Former Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Disney's "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" premieres in China, the world's second-largest movie market, this weekend and I'll be keeping a close eye on ticket sales.
04 Jan 2016
How to defend against the rising tide of corruption
Mark Evans & Freya Hone | Managing Director Transaction Banking & General Manager Compliance, ANZ
From Lance Armstrong to Executives at FIFA and the International Olympic Committee, the modern sporting world has been rocked by stories of corruption. But according to research from PwC the problem is more widespread than sport - and rising quickly.
17 Dec 2015
When will the Fed move next?
Tom Kenny | Senior International Economist, ANZ
The US Federal Reserve has tightened its monetary policy position for the first time in nearly a decade in a move reflecting little change in the central bank’s policy but greater consensus among its members.
16 Dec 2015
Stateometer: multi-year highs
Kirk Zammit & Cherelle Murphy | Economist & Co-Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland are all at multi-year highs for economic activity according to the latest ANZ Stateometer on the back of improved nation-wide business conditions, but downside risks still remain.
15 Dec 2015
What else is China buying in Australia?
Jerry Ge | BlueNotes contributing editor
The composition of Chinese investment in Australia is changing. Fast.
09 Dec 2015
Commodities brace for tough 2016 in Asia
Mark Pervan & Paul Deane | Former Head of Commodity Research & Former Senior Agriculture Economist, ANZ
The traditional year-end recovery for global commodities remains unlikely in 2015 and the situation in Asia is no different. All signs point to a similarly tough time in 2016.
23 Nov 2015
NZ or Australia – who is the luckier country?
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
For at least three decades New Zealanders have quietly lamented their lack of 'luck' when it came to natural resources and the performance of their economy relative to the 'lucky country' – Australia.
23 Nov 2015
Before doing business in India, you must eat
Nicola Watkinson | Minister Commercial and Senior Trade & Investment Commissioner South Asia, Austrade
In my role as Senior Trade Commissioner, South Asia with Austrade, I'm often asked for tips on working in the region and my answer is always the same: know the place. Get your feet on the ground. Be prepared to come to India. Come a lot.
23 Nov 2015
Inflation globalises, Australian inflation falls
Joanne Masters | Former Senior Economist, ANZ
An increasingly integrated world is delivering increasing uniformity in inflation across geographies. In part this reflects the commodity price cycle (notably oil) but there is evidence domestic inflation pressures are becoming more sensitive to global forces in a more integrated globe.
18 Nov 2015
Stateometer: Qld on the up
Kirk Zammit & Cherelle Murphy | Economist & Co-Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
Economic rebalancing is continuing slowly throughout Australia despite a downturn in resource construction, according to ANZ's latest 'Stateometer', with Queensland a big improver among the states.
27 Oct 2015
How the TPP will turn Japan's fruit & veg market
Terrie Lloyd | CEO, Japan Travel KK
For all the benefits the Trans-Pacific Partnership will bring to each country involved, a level of consternation has popped up in all countries and in Japan there's been a loud cry from the agricultural sector.
21 Oct 2015
Stateometer: property drives NSW and Vic
Cherelle Murphy & Kirk Zammit | Senior Economist & Former Economist, ANZ
The third edition of ANZ’s Stateometer continues to show Australia’s growth comes off the back of the big states NSW and Victoria. Together these states account for more than 50 per cent of the economy and in large part are fuelled by the surge in residential construction and strongly growing house prices.
13 Oct 2015
Chinese middle class to double spending by 2030
Andrew Geczy | Former CEO International and Institutional Banking, ANZ
China's middle class will more than double its spending by 2030, lifting consumption as a portion of GDP to nearly 50 per cent from just 38 per cent in 2014.
13 Oct 2015
Banking on ASEAN
Carli Renzi | Head of Business Execution, ANZ
Over the next 10 to 15 years the ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nation) bloc is forecast to replace China as the world's manufacturing hub, becoming the fifth largest economy in the world by around 2025.
12 Oct 2015
This Key may be hard to copy
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Everyone loves – and would love to copy – a winner.
12 Oct 2015
Hidden dragon in commercial property market
Jerry Ge | BlueNotes contributing editor
Despite the high profile of Asian, and particularly Chinese, investors in Australian residential property recently they have been playing a stronger but much lower-key role in the commercial property market. Could Chinese investors be the hidden dragon driving the market higher?
09 Oct 2015
Four fundamental concepts of the TPP
Tom Kenny | Senior International Economist, ANZ
After half a decade of negotiations the US, Japan and ten Pacific Rim nations finalised the Trans-Pacific Partnership this week. The specifics of the deal remain unknown, but we can assume the TPP will promote economic interaction between the 12 negotiating countries which represent 40 per cent of the world's GDP.
05 Oct 2015
Five ways to count the marriage equality boom
Cherelle Murphy & Mandeep Kaura | Senior Economist & Former Economic Statistician, ANZ
Marriage equality in Australia would bring economic benefits to the tune of at least $500 million in the form of additional expenditure related to weddings alone.
01 Oct 2015
Can Australia afford not to be in Asia?
Andrew Parker | Partner & Asia Practice Leader, PWC
Having lived and worked in Asia for a decade and a half, I'm very aware Australians do not adapt easily to the uniquely 'Asian Way' when it comes to business dealings. Asia is obviously different but uncomfortably so for many of those businesses with which I've worked.
25 Sep 2015
Brace for rate cuts in 2016
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
Soft global growth will likely force the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates early next year, potentially taking the official cash rate to 1.5 per cent.
17 Sep 2015
Is Australia really prepared for the Asian Century?
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
We are in the Asian Century but what does that mean? For Australia, there is a challenge in simply recognising the importance of understanding Asia and the varied cultures and the languages. But what is Australia's real understanding of the region and is it greater than it might have been 20 or 30 years ago?
15 Sep 2015
NZ's next billion dollar industry
Pete Barnao | BlueNotes contributing editor
In a sheltered bay in the spectacular Marlborough Sounds at the northern end of New Zealand's South Island you can see a glimpse of hidden treasure. Bobbing gently not far from the passing ferries to Wellington, to the untrained eye they're nondescript rows of floating buoys.
14 Sep 2015
China worries overblown: Smith
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
ANZ CEO Mike Smith has labelled global concerns over the economic health of China overblown and says the bank has no worries over its exposure to the Asian giant.
11 Sep 2015
How to stay the course on China
Leonie Lethbridge | CEO Cambodia, ANZ
The volatility across global markets and data out of China has unsettled many across the region. While the much-feared 'China Syndrome' is a fanciful worst-case scenario for many, what is happening in the Asian giant today is not the catastrophe many believe.
11 Sep 2015
Why global growth is going nowhere
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
ANZ has lowered its global growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 amid a number of restrictive cyclical and structural themes playing out across the world economy and warned there could be further downgrades ahead.
09 Sep 2015
The economy needs more women in construction
Laurice Temple | CEO, National Association of Women in Construction
It is no secret the Australian construction industry is very male-dominated. But what may not be fully understood by the general public is that we don't have any collective overt initiatives and goals in place to increase the participation of women.
01 Sep 2015
Introducing the ANZ Stateometer: Big states pull away from the pack
Cherelle Murphy & Kirk Zammit | Senior Economist & Former Economist, ANZ
There are a lot of data out there telling us about how the economy is going. Building approvals, retail sales, the unemployment rate and consumer confidence are a few of the frequent indicators we are inundated with.
