30 May 2023
India – what’s all the excitement about?
Rufus Pinto |
India has a remarkable history and story unlike any other. As it becomes the world’s most populous nation, it’s greatest chapter may still to be written.
Economics
05 Apr 2023
Japan and Australia: partners in decarbonisation and energy security
Ian Williams, Damien Roberts and Edward Watson | Senior Adviser, Partner & Solicitor, Herbert Smith Freehills
Japan and Australia’s already strong relationship has undergone a “step-change” in the past 18 months. They are now becoming trusted partners in decarbonisation and energy security.
15 Mar 2023
When the liquidity tide goes out – gradually, then suddenly
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
28 Feb 2023
Will the fixed rate roll-off cause a recession or will low unemployment save the day?
Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economist, ANZ
Higher interest rates mean mortgages are more expensive; many fear a recession. But the low unemployment rate and strong demand for workers brings hope to economists.
16 Feb 2023
Tall stories about the economy
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
The world in economic downfall… Fake news?
13 Feb 2023
New Zealand Outlook: Brake Point
Miles Workman | Senior NZ Economist, ANZ
Recession looms in New Zealand as inflation crackdown bites.
10 Feb 2023
China reopens; Australia wins
Felicity Emmett, Raymond Yeung, Adelaide Timbrell & Madeline Dunk | Senior Economist, Chief Economist, Senior Economist, Economist, ANZ
China’s move past COVID lockdowns is good news for the Australian economy
09 Feb 2023
India: already risen and rising
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
With a GDP per capita of USD2,500, ranking 185th in the world, India’s growing economic scale is something to watch.
16 Nov 2022
Australian retail outlook – spending up, confidence down, sales peaks shifting
Tim Suffield & Daniel Ling | Head of Client Insights Institutional, ANZ & Associate Director Insights, ANZ Institutional
With Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales becoming annual events on the retail shopping calendar, how are household spending habits changing?
14 Nov 2022
Queensland’s perfect storm of growth
Shane White | Content Manager - Institutional, ANZ
The economic opportunity in Queensland is significant but it comes with challenges.
09 Nov 2022
The end of the world as we know it
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
Globalisation is in retreat, the environment is besieged, wealth disparity is growing. It’s not the fault of capitalism but those who promote liberal, open economies must take notice.
04 Nov 2022
Australian wages growth measures tell different stories. What’s going on?
Catherine Birch | Senior Economist, ANZ
As Australians struggle with inflation and the cost of living, not everyone is benefitting from higher average earnings.
26 Oct 2022
Budget 2022: the flow-on effects for business
Jenefer Stewart | General Manager Business Banking, ANZ
Budget 2022: the flow-on effects for businessSmall businesses can expect more consistent spending if the Budget helps curb the inflationary pressures affecting households, ANZ General Manager Business, Banking Jenefer Stewart explains.
26 Oct 2022
YETSENGA: Budget 2022, reframing the narrative
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
ANZ Chief Economist explains how the ALP government has taken advantage of its first Budget to reset the parameters, the narrative and the framework of Australia’s economic story.
19 Oct 2022
Global risk outlook: sunny with chance of storms
Kevin Corbally | Chief Risk Officer, ANZ
Kevin Corbally, ANZ’s Chief Risk Officer, discusses the current risk climate in Australia and globally in this bluenotes podcast.
29 Sep 2022
The Emergence of the ‘First Time Rate Risers’ (FiTeRRs)
Alan Shields | Chief Data Officer, RFi Group
If you are under 35, it’s almost certain you haven’t been a borrower through a rising interest rate cycle. Are young borrowers prepared for higher loan payments?
27 Sep 2022
Emerging Economics Series: Where to now for Australian housing?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
It is an inflexion point for Australian residential property with the first sustained rising interest rates cycle in nearly two decades. What does it mean for home owners and renters?
26 Aug 2022
Economic shorts: Inflation insights
Catherine Birch | Senior Economist, ANZ
Strong demand and supply constraints are key drivers of inflation in Australia
09 Aug 2022
New Zealand’s economy: on the edge
Miles Workman | Senior NZ Economist, ANZ
As central banks grapple with inflation and labour shortfalls, New Zealand’s economy will be hoping for a boost from exports and unemployment
05 Aug 2022
Economic shorts: The Labour Force Redeploys
Catherine Birch | Senior Economist, ANZ
While inflation is on the rise a strong labour market may insulate the Australian economy from a sharp deterioration.
04 Aug 2022
Higher Rates and inflation: ending Australia’s decade in the economic doldrums
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
With the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking interest rates, how much of those increases will be permanent?
22 Jul 2022
The checkout: tracking Aussie food prices
Madeleine Swan | Director of FBA Insights, ANZ
Australian food bills have increased by more than many other developed countries because of the country’s status as a major food exporter to booming Asian economies.
10 Jun 2022
Global food stocks consumed by shortage
Soni Kumari & Susan Kilsby | Commodity Strategist & Agriculture Economist, ANZ
A perfect storm of issues is leading to increased food insecurity. And this global crisis will get worse.
26 May 2022
IN CHARTS: construction delays don’t impact demand
Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economist, ANZ
Australia’s construction industry fell behind in the first quarter of 2022. But it wasn’t from a lack of demand.
23 May 2022
Election aftermath: a new era of policy
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga examines the issues that will dominate the economic agenda post-election.
20 May 2022
Kiwi economy: tougher times ahead?
Miles Workman | Senior NZ Economist, ANZ
New Zealand, like many nations globally, is facing into a very different economic environment for the remainder of 2022 and beyond.
19 May 2022
Stateometer: trade drives momentum
Bansi Madhavani | Senior Economist, ANZ
Sharp increase in trade drove economic momentum in the first quarter, the ANZ Stateometer shows, despite a slew of challenges.
02 May 2022
Economic shorts: watching rates, inflation
Adelaide Timbrell & Catherine Birch | Senior Economists, ANZ
There is a lot of focus on inflation and cash rates in Australia today – and there will be more. But what happens when they move and how does it impact the economy?
29 Mar 2022
Budget 2022-23: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
ANZ has full coverage, analysis and opinion on the release of the 2022-23 Australian Federal Budget and what this means for individual, businesses – big and small – and the economy.