31 Aug 2015
Will market volatility stall China's liberalisation plan?
Li-Gang Liu & Richard Yetsenga | Former Chief Economist Greater China & Chief Economist, ANZ
Financial market turmoil has dominated economic news from China over the last month but has the volatility stalled the crucial move towards freer financial markets? BlueNotes put the key questions to ANZ China economist Li-Gang Liu and head of global financial markets research Richard Yetsenga
27 Aug 2015
Is it time to head for the exits? Economists make the call
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
'Meltdown' was the only word to describe this week's equities price action which combined with plunging commodity prices, led by sharp falls in oil prices, with the CRB index hitting a 13-year low, and near panic across many asset classes.
20 Aug 2015
Winning the Away Game: the challenge for Australia-based global companies
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
A morning spent discussing tax policy may not be everybody's Woodstock. But I have a special interest in the topic.
19 Aug 2015
Greater access to energy equals greater prosperity for PNG
Geoff Culbert | President and CEO, GE ANZ
Only 13 per cent of the population in Papua New Guinea (PNG) has access to reliable power. The PNG government's plan would see this rise to 70 per cent by 2030 - something that requires a tripling of electricity supply over the next 15 years.
14 Aug 2015
Short term volatility, long term global currency. How will the RMB move from today to the future?
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Unsettling economic data, an equities meltdown, now intervention in the Chinese currency market by the central bank. Signs China is stepping back from financial liberalisation?
12 Aug 2015
What’s behind China’s currency devaluation?
Li-Gang Liu | Former Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) surprised market by announcing it would use a daily fixing rate method to devalue the Yuan (the Renminbi or RMB). This was an historic decision as it signals a possible shift in short-term economic and financial dynamics across the world economy.
11 Aug 2015
Foreign property buyers in NZ: how much is too much?
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
There are moments in any public debate where a nerve is struck, when suddenly the issue becomes the thing everyone is talking about and triggers a shift in policy.
11 Aug 2015
PNG's electricity generation challenge: Power to the people, power to the economy
Grant Mitchell | Director, Port Jackson Partners
Papua New Guinea's development goals require a tripling of electricity supply by 2030 - growth the existing electricity delivery system will be hard pressed to deliver.
11 Aug 2015
How PNG can power into the Asian Century
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
Asia's industrialisation is presenting Papua New Guinea with an unprecedented opportunity to fast-track its economic and social development.
07 Aug 2015
Australia urgently needs innovation
Kristin Stubbins & Chris Dodd |
Innovation has the power to drive economic growth, create wealth and lift employment in Australia, as it has done in the past and is currently doing for countries like the United States, China, Germany and New Zealand.
04 Aug 2015
Regulation: not enough lifeboats. Or too many?
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Following the Titanic disaster – the shipwreck not the movie – the global shipping industry and governments vowed to make sea travel safer.
04 Aug 2015
Vietnam's stunning turn
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
America and Vietnam celebrated 20 years of the normalisation of relations on the July 11. The two nations have seen rare closeness in recent years including recent Vietnam visits by former US President Bill Clinton and US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter.
03 Aug 2015
Why ChAFTA is more than just another FTA
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
The decision by China's President Xi to travel to Australia last year to sign a Free Trade agreement, while largely symbolic, remains one of the most important economic events in Australia's recent history.
31 Jul 2015
The future of intra-Asia investment
Kevin Plumberg | Senior Editor at The Economist Intelligence Unit
There's a big shift in inter-regional investment on the horizon in Asia. Economic relationships between regional neighbours are poised to become even stronger but remarkably different in the years ahead driven by increased private-sector activity.
24 Jul 2015
How the new Silk Road will bring the world closer together
Will Rathvon | Former Global Head of Resources, Energy and Infrastructure, ANZ
In late June a historic event occurred in the world of international diplomacy and infrastructure finance that aims to help satisfy the burgeoning need for Asian infrastructure growth.
17 Jul 2015
Vietnam's need for speed
Aseem Goyal | Head of Transaction Banking Greater Mekong, ANZ
"Vietnam is no longer a war. It is a country," writes Robert Dodge in Vietnam 40 Years Later, a work which seeks to reintroduce Vietnam to the rest of the world.
09 Jul 2015
What went wrong with China’s market
Li-Gang Liu | Former Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Investor confidence is tumbling in China and with it the county’s share prices driven by what has been in our view a rapid deleveraging process. The saga, which has seen billions of yuan wiped off the market, provides participants and regulators with an invaluable lesson on risk and rational investing.
07 Jul 2015
The ageing elephant in the room
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
It's the debate no politician, on either side of the Tasman, really wants to have: how can Australia and New Zealand afford their state-funded pensions as populations age and economic growth rates slow? And it's one increasingly relevant as countries around the region face maturing demographics.
07 Jul 2015
Greece, China and the middle-income trap
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
For the Greeks, the most positive aspect of the referendum was its clear-cut outcome. For markets, the same can also be said.
06 Jul 2015
What to expect from the AIIB
Li-Gang Liu | Former Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank passed another milestone in late June when 50 of its 57 founding members signed articles of agreement (AOA) for the institution. So now it is in operational mode, what can we expect from the AIIB?
02 Jul 2015
Three takeaways from the World Business Forum
Andrew Geczy | Former CEO International and Institutional Banking, ANZ
With six of the top 10 trading nations forecast to be Asian by 2020, it seemed only natural the region's leaders came together at the World Business Forum in Hong Kong in June to discuss the issues shaping the economic and business environments.
01 Jul 2015
What Greece's mire really means
Tom Kenny & Brian Martin | Senior International Economist & Head of Global Economics, ANZ
It's bleak times for Greece. The government has unilaterally broken off negotiations with its creditors and has missed its debt payment deadline to the International Monetary Fund.
01 Jul 2015
The future of free trade with Australia
Lisa McAuley | CEO, Export Council of Australia
When it comes to trade, the world is getting smaller. A spate of free trade deals between Australia and its Asian neighbours is linking economies and opening up avenues for commerce like never before and there's more action on the horizon.
30 Jun 2015
NZ coming off the boil
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
There was a time through 2014 and early 2015 when New Zealand was dubbed a 'rock-star' economy to be envied and studied by its regional neighbours for its 'magic recipe.'
29 Jun 2015
There's no reason for Australian businesses not to be in China
Rebecca Colquhoun | BlueNotes contributor
It's a growing view Australian businesses aren't doing all they could be doing in China. In the last few years countries such as Germany and the US have capitalised on China's growth. Why not Australia?
26 Jun 2015
Four themes dominating the thinking of American Corporate treasurers
Tareq Muhmood | CEO Korea & Managing Director Global Subsidiaries, ANZ
I spent the past week in the US talking to corporate treasurers of some of the leading companies in the world.
22 Jun 2015
It's seniors vs the RBA
Katie Hill | Strategist, ANZ
Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Christopher Kent issued a challenge last week. He said it would be useful to look at different types of households to understand whether the transmission of monetary policy through the Australian economy was becoming less effective. We've taken up that challenge.
17 Jun 2015
What China’s new consumer wants
Stefan Herrick | Senior Manager External Communications New Zealand, ANZ
Out past the glinting international hotels, the Ferrari and Lamborghini dealerships, Louis Vuitton and Prada, it's not hard to find old Shanghai.
12 Jun 2015
The unloved upsides of growth
Jason Murphy | Publisher, Thomas the Think Engine
I really love the life expectancy chart below. It shows humans are living much, much longer, an astonishing triumph that we celebrate not nearly enough. It also can be seen as an explanation of why economic growth is important.
25 May 2015
BlueNotes Podcast: Four signs an ASEAN boom is on the horizon
Glenn Maguire & Tammy Medard | Former Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific & Head of Diversified Industrials and Global Subsidiaries, ANZ
South East Asia is on the cusp of a boom as the ASEAN region looks set to emerge as not just a production hub but a domestic consumption hub as well. At ANZ, we think ASEAN will become as important for the global economy and for Australia and New Zealand over the next decade as China is now.
13 May 2015
Australian budget quick take: warm, fuzzy
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
The release of the 2015 Australian federal budget has seen the government maintain its path toward surplus, but at a slower pace than previously announced. The focus appears to be policy changes designed to give it a much warmer glow than last year’s ill-received effort.
08 May 2015
Budget headwinds both sides of the Tasman
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey looked longingly across the Tasman this week at New Zealand's tax system and its much-healthier Government finances but he is not the only one grappling with big economic headwinds in the quest for a surplus.
28 Apr 2015
Financial integration lags the ASEAN boom is that a problem
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
In what was a predominantly bullish and timely reminder the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) looms as the next economic giant in the region, a few challenges stood out in ANZ Research's latest economic insight, ASEAN: The Next Horizon.
24 Apr 2015
Australia’s next horizon
Glenn Maguire | Former Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, ANZ
I like traffic jams. When I find myself – as I often am – at a standstill in Hanoi, Manila or Jakarta, I am reassured all is well. As an economist, the traffic jam is one of the most tangible indicators of economies growing quickly, a burgeoning new middle class rapidly forming - these new middle-income households are purchasing vehicles and scooters for the very first time.
22 Apr 2015
The new FTZs opening China up
Li-Gang Liu & Raymond Yeung | Former Chief Economist Greater China & Chief Economist, Greater China, ANZ
In a further positiive development for market liberalisation in China, the country's State Council has formally unveiled its plans to launch three more Free Trade Zones (FTZs) within the Asian giant's borders.
21 Apr 2015
Deflation – so what?
Sally Reid | Global Head of Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
Expansionary monetary policy - loose interest rate settings and quantitative easing - is fuelling asset price growth across global property, bond, equity and even art markets. According to The Economist, “the global art market is booming”, with sales at a record volume in 2014 while prices for contemporary and post-war art have risen by 19 per cent.
21 Apr 2015
Seizing the services opportunity
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
As Australia picks up the pieces from the end of the mining boom, more of us than ever are focussed on the future of the economy. Many questions are being asked, like how can we diversify our economic base, how can we deliver more and higher-paid jobs and how can we pay for government services for an ageing population?
21 Apr 2015
Marching in step
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Australians and New Zealanders will be reminded of their shared histories in the deepest way ahead of the 100th anniversary of the landings at Gallipoli on April 25.
15 Apr 2015
Mike Smith: Asia’s importance has been undersold - not oversold
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
Banking is a long-term game about value creation. It is not short term and the obsession with quarterly results is frankly a distraction which risks influencing management to make poor decisions.
10 Apr 2015
India: The Asia Pacific’s most aggressive spender
Jennifer Farmer | bluenotes production editor
Around the world chief financial officers are putting into place spending plans for 2015. In the Asia Pacific, companies in India lead the charge among major markets when it comes to a desire to invest.
08 Apr 2015
Is Thailand still an attractive business destination?
Warwick Kneale | Managing Partner, Baker Tilly Corporate Advisory Services
by Warwick Kneale, Managing Partner of Baker Tilly Corporate Advisory Services and Accounting Services, Thailand and Myanmar. Baker Tilly Australia is represented as Pitcher Partners.
24 Mar 2015
Negative rates, negative news
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
We are truly in an extraordinary environment when many real interest rates are negative – that is, inflation is higher than the rate being offered on securities like government bonds.
12 Mar 2015
Behind the reform agenda of China's national congress
Li-Gang Liu | Former Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China's paramount policy setting confab, the National People's Congress, is in progress and has already delivered some key insights into the shape of the economy. The NPC will carry on into next week and official communications will be closely monitored by the market.
12 Mar 2015
Kiwi bosses more bullish
Bruce Hassall | CEO, PwC New Zealand
New Zealand's “rock star" economy may be peaking but its chief executives remain more optimistic than Australian – and global – peers.
10 Mar 2015
Aus job ads post ninth straight gain
Felicity Emmett | Senior Economist, ANZ
The labour market in Australia improved for the ninth consecutive month in February according to ANZ research, suggesting new labour demand is rising at a moderate pace.
10 Mar 2015
Laos is open for business
Tammy Medard | Managing Director Institutional Australia, ANZ
A landlocked country in the heart of the Greater Mekong, Laos remains unknown to many – probably most – outside its borders. When I was appointed CEO of ANZ Bank (Lao), most of my friends, family and colleagues asked "Laos? Where is that, Vietnam?"
25 Feb 2015
Australia’s major project spend in decline
Dylan Eades & Justin Fabo | Former Researchers, ANZ
The outlook for major project development in Australia has deteriorated, further evidence of a declining resource sector investment phase but also broader factors, notably lower commodity prices and a slower than expected pick-up in non-resource business investment.
20 Feb 2015
BlueNotes Debate – The Outlook for 2015 Part Two: Stress Points
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
BlueNotes Debates bring together important voices across the business, economic and social spectrum to thrash out where the issues lie. Managing editor Andrew Cornell chaired a forum of regional corporate advisory, restructuring and administration professionals to debate their particular take on the outlook.
16 Feb 2015
The biggest economic threats looming in 2015
Nicole Franklin | BlueNotes contributing editor
Geopolitical instability is the biggest threat to the world economy in 2015, according to ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan. Hogan warns the recovery in the US economy must live up to expectations if the world is to improve.
09 Feb 2015
Australian jobs ads maintain upward momentum
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
The eighth consecutive monthly rise in ANZ job ads is an encouraging sign that new labour demand continues to improve in certain sectors of the Australian economy.
05 Feb 2015
Six themes that will shape NZ’s economy in 2015
Cameron Bagrie | Chief Economist, New Zealand ANZ
After a lung-busting sprint in the wake of the global financial crisis, the New Zealand economy has settled into a quick trot. It’s firmly in expansion mode and it feels like the good times could last for quite a while.
03 Feb 2015
Global softness forced RBA to cut: Chronican
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
The numerous economic troubles facing the world, rather than any one large issue, played a role in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut interest rates to a record low of 2.25 per cent, according to ANZ Australia CEO Phil Chronican.
03 Feb 2015
A new equilibrium in Indonesia
Indonesia is on the cusp of a new ‘golden era’ where the principal arms of economic policy in the country coordinate to implement new President Joko Widodo's development plan.
29 Jan 2015
Australian economy faces new pressures
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
With falling commodity prices, QE in Europe and low inflation figures – how is Australia placed for 2015? Warren Hogan explains.
28 Jan 2015
No need for rate cuts: Mike Smith
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
ANZ CEO Mike Smith has urged the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold fire on interest rates and expressed confidence in the health of the Australian economy.
15 Jan 2015
ANZ cuts Australian growth, rates outlook for 2015
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
ANZ has lowered its growth forecast for the Australian economy and have now factored in two 25 basis point rate cuts over the first half of 2015.