03 Mar 2022
Monitoring the economic damage of crisis
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine shouldn’t have a major global economic impact outside of Europe. For now.
28 Jan 2022
Tonga recovery: one day at a time
Kishti Sen & Tom Kenny | International Economist & Senior International Economist, ANZ
The road to recovery for the Tongan community will be tough. Support from neighbouring nations is essential.
25 Jan 2022
IN CHARTS: commodities navigate supply risks
Daniel Hynes & Soni Kumari | Senior Commodities Analyst & Commodities Strategist, ANZ
A range of supply disruptions are threatening to blow commodities such as energy off course in 2022.
21 Jan 2022
LONGREAD: inflation costs us all but some more than others
Finn Robinson & Sharon Zollner | Economist & Chief Economist NZ at ANZ
With inflation running at increasingly high levels, low-income Kiwis are really starting to feel the pinch.
18 Nov 2021
A clearer path to a sustainable transition
Mark Whelan | Group Executive Institutional, ANZ
Financial services companies have a clearer framework for sustainability investments in the wake of the COP26 conference in Glasgow.
10 Aug 2021
Retail remains resilient amid re-emerging crisis
Adelaide Timbrell & David Plank | Economist & Head of Aus Economics, ANZ
Household spending in Australia should snap back quickly after lockdowns with working from home a key driver.
12 Jul 2021
Macroprudential controls needed to cool housing market
Felicity Emmett & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists, ANZ
ANZ Research expects stronger home loan regulations to be introduced in Australia before the end of the year.
20 May 2021
Stateometer: greater momentum
Bansi Madhavani, Catherine Birch & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists and Economist, ANZ
ANZ’s Stateometer shows economic momentum in Australia’s states and territories is building.
12 May 2021
Budget 2021: the biggest wins for business
Jenefer Stewart | General Manager Business Banking, ANZ
Tax breaks, incentives for skilled labour and addressing digital security stand out for business in Australian budget.
12 May 2021
Budgeting for equality
Felicity Emmett | Senior Economist, ANZ
From an equity perspective, the 2021 Federal Budget has taken the right steps.
12 May 2021
VIDEO: the return of fiscal policy
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Speaking on video, the ANZ Chief Economist says budget pushes the fiscal boundaries – and is right to do so.
12 May 2021
Budget 2021: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
bluenotes presents comprehensive coverage of the 2021-22 Australian Federal Budget.
12 May 2021
The budget in pictures
Adelaide Timbrell & Hayden Dimes | Economists, ANZ
See all the key announcements from the 2021-2022 Australian Federal Budget in this infographic.
11 May 2021
A stimulatory budget
ANZ Research |
Budget shows strong commitment to spend until unemployment is below pre-COVID-19 levels.
30 Mar 2021
IN CHARTS: The divided states of COVID-19 in the US
Tom Kenny & Rini Sen | Senior International Economist and Economist, ANZ
Data and insights from ANZ Research show despite increased vaccinations across the US, daily cases of COVID-19 are edging up.
26 Mar 2021
Post-COVID house prices leave 2020 behind
Felicity Emmett & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists, ANZ
Australia’s housing market has had a strong recovery following a modest 2020. But millennial buyers are being left behind.
25 Feb 2021
Stateometer: disparities in economic recovery
Bansi Madhavani, Catherine Birch & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists and Economist, ANZ
Australia’s states and territories continue to rebuild from recession through the final quarter of 2020 but restrictions still pose risks.
19 Feb 2021
A renewed future for Australia in renewables
David Roberts, Tsen Wong & Katherine O’Connor | Head of Project Advisory Corporate Finance, Head of Energy & Director Project and Export Finance, ANZ
The development of the renewable energy industry will create new investment and employment opportunities in Australia.
22 Oct 2020
Here comes the rain again
Daniel Hynes & Soni Kumari | Senior Commodities Analyst & Commodities Strategist, ANZ
An incoming La Niña weather system could have a sizeable impact on supply and demand across a range of commodities.
14 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: expected impact, in charts
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Has the 2020-21 Australian Federal Budget gone far enough to encourage spending in a post-COVID economy?
09 Oct 2020
In charts: being COVID-free isn’t everything
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
New Zealand Chief Economist, Sharon Zollner provides the data on how the land of the long white cloud is making its way to a COVID normal.
07 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: the biggest wins for business
Jenefer Stewart | General Manager Business Banking, ANZ
Policy announcements on skills, regional investment, depreciation and tax changes will help steady an Australian business community which has struggled through the crisis.
06 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: the new era of fiscal leadership
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Speaking on video, the ANZ Chief Economist scores the Federal Budget on three fronts.
06 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: in pictures - 2020 vision
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
See the key announcements for the 2020-2021 Australian Federal Budget in this infographic.
06 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: spend, business, spend
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Australia’s 2020-21 Federal Budget was designed to get the private sector spending again.
06 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: engineering a recovery
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Australian Federal Budget prioritises a private sector recovery, with fiscal conservatism tossed aside.
06 Oct 2020
The new fiscal reality
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
The modern fiscal world is radically different from any before it. What does the mean for the post-COVID recovery?
06 Oct 2020
Budget 2020: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
bluenotes presents comprehensive coverage of the 2020-21 Australian Federal Budget.
29 Sep 2020
Central Banks get cryptic
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
As global interest rates crater and COVID-19 recessions metastasise, central banks are being forced to re-evaluate their role in currency and money creation.
25 Sep 2020
On the cusp of a second wave
Brian Martin | Senior International Economist, ANZ
Comprehensive, localised restrictions are needed for Europe and the UK to recover quickly from a new wave of COVID-19 cases.
27 Aug 2020
Stateometer: point of contraction
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
The impact of the pandemic drove all of Australia’s states into a sharp contraction in the June quarter.
28 Jul 2020
Female financial literacy, participation needed in crisis
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Women are being disproportionately impacted by COVID-19. It’s time for them to take real control of their finances.
21 Jul 2020
Dial a doctor: pandemic pressures healthcare system
Prof Anthony Scott | Health & Healthcare theme lead, The Melbourne Institute
Australia’s healthcare system may not have been overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases as initially expected but the economic impacts have not gone unnoticed.
15 Jul 2020
Defence future spend accelerates over decade
Cherelle Murphy & Bansi Madhavani | Senior Economist & Economist, ANZ
Australia’s Defence Force will see a dramatic increase in spending over the next decade. And responding to the pandemic is on the to-do list.