14 Jan 2015
Perfect Australian borrowing conditions
Martin Whetton | Former Senior AUD Rates Strategist, ANZ
For those looking to borrow, the renewed fall in interest rates has delivered near-perfect conditions.
12 Jan 2015
Market calls: a rate cut for H1?
ANZ Research |
A softer inflation outlook could give the Reserve Bank of Australia a little more wriggle room than previously anticipated to support business and consumer confidence and help grow the non-mining economy.
08 Jan 2015
Statsnack: Aus home building hits record levels
ANZ Research |
Home building approvals hit an all-time high in Australia in November on the back of a surge in plans for multi-dwelling constructions like apartments.
22 Dec 2014
Where the Asia-Pac economy is going in 2015
Stewart Brentnall | ANZ Chief Investment Officer
It has been a mixed, sometimes volatile year for the global economy. The good news is ANZ expects 2015 to offer moderate gains in financial markets – albeit with increased volatility - as global economic growth grinds up a gear.
08 Dec 2014
Market calls: no cuts, no glory
ANZ Research |
The market reaction to soft domestic trade data released recently highlights the considerable economic challenges Australia still faces. While US activity remains strong, the third-quarter figures clearly demonstrate our domestic headwinds.
04 Dec 2014
Statsnack: housing out of puff
ANZ Research |
A soft outlook for economic growth, ongoing job security concerns and sluggish household income growth will likely moderate house price growth in Australia during 2015.
03 Dec 2014
International investors now more comfortable with ANZ's Asia strategy
Shayne Elliott | Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
Shayne Elliott, ANZ chief financial officer, speaks with BlueNotes about how ANZ's strategy is being received internationally and why fund managers are increasingly engaged in Asia.
01 Dec 2014
ASEAN leads gender parity charge to drive economic growth
Eugenia Victorino | Economist, ANZ
Good news: economic participation within ASEAN is higher than the global average, according to a world Economic Forum report.
01 Dec 2014
Market calls: another 12 months on hold
ANZ Research |
The Reserve Bank of Australia is not expected to move on interest rates for at least 12 months after ANZ Research pushed back its forecasts for a rate rise until at least November 2015.
27 Nov 2014
StatSnack: is there a non-mining recovery?
ANZ Research |
The latest capital expenditure data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics continue to suggest the shift towards non-mining drivers of growth is occurring. The survey points to a rise in non-mining investment of just over 5 per cent in 2014-15 in nominal terms, while mining investment is expected to fall sharply.
27 Nov 2014
MoleHill to Mountain: What lies ahead for northern Australian agriculture?
Paul Deane | Former Senior Agricultural Economist
The mining investment boom has peaked. Not so agriculture, which for many is the “next boom”. Consumption of agricultural produce will not reach its peak in Asia for another 40 years. And the implications for the future of farming in Australia are huge.
25 Nov 2014
Australia’s new window into China and beyond
Shane White | Content Manager, Institutional, ANZ
Australia’s first renminbi trading hub will be the country’s ticket to increased global network connectivity and go beyond improving our trading relationship with China.
24 Nov 2014
Market calls: a lid on inflation
ANZ Research |
Low inflation remains a key theme in the world‘s strongest economy but that could be about to change in two of the world’s most important economic regions.
21 Nov 2014
Statsnack: caution on the wane
ANZ Research |
Consumer caution has been a feature of the Australian economic landscape for some time now, recognisable in higher-than-average deposits, mortgage repayments and household saving rate.
21 Nov 2014
There’s no housing bubble – yet: ANZ Research
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
ANZ’s chief economist Warren Hogan, in an overview of key concerns facing the Australian economy, looks at housing bubbles, the fall of the Australian dollar, interest rates and the China issue.
20 Nov 2014
Aus and NZ – trade deal leapfrog
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Prime Ministers John Key and Tony Abbott will be rightly satisfied with their APEC and G20 work after finalising long-delayed and much-needed trade deals with Korea and China respectively over the weekend.
20 Nov 2014
Statsnack: labour outlook brightens
ANZ Research |
Another round of employment data has again showed labour demand continues to trend higher in Australia, casting further doubt on the veracity of Australia’s official statistics.
17 Nov 2014
Market calls: Chinese game-changer
ANZ Research |
The big news this week is the Australia-China free trade agreement which, when announced, will reportedly exceed industry forecasts. It's expected the breadth of concessions made by China will benefit Australia to the tune of $18 billion over 10 years, surpassing estimates.
10 Nov 2014
Market calls: don’t buy the jobs data
ANZ Research |
Recent developments in the labour market are expected to be a key driver of consumer spending, a factor many are looking at for the next step in Australia’s economic growth.
10 Nov 2014
Fieldays: a major player in assuring New Zealand’s economic future
BlueNotes reporter |
NZ Fieldays has become an unrivalled platform for showcasing NZ agricultural expertise and world leadership as well as demonstrating quantifiable economic impact.
07 Nov 2014
Commodity price falls unappreciated boon for ASEAN policy makers
ANZ Research |
Asian policy makers stand to benefit from commodity price disinflation as food and energy prices are plumbing the lowest levels since the great commodity inflation of 2005-08. They have their first opportunity to fundamentally revisit and unwind inefficient policies which effectively tax the allocative efficiency of their economies.
06 Nov 2014
StatSnack: growth data shrinks
ANZ Research |
Last week the Australian Bureau of Statistics released its annual national accounts data. While all economic data is old, these numbers are really old - although the data did offer a more accurate picture of 2013-14 from which forecasts for the coming year can be based.
03 Nov 2014
ANZ Research market calls: hard gains from soft Aussie dollar
ANZ Research |
The Australian growth outlook will be boosted by a softer Australian dollar amid changing expectations about US economic performance, according to ANZ research.
31 Oct 2014
ANZ CEO Mike Smith walks through the full year result
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Mike Smith walks through the components of ANZ’s September year result, across geographies, operations and outlook.
27 Oct 2014
Market calls: No hard China landing
ANZ Research |
China is unlikely to experience a hard landing and is likely to record a small improvement in momentum in country during the fourth quarter, according to ANZ research.
24 Oct 2014
Why iron ore prices are in the pits
Mark Pervan | Former Head of Commodities Research, ANZ
17 Oct 2014
A new business model for football?
Steve Worthington | Professor at Swinburne University
Football – real, international football – is the richest sport on the planet. Not just because the sums involved in leagues and players are huge, but because it is played so widely. Only the United Nations rivals the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA).
16 Oct 2014
Hard slog ahead for the global economy
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan has warned there is more hard work ahead for the global economy in the short to medium term with further challenges likely to moderate the pace of growth.
16 Oct 2014
The view from the street in Hong Kong
Ivy Au Yeung | Chief Executive Officer ANZ Hong Kong
All eyes were on Hong Kong last week as millions gathered in parts of the city, through rain and shine, in a bid for universal suffrage. The movement known as Occupy Central resulted in massive road blocks, traffic congestion, and the temporary closure of schools and businesses.
15 Oct 2014
Huge fillip for Australian start-ups from changes to share rules
Amanda Gome | Former head of digital and social media, ANZ
Like thousands of other entrepreneurs, I made a promise. When running my digital media start-up, I had offered a prominent journalist a small stake to lure him away from a prestigious job at a large company.