06 Jul 2020
What if banks broke the buck?
James Culham | Executive Director, Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
Is MMT the post-COVID normal for monetary policy or an inflation trap?
11 Jun 2020
Abstract climate change ends with pandemic
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
COVID-19 has forced the world to pause and consider what aspects of “normal” need to return once the crisis passes if another existential crisis is to be averted.
05 Jun 2020
Indebted to the future
James Culham | Executive Director, Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
Is government debt a burden for future generations or merely a debt we owe ourselves? Could it even represent net wealth?
21 May 2020
Stateometer: the first shock waves
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
The beginnings of the COVID-19 economic shock became apparent in the states and territories’ trade channels.
18 May 2020
Economic dignity: a way forward
Dr Jeremiah Brown | ANZ Tony Nicholson Research Fellow
All Australians must support the most vulnerable members of society with dignity and respect. It’s in all our interests.
14 May 2020
Pandemic lays housing recovery low
Felicity Emmett & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists, ANZ
Australia’s housing market will be impacted on many fronts because of COVID-19. And the effects will be seen both immediately and longer-term.
08 May 2020
Yield curve control: back to the future
James Culham | Executive Director, Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
Governments and central banks can find much to learn from previous crises in coping with the COVID-19 pandemic.
22 Apr 2020
Dirty money goes digital
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
People are turning to contactless payments to avoid touching cash or payments terminals. This trend might exist in a post-COVID-19 world.
20 Apr 2020
Women at the frontline (and the rear) of COVID-19
Cherelle Murphy & Bansi Madhavani | Senior Economist & Economist, ANZ
Women are being left behind in key decisions for COVID-19 even though they are at the frontline of the economic shock.
13 Mar 2020
Quantifying quantitative easing
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
The impact of COVID-19 suggests the hurdle for quantitative easing in Australia might be cleared sooner than first thought.
06 Mar 2020
Uncertainty in an era of disrupted trade
Khalil Hegarty, Kristen Bondietti & Jon Berry | Directors, ITS Global
The US-China trade war and coronavirus have disrupted trade more than any other events in recent history. Can businesses continue to prosper?
05 Mar 2020
IWD2020: equal economic ecosystems
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
If economic policy is designed with men in mind, no wonder women feel left behind.
04 Mar 2020
A viral tsunami
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
As the world reacts to - and prepares against - a global pandemic, what do we know of the lifecycles of previous disasters?
20 Feb 2020
Stateometer: forecast downgrades worst for south east
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
A deterioration in labour markets has pulled down economies in the December quarter.
14 Feb 2020
NZ agri braces for coronavirus contagion
Susan Kilsby & Sharon Zollner | NZ Agriculture Economist and NZ Chief Economist at ANZ
New Zealand’s agriculture industry is watching the flow-on effects of the coronavirus closely as produce begins to pile-up.
12 Feb 2020
IN CHARTS: Aus housing stability
Felicity Emmett & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists, ANZ
Have the last few months of low interest rates left a lasting impact on Aus housing affordability and stability?
10 Feb 2020
Australian economy suffers virus symptoms
Felicity Emmett & David Plank | Senior Economist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
Growing uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus will have a large impact on near-term GDP growth in Australia.
06 Feb 2020
Coronavirus, green swans and unknown unknowns
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The global economy is still recovering from fragilities of the last decade. Now coronavirus threatens to hit growth anew.
29 Jan 2020
China’s fortune in the Year of the Rat
Raymond Yeung, Betty Wang & Zhaopeng Xing | Chief Economist, Greater China, Senior China Economist, Greater China, and China Markets Economist at ANZ
2020 marks the start of a new zodiac and a new decade. How will China fare in the Year of the Rat?
28 Jan 2020
Capitalism vs Socialism: mismatch or missed match?
James Culham | Executive Director, Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
Is the ongoing debate between capitalism and socialism aiming at the right target?
23 Jan 2020
NZ outlook: 20/20 vision
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
New Zealand’s growth in 2020 is likely to be modest but the economic fates are not entirely in Kiwi hands.
22 Jan 2020
The roads go without saying…
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
What has capitalism done for us? A lot more than socialism…
21 Jan 2020
Commodities in 2020: changing winds
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
Increased focus on environmental issues will have a noticeable impact on commodity markets in 2020.
16 Jan 2020
Mega transport underpins pipeline
Catherine Birch | Senior Economist, ANZ
Will the major projects pipeline be ramped up across New South Wales after a lag in 2020?
15 Jan 2020
Confidence and wellbeing: on different paths
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
As consumer confidence continues to get weaker consumers may become more resilient, according to new data.
13 Jan 2020
Australian bushfires: impacting GDP
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
The size, intensity and duration of the Australian bushfires mean they will almost certainly have a larger economic impact than past fires.
05 Dec 2019
Aus Christmas retail: bah humbug
Adelaide Timbrell & David Plank | Economist & Head of Aus Economics, ANZ
A weak economy and ongoing discounting periods are putting a dampener on the Christmas spirit in retail.
25 Nov 2019
Aus healthcare: in the waiting room
Glen Fisher | Associate Director for Health, ANZ
Australia’s healthcare sector is expanding to meet demand driving investment opportunities in healthcare real estate assets.
20 Nov 2019
Stateometer: on the right track
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
The ANZ Stateometer showed economies turned in many of Australia's states and territories in the September quarter, marking a positive – albeit mild – change.
15 Nov 2019
Monetary policy: reaching the bottom of the barrel
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
As monetary policy’s impact on credit diminishes, secular stagnation is beginning to take hold.
14 Nov 2019
Interest rates: through the looking-glass
James Culham | Executive Director, Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
As interest rates tend towards zero, will central banks be forced to turn to unconventional monetary policies?
04 Nov 2019
Changing the mining mix
Daniel Hynes, Catherine Birch & Jasmine Kaur | Senior Commodities Strategist & Senior Economists, ANZ
Australia’s mining industry has faced momentous changes over the last decade. Will a shift to renewable technologies help drive demand?
28 Oct 2019
Libra in China: what’s in the stars?
Raymond Yeung and team | Chief Economist, Greater China & economics team, ANZ
Facebook’s digital currency holds as founder Mark Zuckerberg faces Congress. However, one party is yet to show its hand.