15 Oct 2014
The last of the flying-geese economies
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
CLMV? No, it’s not a luxury goods house - though it is increasingly fashionable. It's the acronym used to describe one of the world's most dynamic economic zones - the collective of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam. These ‘Mekong 4’ are the up and comers to watch in the world’s most dynamic region.
15 Oct 2014
The key challenges facing a new Indonesia
Daniel Wilson | Markets Economist, ANZ
In late October, Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo will be inaugurated as the seventh President of Indonesia. The island archipelago of 252 million people, spanning the distance of New York to Alaska, is at an economic crossroad and his presidency could well prove to be a defining moment in Indonesia’s economic history.
14 Oct 2014
Employers investing in mental health can get more out of employees
Jennifer Farmer | bluenotes production editor
Almost 45 per cent of Australians between the ages of 16 and 85 experience a mental health condition at some point in their lifetime. That's almost half the population.
13 Oct 2014
Where to now for NZ’s rock star economy?
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
Growth in New Zealand, dubbed the ‘rock star’ economy in early 2014, has gone from a gallop to a canter as the year has gone on, but a number of factors continue to provide underlying strength, according to ANZ Senior Economist Sharon Zöllner.
10 Oct 2014
StatSnack: it’s an investor’s housing market
ANZ Research |
Fears of valuation troubles in the housing market continue to be fuelled by growing property investor activity, which hit record levels in August.
09 Oct 2014
Inflation still a challenge for Modi: ANZ Research
Glenn Maguire & Devika Mehndiratta | Former ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific & Former economist, ANZ
The lack of ‘big bang’ reforms initiated by the new Modi government in India means the price of food and other goods is unlikely to come down. Without a majority in the upper house of the Indian parliament, the government is only able to deal only with ‘low hanging fruit’, and even then, these smaller scale reforms will take time to progress. More significant issues such as food supply and distribution will have to wait.
08 Oct 2014
Quiet achievers reveal where business is heading
Mark Whelan | Group Executive Institutional, ANZ
Normally, I’m not much of a list person but I’ve found an exception: the Top 500 Private Companies list, compiled by IBIS - and not in the least because I can count how many of the 500 companies bank with ANZ. We have six of the top 10 this year.
03 Oct 2014
Why the love for US-style BBQ is all about economics
Jason Murphy | Publisher, Thomas the Think Engine
These days, you can’t turn a corner without discovering some old Italian bistro or Chinese restaurant has turned into an American Rib joint.
02 Oct 2014
What the RBA can learn from the RBNZ
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Graeme Wheeler has done it again; defying expectations to intervene in a market to overcome a problem he couldn't fix with conventional monetary policy.
02 Oct 2014
What do affluent Asian customers want from their retail bank?
Sanjoy Sen | Managing Director for Retail Banking Asia Pacific
Asia's affluent middle class is growing rapidly. But more than that, as Asian customers become more financially savvy, they are demanding more dynamic and complex financial solutions and setting a new standard on how they want to be served by banks.
01 Oct 2014
Cool for cats? A new dawn in the land of the rising sun
Tim Harcourt | Author, The Airport Economist
Are there really jazz festivals for pets in northern Japan? And how are demographics and changing gender roles affecting Japan’s economy and society? The Airport Economist explores modern Japan for himself in this excerpt from his new book, Trading Places.
01 Oct 2014
Five ways NZ should get back to business
David Hisco | Former CEO New Zealand, ANZ
With the most resounding mandate in living memory, what’s a third term National Party-led New Zealand Government to do?
30 Sep 2014
Australian financial centres losing out even as plates tilt to Asia
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
As a Melbournian, the fact that Sydney is failing to deliver as a regional financial centre admittedly triggers a little schadenfreude. After all, they did steal the Olympics.
29 Sep 2014
How North American and European banks can tap into Asia’s big 10
Kevin Wong | Insights Director, ANZ
As the world’s economic engine continues to shift to Asia, North American and European companies will increasingly seek banking services that seamlessly connect to and within Asia. The challenge is many, particularly domestic and regional, North American and European banks don’t have the networks to make that seamless connection.
26 Sep 2014
The secret to better banking
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Banking, according to ANZ’s CEO of International and Institutional Banking Andrew Géczy, is just as much about monetising insight as it about capital.
25 Sep 2014
Up in the air: what lies ahead for road transport?
Mark Ganz | Director Client Insights, ANZ
Drones, unmanned aerial vehicles, are one of the more spectacular risks facing the road transport industry. No longer just science fiction, with companies such as Flirtey in Australia and Amazon’s Prime Air in the US set to launch in 2015, it is easy to see that the transportation sector will need to evolve or get left behind on the ground.
24 Sep 2014
The challenge for the new Fiji
Vishnu Mohan | Former CEO Pacific, ANZ
Fijians have been to the polls for the first time since 2006, in a very significant milestone for the small pacific island nation.
23 Sep 2014
Five reasons why investors will love the NZ election result
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
At BlueNotes, we’ve already explained why business is the big winners of the NZ election. Today, we break down five reasons why investors are also set to benefit from the re-election of the National Party.
23 Sep 2014
Don’t write off Chinese property: Mike Smith
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
ANZ CEO Mike Smith has defended the health of the Chinese property market, and warned against extrapolating small amounts of regional data and applying it across the country.
22 Sep 2014
Business the big winners of the NZ election
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Investors looking at New Zealand's election result from across the Tasman and up in North Asia should be breathing a big sigh of relief. They may even open a bottle of champagne or two at the re-election, for a third term, of a centre-right government with a strong mandate for economic reform.
22 Sep 2014
Death to the ATM – is it a matter of time?
Mike Ebstein | Director, MWE Consulting
A few of us can still recall our first tentative use of an ATM – an 'automated teller machine' - 35 years ago. The concept of accessing cash from your bank account via an unattended machine was then an alien concept that many people found somewhat confronting. Presenting a passbook at a bank branch counter to withdraw funds was how you got cash. And as with many technology led changes, there was suspicion of this newfangled device.
19 Sep 2014
BlueNotes StatSnack: Rates react to US strength
ANZ Research |
Australian events were overshadowed on the local market this week by the US Federal Reserve which continued to signal interest rates in the world’s largest economy will stay low for some time.
18 Sep 2014
Philanthropy: are we getting better at it?
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
In this second of our in-depth series on the Passion and Science of Giving, internet entrepreneur and dedicated philanthropist Daniel Petre delivers a forthright analysis of philanthropy in Australia.
16 Sep 2014
The main game in India-Australia trade
Tim Harcourt | Author, The Airport Economist
Prime Minister Tony Abbott surprised pundits last week when he put a free trade agreement between Australian and India on the table at a gathering in New Delhi. Among those most surprised was India itself, given that an FTA was barely mentioned in talks at that point, as the two U's - uranium and university students - dominated proceedings.
12 Sep 2014
NZ needs to build for the future
David Green | CEO Singapore and Head of South East Asia, India & Middle East, ANZ
The New Zealand economy has been one of the high performers among developed countries in recent times. But future growth is at risk of outpacing the country’s capacity. And the infrastructure plans that will help New Zealand capture this growth opportunity cannot all be funded from public sector sources.
11 Sep 2014
Australian small business following the US sector down – but can also learn from the US response
Amanda Gome | Former head of digital and social media, ANZ
BlueNotes recently revealed thats there has been a 30 per cent decrease in the number of start-ups in Australia in the last three years, from 342,753 in the 2010 financial year to 239,229 in 2013. That’s pretty big news. Add to that a decline in operating firms, and a big red flag should be waving.