24 Oct 2019
Aus housing: on the rebound
Felicity Emmett & Adelaide Timbrell | Senior Economists, ANZ
The turn in the housing market has been remarkable with the rebound in prices considerably stronger than expected.
21 Oct 2019
New Zealand: land of the long white, but darkening, cloud
Miles Workman | Senior NZ Economist, ANZ
The outlook for the Kiwi economy is for growth to slow a little further, but remain on course overall.
18 Oct 2019
Non-residential building capex: offices, hotels hold the fort
Catherine Birch | Senior Economist, ANZ
Major project investment in the non-residential building sector is historically high after a surge in 2018-19.
17 Oct 2019
US-China trade: a temporary truce
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
An agreement may be in sight in the long-running US-China trade war. But history warns us of mirages.
10 Oct 2019
Brexit: lambs to the slaughter
Susan Kilsby & Sharon Zollner | NZ Agriculture Economist and NZ Chief Economist at ANZ
New Zealand’s lamb industry is watching closely as the UK tries to herd Brexit.
01 Oct 2019
Public infrastructure investment: choppy waters
Catherine Birch | Senior Economist, ANZ
Capital expenditure from public-backed major projects is expected to fall before the next wave of projects begins.
30 Sep 2019
Corn economics goes pop
James Culham | Executive Director, Institutional Portfolio Management, ANZ
As the Australian economy ponders the impact of zero - or negative - interest rates, can the answer be found in corn?
09 Sep 2019
Australia’s economy: boom or bust?
Alan Mitchell | Columnist, bluenotes
According to the headlines, Australia’s economy is despairing. But is it all as bad as it seems?
06 Sep 2019
Brexit: deal or no deal for Australia?
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Australia’s ability to trade with the UK in a post-Brexit environment may not be as easy as advertised.
04 Sep 2019
Interest factor zero
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
The idea unprecedented negative interest rates will spur the economy isn’t coming to fruition, so what are they doing?
20 Aug 2019
Stateometer: modest growth continues
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
As the resources states showed mild business sector improvement most other states continued to grow below trend as impacts from housing softness continue.
13 Aug 2019
Global trade: the war clouds darken
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Trade-offs look increasingly unlikely in the Trump-Xi trade war and economic rations are looking bleaker.
17 Jul 2019
Kiwis don’t yield to the curve
Sandeep Parekh | ANZ Foreign Exchange/Rates Strategist
Cause for concern or false alarm? The NZ yield curve frequently inverts - but lacks the recession-predicting ability of its US counterpart.
09 Jul 2019
The hellship Neptune and perverse incentives
Jason Murphy | Publisher, Thomas the Think Engine
Incentivising negative behaviour (or the absence of positive incentives) can lead to disastrous outcomes, says author Jason Murphy.
05 Jul 2019
Credit where due with property confidence
David Plank & Felicity Emmett | Head of Australian Economics & Senior Economist, ANZ
Confidence in the residential property market is beginning to bounce, according to new data.
04 Jul 2019
Fake friends: Trump and Xi
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The relationship between the US and China is still in murky water following the G20 Summit.
02 Jul 2019
Australian healthcare: time for a check-up
Cherelle Murphy & Bansi Madhavani | Senior Economist & Economist, ANZ
Although Australians are living longer, their overall health isn’t so great and that’s weighing down the healthcare industry.
27 Jun 2019
China’s war against aging
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Forget the trade war, China’s must negotiate its demographic challenges to ensure future growth.
04 Jun 2019
Tasmania: the southern state’s heading north
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Tasmanians are enjoying robust economic conditions but housing and employment remain a concern according to ANZ Research.
29 May 2019
Stateometer: one tortoise, many hares
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
It was a case of the tortoise and hares in the latest ANZ Stateometer. The slow and steady South Australia won the race.
27 May 2019
A game of truths in Asia
David Green | CEO Singapore and Head of South East Asia, India & Middle East, ANZ
Don’t believe everything you read, Asia may not be slowing as quickly as first thought.
22 May 2019
What is the China-US endgame?
Raymond Yeung & Betty Wang | Chief Economist Greater China & Senior China Economist, ANZ
Trade conflict between the US and China is inevitable, according to ANZ Research.
16 May 2019
LONGREAD: trade war? Gimme shelter
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The relationship between the US and China is reaching boiling point with outcomes which will impact many other nations, including Australia.
14 May 2019
Household budget pressures: it’s a long way to the shop
Adelaide Timbrell & David Plank | Economist & Head of Aus Economics, ANZ
Australian households are moving their spending away from retail to other goods and services, says ANZ Research.
13 May 2019
Aus housing: green shoots appearing
Adelaide Timbrell & Felicity Emmett | Economist & Senior Economist, ANZ
Are the sharpest declines of the Australian housing market downturn behind us?
08 May 2019
How to understand China’s economy
Zhaopeng Xing & Raymond Yeung | Markets Economist and Chief Economist, Greater China at ANZ
The debate surrounding whether China is over-reporting its GDP is starting to heat up again. Here’s how the numbers work.
24 Apr 2019
VIDEO: it’s a steep learning curve on yield
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Assessments of the US yield curve risk being too dogmatic, says ANZ Chief Economist.
05 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: Labor’s alternative
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
Some were disappointed with the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget, does this simply reflect the focus on tax cuts?
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
bluenotes presents comprehensive coverage of the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget.
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: back to black with an election to come
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
As expected, cuts to personal income taxes and big infrastructure spending dominated the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget.
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: reaching peak budget
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Structural changes occurring in Australia are starting to impact the budget more forcefully, particularly demographic changes.
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: the graphic truth
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
Tax, outlook, health, infrastructure, the key numbers of Federal Budget in pictures.
03 Apr 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: small business perks
Isaac Rankin | Managing Director Commercial and Private Banking, ANZ
Tax write-offs and funding for apprenticeships are some of the promises for SMEs from the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget.
01 Apr 2019
INFOGRAPHIC: recession. Do you know what it really means?
Melissa Currie | Creative Content Producer, bluenotes
Australia’s last recession was a quarter century ago. The economy is very different today but how will it weather the inevitable?
28 Mar 2019
FEDERAL BUDGET 2019: tax relief and congestion busting
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Personal income tax cuts and new infrastructure spending set to be announced in the 2019-20 Australian Federal Budget.
14 Mar 2019
US-North Korea negotiations: where now?
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Trump and Kim’s latest summit fizzled - is anyone truly surprised? But what does it mean?
08 Mar 2019
IWD2019: the benefits of difference
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Diversity is good for the economy (although diversity in economics is still lacking).
05 Mar 2019
Stateometer: softening momentum spreads through the east coast
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
Softening economic momentum suggests credit tightness is beginning to hit smaller states.
26 Feb 2019
Investors prepare for challenging year
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
Sharemarkets may have rebounded early but the market volatility of 2018 is expected to continue this year.
25 Feb 2019
The economics of elections
David Plank & Bansi Madhavani | Head of Australian Economics & Economist, ANZ
People often think the economy slows as elections get close - the reality is more complicated.
15 Feb 2019
US-China trade: finding the compromise
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
A US-China trade compromise appears to be bumping towards some sort of conclusion.
07 Feb 2019
NZ agri: up at the crack of dawn
Susan Kilsby & Sharon Zollner | NZ Agriculture Economist and NZ Chief Economist at ANZ
New Zealand’s primary agriculture sector is doing well at the moment, according to ANZ Research.
04 Feb 2019
Aus house prices: what else are they telling us?
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
There are deeper implications of the largest fall in Australian house prices since the GFC.
01 Feb 2019
China's service sector - composition, not size, matters
Raymond Yeung & Kanika Bhatnagar | Chief Economist, Greater China & Economist at ANZ
China’s service sector has room to expand but its what’s being served what matters most.
16 Jan 2019
Goat entrails and banks
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
What’s to come in 2019 for the banking and financial services sector?
15 Jan 2019
New year, new outlook
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
2019 is shaping up to be a less stressful year than 2018 for global markets, says ANZ Research.
11 Jan 2019
Viet Nam: a growing Tiger Cub
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
Viet Nam is forecast to be the fastest growing economy among its neighbours over the next five years.
08 Jan 2019
More than robotaxis: the tech revolution and productivity
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
We still don’t have an answer to a fundamental question: what will the tech revolution do to the nature of jobs?
14 Dec 2018
Spreading the gospel of B2R
Peter Thomas | State Director, Property – Business & Private Banking, ANZ
Innovative property models like B2R could change the market – if the word gets out.
29 Oct 2018
Australia's China exposure is overexposed
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Australia is exposed to China but not singularly exposed.
22 Oct 2018
SIBOS2018: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
Read our full coverage of the Sibos 2018 conference in Sydney.
16 Oct 2018
Defining equality: not simple. But necessary
Jo Masters & Bianca Hartge-Hazelman | Senior Economist, ANZ & Founder, Financy Women’s Index
The latest Financy Women’s Index Progress Target sets out clear, achievable goals for economic gender equality.
04 Oct 2018
The knock-on property effect in Singapore
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
Singapore’s move to cool property activity should help hold back growth in calendar 2018.
02 Oct 2018
NZ’s productivity problem
Tony Field | bluenotes contributor
NZ businesses are being urged to invest in innovation to boost their productivity.
05 Sep 2018
Is it too quiet in emerging Asia?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
The search is on for the appropriate trade-off between growth and stability in Asia.
23 Aug 2018
Stateometer: cooling down
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
The economy’s momentum slowed into Autumn and Winter this quarter, data shows.
15 Aug 2018
India & Australia: room to grow
Shashank Mendiratta & Khoon Goh | Economist & Head of Asia Research, ANZ
More needs to be done to boost investment flows and take advantage of the potential of the Australia–India trade relationship.
06 Aug 2018
Another winter of discontent in NZ?
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
Will falling business confidence derail near-term GDP growth? It depends...
03 Aug 2018
Own goals & the truth about China’s slowdown
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Is China facing a cyclical or structural slowdown? Here’s what the charts suggest.
02 Aug 2018
Round we go in the circular economy
Stan Krpan | CEO, Sustainability Victoria
Australia’s current economic system is predominantly linear – not ideal. But there are ways we can bring it around.
25 Jul 2018
Lessons from a two-speed property market
David Oudshoorn | State Director, Property – Business & Private Banking, ANZ
The split between expectations for residential and commercial property continues.
20 Jul 2018
Shake off any rate cut ideas in NZ
Philip Borkin | Senior Economist, ANZ
NZ’s latest CPI suggests no rate cuts are around the corner – and so does the Taylor Rule.
03 Jul 2018
The upside of Trump’s trade trials - yes, upside
Alan Mitchell | Columnist, bluenotes
Keep calm as Trump carries on: current uncertainty is a good reminder of the importance of supporting free trade.
29 Jun 2018
Listen up: what the yield curve has to say
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The state of the yield curve is beginning to dominate conversations about the market. Here’s what it means.
28 Jun 2018
Let’s not waste time on the why
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
As the spotlight falls on the US yield curve, ANZ Research looks at what this means for credit risk.
22 Jun 2018
Building a fix for Australia’s rental market
Ben Hurley | Freelance journalist
Build-to-rent accommodation could help market incentives in the rental industry.
20 Jun 2018
Growing pains in the health sector
Richard Grayson | Head of Health, Business and Private Banking, ANZ
The outlook is good for medical specialists but median hourly earnings are increasing slower than the benchmark.
12 Jun 2018
Is China the only light at the end of the tunnel?
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
With global growth at its peak, China’s liquidity policy looms as an increasingly important factor for the world.
01 Jun 2018
New world order: is China all consuming?
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The China challenge is becoming more complex. It's a challenge suffusing Australia’s latest foreign policy white paper.
31 May 2018
NZ’s super super problem
Miles Workman & Sharon Zollner | Economist & Chief Economist, ANZ NZ
Are we all just choosing to turn a blind eye on NZ’s unsustainable superannuation system?
23 May 2018
Japan: a rising or waning sun?
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
Growth in Japan has dried up. Is this the end of Abenomics?
23 May 2018
Stateometer: housing drags on key state
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
Growth in NSW decelerates and population stats point to house prices; Vic, SA and Qld accelerate.
22 May 2018
Is the trade war really over?
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
The China-US armistice is good news but the crux of the matter has yet to be addressed.