11 Sep 2014
The endless opportunities of Asia
Phil Chronican | Former CEO ANZ Australia
For some time now, there’s been a great deal of focus on the incredible pace of change that’s taking place across Asia. ANZ’s view is that the Asian financial system will grow to be than the US and Europe combined by 2030, with China dominating.
10 Sep 2014
Where is all the cash?
Lance Blockley | Managing Director Consulting, RFi Group
Speaking at the BlueNotes-sponsored Australian Payments Innovation forum 2014, RFi managing director Lance Blockley produced this slide, which provides a fascinating insight into where Australian cash is actually held.
09 Sep 2014
Bank capital blow up
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
In Michelangelo Antonioni’s 1960s counter-culture classic Blow-Up, a hip photographer inadvertently captures what may be evidence of a murder in the background of a picture he’s taken.
09 Sep 2014
How business can look beyond China for the next wave of Asia’s growth
Andrew Geczy | Former CEO International and Institutional Banking, ANZ
Enormous shifts are occurring as a result of the Asian Century and they are reshaping the Australian and New Zealand economies and our businesses.
09 Sep 2014
Push into Asia and beat the rush
Mark Whelan | Group Executive Institutional, ANZ
One theme dominated ANZ’s Opportunity Asia lunch last week in Melbourne, co-hosted with The Australian Financial Review. That theme was: is now the best time to expand in Asia?
08 Sep 2014
How the big NZ parties will tackle the Asian century
BlueNotes reporter |
A fast-growing Asian population, controversial land sales to Chinese buyers and what is seen as an over reliance on China for dairy exports have been some of the hottest topics during New Zealand’s general election campaign.
08 Sep 2014
What do activist shareholders have in their sights?
Alberto Colla | Corporate Partner, Minter Ellison Melbourne
Activist shareholders are a permanent force in security markets today, but their motives and strategies are not always identical. But there are three areas on which institutional shareholders and dedicated engagement funds are most likely to focus their activist activities in the current financial year.
08 Sep 2014
Job ads jump again in August
Justin Fabo | Former Senior Economist, ANZ
A solid gain in the number of job advertisements in August suggests conditions in the labour market are improving slowly, according to the ANZ job advertisements series, Australia’s leading employment and economic activity indicator.
05 Sep 2014
Phil Ruthven: Five things to think about Asia
Phil Ruthven | Futurist and Founder, IBIS
Futurist and IBIS Founder Phil Ruthven gave ANZ’s Opportunity Asia Insight Series function in Melbourne five critical insights
05 Sep 2014
Should you be worried about the iron ore price?
ANZ Research |
National accounts data revealed this week that growth in the Australian economy slowed in the second quarter, following strong growth earlier this year.
29 Aug 2014
Transition to a non-mining Australian economy on track
ANZ Research |
The handover of growth from mining to other areas of the Australian economy looks on track with this week’s CAPEX report providing more good news on this front.
29 Aug 2014
White Gold or Dirty Dairy – will environmental worries hobble New Zealand’s dairy boom?
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
It seemed like a marriage made in heaven that would produce a never-ending boom.
22 Aug 2014
De facto monetary policy easing confirms next rate move is up
ANZ Research |
The Reserve Bank of Australia this week reiterated a point made in its recent statement on monetary policy that lending rates in Australia have fallen this year despite the cash rate being on hold.
19 Aug 2014
Australian banks continue to bewilder the northern hemisphere
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
The tale of the bank profit results and trading updates so far is retail banking is very healthy, business banking promises better but is yet to deliver and the credit cycle, almost incredibly, continues to defy sceptics.
15 Aug 2014
Wages growth low, business looking up
ANZ Research |
The rebalancing of the Australian economy is continuing but with little risk to inflation. In July wages growth was soft and business conditions and confidence was improving, as measured by National Australia Bank business survey.
15 Aug 2014
Capital strong, credit quality still positive
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
We can and we are producing returns [in Asia] above our cost of capital today and we can improve from where we are now.
15 Aug 2014
Mike Smith: solid result, optimism about economy
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
It was a really solid result across the bank … it reflects well on the strategy
13 Aug 2014
Crossing the Tasman with Mike Smith
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
There was a full ballroom at Melbourne’s Grand Hyatt today for the Trans-Tasman Business Circle business forum with ANZ CEO Mike Smith. Here’s the key takeaways from my wide-ranging conversation with Mike.
11 Aug 2014
What can lipsticks, condoms and burgers tell us about economics?
Nicole Franklin | BlueNotes contributing editor
Economic data is a mess. There’s so much of it, all the time, full of jargon, incomprehensible. That’s why everyone loves an index. There are lots of good, simple, proxies out there for economic activity that are far more understandable – and entertaining – than a 25 page economist report. Here are a few to tickle your fancy and put a spark into your next company presentation.
08 Aug 2014
Aus unemployment rate to remain elevated
ANZ Research |
ANZ is wary of reading too much into the July labour force report. We note it was an odd jump in the unemployment rate, at least partly due to statistical issues.
08 Aug 2014
Favourable labour market could see India rival China as world’s largest economy
Glenn Maguire | Former Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, ANZ
India is on track to rival China as the largest economy in the world in 2075 in real terms - if it can overcome some key hurdles.
04 Aug 2014
Job ads inches up again in July
Justin Fabo | Former Senior Economist, ANZ
The pace of improvement in job advertising has slowed but the modest 0.3 per cent increase in July is still encouraging, according to the ANZ job advertisements series, Australia’s leading employment and economic activity indicator.
01 Aug 2014
Global and domestic economic conditions slowly improving
ANZ Research |
Key indicators of Australian firms’ investment intentions have improved and a recovery in non-mining business investment is underway. There has been early improvement in business profitability and resilient confidence.
31 Jul 2014
Consumer confidence claws back to pre-budget levels
Warren Hogan & Savita Singh | Former Chief Economist & Bonds Rates Trader, ANZ
Consumer confidence rose a further 2.4 per cent to 116.2 in the week ending 27th July and has now completely retraced the sharp deterioration seen in the weeks around the Commonwealth budget. This suggests the ‘sticker shock’ from the budget was temporary, with the improvement in house prices and employment and recent signs of a pick-up in activity in the global economy likely supporting confidence at long-run average levels.
28 Jul 2014
RBNZ pauses on rates but warns on currency
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
In monetary policy terms, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has just decided to have a “cup of tea, a bex and have a good lie down” - possibly until well into next year.
28 Jul 2014
Stable inflation keeps currency watchers guessing
ANZ Research |
Looking through the statistical noise in recent quarters suggests underlying inflation near the middle of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2-3 per cent target band in six-month-ended annualised terms.
22 Jul 2014
New Zealand's Māori economy: a powerful force in the Kiwi success story
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
This year's Matariki or Māori New Year Festival marked a major milestone for both Māori business and the New Zealand economy.
19 Jul 2014
Mike Smith: three key steps for global growth and better governance
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
It would be wrong to say we have come through the worst financial and economic crisis in living memory – because we are still coming through it. We may be out of intensive care but, to extend the medical metaphor, we are now dealing with a chronic malaise rather than an acute one.
18 Jul 2014
Recovery for the Aus non-mining sector improving
ANZ Research |
Prospects for the recovery of the non-mining sector in Australia continued to improve this week.