17 May 2018
NZ Budget18: no surprises
Miles Workman & Sharon Zollner | Economist & Chief Economist, ANZ NZ
Prudent pragmatism is the order of the day in New Zealand.
14 May 2018
BUDGET 2018: here’s to our health
Richard Grayson | Head of Health, Business and Private Banking, ANZ
Australia’s federal government has unveiled a suite of budget measures which should help ease the transition to an ageing population.
10 May 2018
The ten biggest Twitter themes of #Budget18
Shane White | Content Manager - Institutional, ANZ
We share a brief look at the biggest themes on Twitter from #Budget2018.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018, in pictures
Joanne Masters | Former Senior Economist, ANZ
We’ve broken down the budget into an easily digestible visual format.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018: five key takeaways for SMEs
Guy Mendelson | Portfolio Lead - Business Owners, ANZ
More support, opportunities and relief highlight the benefits for Australian small-business owners from the 2018 budget.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018, in tweets
Shane White | Content Manager - Institutional, ANZ
See what some of Australia’s most-respected commentators said on Twitter in the aftermath of #Budget2018.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018: does no harm
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Australia’s better-than-expected tax revenues haven’t failed to disappoint, ANZ’s Chief Economist says on video.
09 May 2018
BUDGET 2018: wealthy, healthy & prizes
Cherelle Murphy & Jack Chambers | Senior Economist & Market Economist, ANZ
This year’s budget has some for the household wallet, some for health and some for the government’s piggy bank.
08 May 2018
Australian budget 2018: full coverage
bluenotes contributors |
bluenotes presents comprehensive coverage of the 2018-19 Australian federal budget.
08 May 2018
NZ’s moo-t point on the environment
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
New Zealand faces many challenges to ensure they reach their emissions targets by 2050.
02 May 2018
Has Asia missed a growth trick?
Sanjay Mathur | Chief Economist Southeast Asia & India, ANZ
Could soft manufacturing data out of Asia herald something more significant?
30 Apr 2018
Budget 2018: lattes, fares and flexibility
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Expect a smaller underlying cash deficit for 2017-18 than previously projected.
20 Apr 2018
For China, devaluation is a bad idea
Raymond Yeung & Khoon Goh | Chief Economist Greater China & Head of Asia Research at ANZ
It’s not in China’s best interests to devalue the yuan as it would go against two key priorities of its own government.
23 Mar 2018
China poised for measured responses to US
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Expect retaliation from China in the event the US’ planned tariff positions go into effect.
22 Mar 2018
PODCAST: bricks and mortar have a future in retail – just smaller
Jo Masters | Senior Economist, ANZ
Growing overheads related to physical stores becoming a bigger issue for retail, retailer group boss says.
19 Mar 2018
Tariffs: for better or worse - usually worse
Alan Mitchell | Columnist, bluenotes
Donald Trump believes his tariffs will be good for the American economy but history shows otherwise.
19 Mar 2018
New world order: Turnbull - Trump’s man of steel
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
A weakening of the WTO’s authority has the potential to upset a delicate global trading balance amid a mercantilist China’s rise.
13 Mar 2018
LONGREAD: good vibes and a fresh focus at ASEAN
Greg Earl | Writer, editor and consultant
Australia is looking to shed its quarry or farm-based image at ASEAN as it prepares for a very different future.
09 Mar 2018
LONGREAD: can ASEAN’s opportunity equal China?
Anna Green | CEO Philippines, ANZ
The ASEAN opportunity provides learnings from the China experience for Australian businesses.
28 Feb 2018
NZ productivity: not too shabby (but improvement needed)
Philip Borkin | Senior Economist, ANZ
Sure, the figures looked bad but the latest productivity snapshot for New Zealand is a little more promising. More please.
23 Feb 2018
Event economics: faster, higher, stronger…
Jason Murphy | Publisher, Thomas the Think Engine
The Winter Games are wrapping up in Pyeongchang but the economic impact – whichever way it goes – will last for some time.
21 Feb 2018
Stateometer: national strength
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Differences faded across Australia’s states and territories in December quarter, reading shows.
08 Feb 2018
Good times fade away on markets
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
Crashes aside, don’t expect a repeat of the double-digit market returns of 2017.
18 Jan 2018
Is this as good as it gets for the economy?
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Let’s welcome the global recovery and take advantage of it - but the chances of further improvement are minor.
04 Dec 2017
Australia’s future in the unmeasurable economy
Alan Mitchell | Columnist, bluenotes
Labour productivity is in the doldrums and an uncomfortable future is lapping at our feet.
14 Nov 2017
Megatrends: the next 10 years vs last 50, Pt 2
Damien Klassen | Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth
The long-term trends which carried markets over the last 50 years are ending.
02 Nov 2017
RBA should hold the line on rates
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Inflation may give the RBA the cover it needs to hike next year.
25 Oct 2017
FTAs: myth posing as policy
Bill Carmichael, Alan Mitchell et al | Former chairman, Industries Assistance Commission & Former Economics Editor, AFR
The clarity of what is at issue in trade policy has been translated into the language of trade diplomacy.
23 Oct 2017
Megatrends: the next 10 years vs last 50, Pt 1
Damien Klassen | Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth
A look at the relentless demographic and structural undercurrents which will drive markets in the future.
20 Oct 2017
Navigating the gig economy
Dr Wesley McClendon | Global HR executive, thought leader and executive director, McClendon Research Group, Inc (MRG)
The war for talent isn’t over- the talented have just left the building.
10 Oct 2017
Why GDP and welfare are parting company
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Something is up with wage growth around the world – and that something could be technology.
25 Sep 2017
Political press releases: More than just words
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
New Zealand – not unexpectedly – has a hung parliament after the weekend election. What can the parties’ own words tells about how a coalition may form?
21 Sep 2017
Playing the long game on China
Alan Mitchell | Columnist, bluenotes
China is a long-term project for Australian investment but acting now to strengthen investment policy is paramount.
19 Sep 2017
The outlook for soft commodities
Mark Bennett | Head of Aus Agribusiness, ANZ
Spring is here and all eyes turn to forecasts for wheat, beef, dairy and more.
19 Sep 2017
Bitter butter battle brewing in NZ?
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
High European prices due to falling product and low inventories are affecting the domestic market.
18 Sep 2017
Energy security needs national leadership
Mark Stone | Chief Executive at the Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Rising power costs are felt by everyone – but the impact they have on small businesses can be devastating.
18 Sep 2017
Growth backers: financing Asia’s rapid expansion
Carl Roberts | Head of ANZ Loan Syndications for South & Southeast Asia.
An infrastructure investment gap is opening up in Asia challenges regarding the availability and pricing of capital are increasing.
14 Sep 2017
Are the bulls finally running out of energy?
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
It’s been 10 years since the GFC and the strength in markets endures. But for how long?
12 Sep 2017
Singapore: New Zealand’s open gateway to ASEAN
David Green | CEO Singapore and Head of South East Asia, India & Middle East, ANZ
New Zealand and Singapore have strong economic ties – but their joint ties to the region are vastly greater.
12 Sep 2017
Is Tasmania fit for purpose?
Chris Sparks | Regional Executive, Regional Business Banking Tasmania, ANZ
Ongoing investment required to stabilise and improve Australia’s healthcare system.
08 Sep 2017
Trump and an ill-defined world
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
For many, the American president espouses views at best unformed – but the system has checks.
04 Sep 2017
NZ votes: party leaders outline their vision to bluenotes
Julia de Blaauw | BlueNotes contributing editor
We speak to the leaders of the major NZ parties ahead of the upcoming vote.
23 Aug 2017
Stateometer: keep on humming
Cherelle Murphy & Thomas Hounslow | Senior economist, ANZ & bluenotes data editor
Australia’s fortunes improve as housing construction keeps economies humming while labour markets and trade improve nationwide.
16 Aug 2017
INTERACTIVE: Asia? Not yet
Thomas Hounslow | bluenotes contributor
Study finds biggest Australian companies are not yet properly equipped to succeed in Asia.
14 Aug 2017
RBNZ: when in doubt, do nowt
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
The NZ Reserve Bank’s current estimate of the output gap is about zero – buts its range is pretty wide.
14 Aug 2017
Trump the great trade disrupter
Tim Harcourt | Author, The Airport Economist
Australian exporters have serious concerns about the disruptive trade policies from the US.
11 Aug 2017
From the clouds: Viet Nam’s aviation boom
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
The Vietnamese aviation sector is unrecognisable from 10 years ago and growth is only getting started.
10 Aug 2017
Wages, tech and the other half of the chessboard
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
We need to face the possibility tech has changed the fundamentals of growth.
09 Aug 2017
PODCAST: RBA’s Bullock on cash, payments & policy
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
RBA assistant governor chats to bluenotes about the bank’s latest survey and its implication for the payments sector.
07 Aug 2017
Australian manufacturing: room to grow
Phil Crouch | State Head Victoria and Tasmania, Regional Business Banking at ANZ
Industry must remain focused on export opportunities, high-quality products and international competitiveness.
03 Aug 2017
Is China’s rise shadowing ASEAN cheer?
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
New world order: policymakers at the ASEAN meet in Manila should pay close attention to China’s words and actions.
01 Aug 2017
The surprising truth about spending patterns
Jo Masters | Senior Economist, ANZ
Retailers are doing it tough but consumption in Australia is not what it seems.
01 Aug 2017
Japan: emerging from the lost decades?
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
Evidence suggests pervasive deflation has ended in Japan and the country is moving into a new normal.
01 Aug 2017
Tax and what Australia can learn from Ireland
John Ryan | Senior Consultant, AIC
Many Australians have an Irish background but there could also be lessons from the Emerald Isle for the Australian economy.
19 Jul 2017
NZ to stay on song
Cameron Bagrie | Chief Economist, New Zealand ANZ
Economic momentum in NZ is picking up but expect it to stay modest amid capacity restraints.
18 Jul 2017
The danger of jumping the recovery gun
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Growth is somewhat above trend in many economies, but where is the pricing power?
18 Jul 2017
China signals strong hand at NFWC
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Asian giant plans to intensify financial oversight; looks to curb debt control on SoEs.
14 Jul 2017
Paradise, the Samoan way
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
bluenotes speaks to Samoan PM Susuga Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi about the country’s future.
06 Jul 2017
Lessons learned from Asian crisis still at play
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
Twenty years on from the Asian Financial Crisis the saga still leaves scars.
04 Jul 2017
Exciting times for currencies ahead
Daniel Been | Head of FX strategy at ANZ
For currencies, there’s a steamroller coming – in the shape of liquidity.
04 Jul 2017
New world order: days of crises past
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
In an environment unusually fraught for all sorts of reasons the G20 is under unique scrutiny.
27 Jun 2017
Japan & the rise of the machines
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
In Japan, it’s unclear how the labour market’s path to productivity will play out.
26 Jun 2017
Five reasons a demographic time bomb is not looming
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
You can’t predict the future reading demographics alone, in a new report ANZ Research look into whether the ageing global population is sign of an alarming old age dependency ratio.
26 Jun 2017
Finkel: from recommendation to reality?
Sharon Simon | Head of R&A, Utilities & Infrastructure, ANZ
The Finkel Review highlights the need for clarity and certainty in Australia’s electricity market.
23 Jun 2017
Public sector announcement: we’re growing
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
Underlying public demand is offsetting some of the weakness from Australia’s slowing mining investment.
22 Jun 2017
Positive signs for China’s onshore financial market
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
Positive signs for China’s onshore financial market should incentivise Chinese regulators to further improve its regulatory transparency and oversight.
13 Jun 2017
Making hay while China shines: FDI in Australia
Mark Whelan | Group Executive Institutional, ANZ
Chinese investment in Australia is not an opportunity which can be taken for granted.
31 May 2017
China’s not the worry – but Australia is
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Don’t get fixated on China. Australia’s issues are more home grown.
29 May 2017
Belt & Road, US & certainty key for RMB
Daniel Everett | Global Head RMB Strategy & Execution, ANZ
We run through the key themes to emerge from the RMB Global Cities Dialogue event.
24 May 2017
The grass is greener across the ditch
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
In Australia pessimism about the outlook prevails. It’s a different story in NZ. Why?
19 May 2017
Moving on from China in Latin America
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
Like Australia, South America is trying to deal with China's economic slowdown – and it’s an Australian opportunity.