16 Jul 2014
Traffic jams – physical and regulatory – gridlock growth and jobs
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
Around 400 business people from around the globe will converge on Sydney tomorrow for the opening of the B20 with one goal in mind: improve economic growth.
15 Jul 2014
Both equities and bonds fully priced so pay attention
Graham Hodges | Deputy Chief Executive Officer & Acting Chief Financial Officer ANZ
Meeting investors, both debt and equity, on our recent roadshows through Europe and North America, there was a clear concern valuations had moved ahead of earnings. That of course leaves valuations vulnerable to unexpected events and what is particularly significant at this point in time is both positive and negative surprises could be a shock to the system.
11 Jul 2014
Aus labour market slows as the economy rebalances
ANZ Research |
The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose back to its cyclical high of 6 per cent in June and employment growth slowed this quarter. Labour market conditions have softened in recent months following a strong start to the year.
07 Jul 2014
Aust job ads rebound in June, positive trend but negative budget mood remains
Felicity Emmett | Senior Economist, ANZ
A partial rebound in Australian job ads provides encouraging signs for the labour market, according to the ANZ job advertisements series, a leading employment and economic activity indicator.
07 Jul 2014
Buying into growth as NZ speeds up
Graham Turley | Managing Director, Institutional Australia
When Kiwi companies look at export markets – particularly in the growth regions of Asia – they quickly learn that a big business in New Zealand is a small business elsewhere.
04 Jul 2014
Aussie dollar dips on RBA governor comments on stable rates and stronger US data
ANZ Research |
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens confirmed the $A remains uncomfortably high and he felt "investors are under-estimating the likelihood of a significant fall in the Australian dollar at some point".
04 Jul 2014
Remember NSW? It’s a leading economy once more
Phil Chronican | Former CEO ANZ Australia
A decade ago it would have been a bit obvious to say NSW was driving the Australian economy but it does actually sound slightly odd to be saying that today. After all, NSW has no iron ore, no LNG, tourism slumped in the decade after the Olympics and NSW property prices have lagged the rest of the country.
02 Jul 2014
Mining exports boom as investment falls away
Felicity Emmett | Senior Economist, ANZ
Exports from mining over the next three years will contribute 1 percentage point to Australia’s GDP growth – enough to provide a solid offset to the decline in mining investment many fear will drag back the economy.
01 Jul 2014
The new China economy is already here but many are missing it
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
China stories often begin with a variation on the line about the Chinese word for crisis being composed of two characters, one danger and the other opportunity. That’s not quite right, the second character is, less precisely, “critical point”.
30 Jun 2014
China’s impending consumption boom
Li-Gang Liu & Raymond Yeung | Former Chief Economist Greater China & Chief Economist, Greater China, ANZ
China’s private consumption-to-GDP ratio is far below the average international average. According to the World Bank, private consumption represented 60 per cent of world GDP in 2012. For countries categorised as the middle-income group – to which China belonged in 2012 – the average consumption ratio was 55 per cent of GDP, or 19 percentage points higher than that of China.
26 Jun 2014
China must risk higher growth to implement needed reforms
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
The Chinese government must navigate the implementation of economic reforms while maintaining growth at a pace sufficient to keep unemployment steady. This is a difficult task for any government, and particularly so for the Chinese government right now, as many critical reforms to the economy will be potentially disruptive to growth. This is happening while many analysts and markets are worried about a loss of momentum in the Chinese economy.
24 Jun 2014
Inflating Asia: Supply side pressures set to trouble Southeast Asian states
ANZ Research |
Inflation is rising in Southeast Asia. Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines have all released inflation figures for May and all recorded upside surprises – perhaps a portent of a more generalised inflation dynamic to emerge over the second half of the year. Producer price inflation, the traditional leading indicator of headline inflation, has clearly turned up over the past year. In the case of economies such as Indonesia the pick-up has been quite marked.
23 Jun 2014
New Zealand’s Bull – or Cow – Rush
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
In the huge produce hall at Fieldays in Hamilton New Zealand, the southern hemisphere’s largest agricultural trade fair, a sausage and small goods maker was lamenting how difficult he was finding it to secure supplies of top quality beef and lamb.
20 Jun 2014
The shine’s returning to the Emerald City
ANZ Research |
The unemployment rate in Sydney has fallen below 5 per cent compared with a jobless rate of more than 6 per cent for the rest of Australia.
16 Jun 2014
NZ leads the rate world
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has stepped further out on its own with last week’s tightening monetary policy again at a time when the rest of the developed world's central banks are either holding rates at record lows or printing money.
13 Jun 2014
Job ads consistent with slower jobs growth
ANZ Research |
Job growth in Australia slowed in May, consistent with other domestic indicators in the second quarter.
11 Jun 2014
Supply side of Asian economy is changing quickly
Glenn Maguire | Former Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, ANZ
Supply side of Asian economy is changing quickly.
06 Jun 2014
Can Australian business confidence hold up?
ANZ Research |
Business confidence is proving more resilient to the confidence hit from the Commonwealth budget than consumer confidence.
03 Jun 2014
Consumer confidence surprises on upside
Amanda Gome | Former head of digital and social media, ANZ
Australian consumer confidence has bounced back after a recent plunge, the first, albeit tentative, sign of Australians shaking off their recent funk. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey has turned around after its recent plunge, rising 2.9 per cent in the week ending 1 June - the first increase since negative news flow related to the Budget began six weeks ago.
03 Jun 2014
Migration to New Zealand is rising
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
In a year when house prices and interest rates are already going to be major election themes, strong migration flows become even more polarising than usual. And migration is never politically easy.
02 Jun 2014
Opportunities for ANZ remain strong in China
Amanda Gome | Former head of digital and social media, ANZ
Opportunities for ANZ remain strong in China
30 May 2014
Non-mining capex intentions improve modestly
ANZ Research |
There are mixed messages for the Australian economy, with new risks emerging over the past month for Australia’s growth outlook. New downside forces are minor but they do temper the strong start to the year.
27 May 2014
A Chinese global currency is approaching
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Delivering his opening remarks to the second Australia-Hong Kong RMB Trade and Investment Dialogue, Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief executive Norman Chan outlined the enormous growth in usage of the Chinese currency internationally since the first tentative openings just three years ago.
27 May 2014
Chinese consumers’ confidence robust
Li-Gang Liu | Former Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Chinese consumers’ confidence robust.
23 May 2014
Budget blues weaken consumer confidence in Australia
ANZ Research |
This week in Australia, the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index fell a further 3.2 per cent to 100.4.
23 May 2014
What’s driving New Zealand’s ‘rock star economy’?
Cameron Bagrie | Chief Economist, New Zealand ANZ
What’s driving New Zealand’s ‘rock star economy’?
16 May 2014
Can the Abbott government achieve its budget aspirations?
ANZ Research |
The Australian federal budget delivered only a mild tightening of fiscal policy (with a deficit of $A30 billion forecast for 2014-15) and set the ball rolling on its long-term aspiration of returning the budget to a surplus of at least 1 per cent of GDP within a decade.
16 May 2014
Eco migrants head back to NZ with growth, tax cuts in the budget
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
Just as Australians are digesting news of a tax hike, New Zealanders can look forward over the next four years at the prospect of tax cuts, budget surpluses and a steady reduction in public debt.
13 May 2014
Shaky Isles shake up bank returns
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Not unexpectedly, this latest reporting season for three of the four major Australian banks was typified by a hard slog on revenue, a grind on cost control and cyclically low bad and doubtful debt charges.
13 May 2014
A tale of two budgets
Bernard Hickey | Publisher at Hive News
The Australian and New Zealand Budgets this week illustrate the contrasting outlooks for the two economies. And the distinctly divergent approaches of their Governments over the last three years.
12 May 2014
Much more than a quarry to Australia’s business landscape
Catherine Welch | Researcher, The University of Sydney Business School
Mining companies deliver 54 per cent of Australia’s goods exports by value, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). But those same statistics show that these miners represent only 1 per cent of the number of Australian goods exporters.
09 May 2014
Australian consumer confidence shaken by budget leaks
ANZ Research |
australian-consumer-confidence-shaken-by-budget-leaks.
09 May 2014
How Aussie farmers can find the Food Bowl
David McKinna | Principal, MCKINNA
There is an apparent disconnect between the optimism around the Asian dining boom and the pessimism of many Australian farmers, at least as it is portrayed in the media.
07 May 2014
Australian budget tightening not so stringent
Warren Hogan | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
Only a modest fiscal tightening should result from next week's Australia federal budget despite media previews already hitting consumer confidence.
05 May 2014
Capitalism with a conscience
Hayley Morris | Founder, The Ideas Nest
Buy, consume, dispose – such is the widely accepted framework that we consumers accept and operate within. But turning this framework on its head is a steadily growing, global movement known as “collaborative consumption”.
05 May 2014
How to achieve a surplus of 1% of GDP
ANZ Research |
how-to-achieve-a-surplus-of-1-of-gdp.
28 Apr 2014
Will the greenback remain a reserve currency?
ANZ IIB Insights |
We will move, ultimately, to a world of multiple reserve currencies – but it will take more time to get there.
28 Apr 2014
Focus on US Fed and GDP data
Tony Morris | Queen's Counsel Lawyer
This period of relatively low volatility will continue – leaving aside geo-political risk – so good for equity markets.
23 Apr 2014
Cards sharp on Consumer Confidence in NZ
Mike Ebstein | Director, MWE Consulting
Two broad themes emerge from a comparison of Australian and New Zealand payment card data: a developing shift from debit card spending to credit card spending is a strong indicator of consumer confidence and hence economic recovery. And New Zealand is much further down the track than Australia in returning to confidence.
22 Apr 2014
Five ways to kickstart entrepreneurship
Mark Whelan | Group Executive Institutional, ANZ
Last week on BlueNotes, I shared my concern that as a country we are prone to ignore entrepreneurship at a time when the rest of the world is putting it in the spotlight.
17 Apr 2014
The infrastructure pipeline
ANZ IIB Insights |
There’s been a flurry of recent infrastructure headlines. The Victorian Government’s May 6 budget will include plans for a new electrified rail service running along dedicated tracks from Melbourne Airport to Southern Cross Station. Although details of costs have yet to be disclosed, the track is expected to be completed by the end of the decade.
16 Apr 2014
Is the Australian financial sector too big?
Rodney Maddock | Adjunct Professor of Economics, Monash University
Australia’s financial sector has doubled the size of its contribution to the economy in the last three decades and now represents 10 per cent of total value added, one dollar in every 10 of value. Relative to other countries, this is a lot. The question is whether it is too much. Is the sector too big?
16 Apr 2014
Better eco outlook, Fed spending to help states
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
The Commonwealth’s greater-than-normal influence on the 2014-15 state budgets is also where their greatest vulnerabilities lie.
16 Apr 2014
Restoring India’s financial stability
G. Mahalingam | Former Reserve Bank Executive Director
I don’t think we can be complacent. We need to go forward with reforms.
15 Apr 2014
Next rate move is up but when?
Ivan Colhoun | Former Chief Economist, ANZ
Jobs ads always tell you what’s going to happen to unemployment and what’s going to happen to interest rates.
11 Apr 2014
Chart of the week: Australian employment
ANZ Research |
Change in employment over the last three months (sa, 000s)
07 Apr 2014
Daylight dawns for the Asian financial system
Mike Smith | Former Chief Executive Officer, ANZ
Based as I am in Australia, I’m well used to heading to bed as European markets open and waking up – sometimes suddenly – to surprising news from the US. Even during my frequent visits to Asia, financial markets seem to be set in the dead of night. And it’s been that way for all of the 35 years that I have been working in the region.
04 Apr 2014
Uncaging the Tiger – but is it ready to escape?
Caged Tiger highlights an obvious deficiency of the Asian century: an underdeveloped financial system is constraining Asia’s economic potential. Whether we will be able to witness an Asian Century really depends on whether Asian economies can get their financial systems set up so they can leap through the middle income trap.
24 Mar 2014
Unleash the Tiger
ANZ Corporate Communications |
A more rapid and broader development of financial markets in Asia is increasingly important to support economic growth in the region. ANZ Research projects 10 key Asian economies will together come to dominate global finance. The importance of Europe and the US will shrink. That will mean the emergence of multiple financial centres, increasingly sophisticated financial products and firms which invest in them. Asia will increasingly finance Asia. ANZ estimates the region’s financial system could be as large as $US200 trillion by 2030. This would make it about four times the current size of the Asian financial system and more than twice as big as we project the US financial system to be in 2030.
24 Mar 2014
Global financial centres move to Asia
ANZ Corporate Communications |
Caged Tiger: The transformation of the Asian Financial System
13 Mar 2014
From wet market to supermarket
Tania Motton | ANZ General Manager, Business Banking Australia
China’s sprawling “wet” markets dominate the sales of fresh produce – but they are not where the opportunity for primary producers lay. Growing wealth is sending Chinese shoppers to supermarkets. Packaging, distribution and marketing are critical challenges if Australian and New Zealand companies want to grow their role in “feeding the dragon”. As a China-Australia Free Trade Agreement becomes more likely, new strategies are required.
13 Mar 2014
Cashless? Or just less cash?
Steve Worthington | Professor at Swinburne University
Since the emergence of homo-sapiens more than 2000 years ago, humans have used different forms of money, both as a means of exchange and as a store of value. Despite the advent of internet banking and the various types of non-cash payment option, cash is still an omnipresent feature in most people’s purse or wallet.
15 Oct 2013
'Bold Thinking'
ANZ Corporate Communications |
The fourth report in the ANZ insight series, ‘Bold Thinking: Imagining PNG in the Asian Century’ was released on 15 October 2013.
19 Oct 2012
'Greener Pastures'
ANZ Corporate Communications |
The third report in the ANZ insight series, ‘Greener Pastures: The Global Soft Commodity Opportunity for Australia and New Zealand’ was released in October, 2012.
06 Oct 2012
'Quality Matters'
ANZ Corporate Communications |
The second report in the ANZ insight series, ‘Quality Matters: A Progress Report on Australia’s Natural Resources Export Opportunity’ was released on 6 October 2012. The report provides an update on Australia’s progress in capturing the commodity opportunity created by a developing Asia. It follows the release in 2011 of the first ANZ insight report, ‘Earth, Fire, Wind and Water: Economic Opportunities and the Australian Commodities Cycle.’
Digging in to dirty data
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
The cult of analytics seems a million miles removed from dirt, but data management is being used to map and categorise soil in the hope it will lead to greater food security, better soil health and long-term benefit to the global agriculture sector.