11 May 2017
Budget2017: certainty for SMEs
Gabrielle Mitchell | bluenotes contributor
Kate Gibson speaks on video about the impact of the federal budget on small businesses.
10 May 2017
Budget2017: carrots, sticks and steel
David Plank | Head of Australian Economics at ANZ
The Australian Commonwealth Budget maintains a projected return to surplus in 2020-21. This infographic spells out the details.
10 May 2017
VIDEO: the key to Budget2017
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
The Australian Government has attempted an ambitious budget tonight and should be welcomed.
10 May 2017
Budget2017: growth ambition
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
The federal budget tries to balance spending with a creative search for revenue.
10 May 2017
Australian Commonwealth Budget 2017-18
bluenotes contributors |
Australia's Commonwealth Budget has been unveiled, with a focus on security, fairness and opportunity.
04 May 2017
China’s services transformation
Raymond Yeung, Kaushik Baidya & Kanika Bhatnagar | Chief Economist, Greater China, Economist & Junior economist at ANZ
China’s transformation into a services-led economy continues. In the first quarter of 2017 China reported stronger-than-expected headline gross domestic product data of 6.9 per cent.
03 May 2017
The not-so-simple housing story
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
In her excellent and challenging book Happiness for All, Carol Graham uses the analogy of being stuck in traffic, with the lane next to you moving and yours not.
03 May 2017
Building a better future for Aus manufacturing
Christine Linden | General Manager, Regional Business Banking, ANZ Australia
Australia’s modern manufacturing sector carries with it an international reputation for quality and innovation.
02 May 2017
Aus budget 2017: what to expect
Cherelle Murphy | Senior Economist, ANZ
May’s Australian federal budget is being cast as one which will boost infrastructure spending and address ‘fairness’ including through housing affordability and university fee arrangements.
26 Apr 2017
Vanuatu’s rocky road to prosperity
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
From one of Port Vila’s ritziest streets, the address of consulates, local rich-listers and senior multi-national executives, the views out over the stunning blue Erakor Lagoon are spectacular. But the road to get to these residences is spectacular for all the wrong reasons: its potholes are so huge, ubiquitous and unavoidable anything less than a 4WD would be foolhardy.
24 Apr 2017
LONGREAD: overview of the Japanese pension fund market
Brett Cooper | Senior Trade Commissioner, Austrade
For more than half a century Japan has maintained a reputation as one of the world’s leading exporters of the highest quality manufactured products. But it also maintains a strong competitive advantage in another sector: capital.
21 Apr 2017
UNDERBELLY
Rod Clement | Walkley Award-winning cartoonist
Award-winning Illustrator Rod Clement shares his uniquely quirky take on the corporate world. This week: the many options of the central banker
18 Apr 2017
China’s grey market challenge
Warwick Smith | Chairman, Australia China Council & director, ANZ China
China is not alone in Asia in facing the challenges of an ageing society. Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand face similar issues. Indeed some of these countries are ageing faster.
13 Apr 2017
Under the waterline between China and Japan
Mark Skulley & Jim Skulley | Freelance journalist & Honours student in international relations at La Trobe University
One of Japan's foremost China watchers, Seiichiro Takagi, tries to look over the horizon when it comes to the South China Sea.
12 Apr 2017
It’s not all about millennials: consumers are ageing
Gina Westbrook | Director Strategy Briefings, Euromonitor
There’s never been a better time to be old – or to take advantage of the growing mature-consumer market. Life expectancy is rising around the world, having a major effect on consumer behaviour and the way business approach the market.
07 Apr 2017
PODCAST: Cross-border insolvency, a complicated beast
Leon Gettler | Veteran and highly regarded management journalist
Insolvency laws are different in every country and a lot of Asian businesses use offshore structures. Over the last decade, there have been moves to address growing complexity with a number of Asian countries updating their insolvency laws.
07 Apr 2017
Rising infrastructure to pick up mining’s slack
Daniel Gradwell & David Plank | Economist & Head of Australian Economics, ANZ
The decline in Australia’s mining-related investment has been well documented in recent years. There are still declines to come, but there’s good news: the drag on the economy from mining is steadily easing and other sectors are picking up the slack.
06 Apr 2017
Is China’s impossible miracle possible?
Jason Qi | Director in Client Insights and Solutions at ANZ
According to the old wisdom, 2017, the Year of the Rooster on the Chinese horoscope, suggests we can expect to see miracles emerge from seemingly impossible situations.
03 Apr 2017
How India is bouncing (cash)back
Sanjeev Bajaj | CEO ANZ India
Demonetisation has been the buzzword of India since the bulk of the country’s cash was removed from the economy at short notice. For many it was a shock to the system, with their economic lives grinding to a halt as the cash shortage disrupted their ability to pay, and also be paid.
03 Apr 2017
Challenges for Chinese tourism growth should prove temporary in NZ
Philip Borkin & Sharon Zollner | Senior economist & Associate Director, ANZ NZ
New Zealand tourism is on a tear with no sign of slowing, driven by ever-higher numbers of Chinese tourists, right? Actually, not quite.
03 Apr 2017
Oil price forecasts up in the air
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
To hedge oil or not to hedge oil is the big question. Rising volatility accentuated by uncertainty on whether there will be an oversupply or shortage of oil is causing many a dilemma to companies for whom oil is a significant input cost.
31 Mar 2017
NZ: maturing like a fine wine
Cameron Bagrie & NZ Research team | Economists, ANZ
New Zealand has reached a mature stage in the economic cycle. Historically, sharp slowdowns have followed such periods - but ANZ research does not believe the cycle is about to roll over and expire.
30 Mar 2017
VIDEO: three big themes for capital markets in 2017
Darren Thomson | bluenotes contributor
A demand for increased duration, diversification and the rise of Asian liquidity are the biggest factors facing Australia’s capital markets sector as we head into the middle of 2017, according to the co-heads of capital markets at ANZ.
29 Mar 2017
Inflation, not employment, now guides RBA on rates
David Plank & Giulia Lavinia Specchia | Head of Australian Economics & Economist, ANZ
A demand for increased duration, diversification and the rise of Asian liquidity are the biggest factors facing Australia’s capital markets sector as we head into the middle of 2017, according to the co-heads of capital markets at ANZ.
28 Mar 2017
Regional Aus: ready for the Asian trade horizon
Christine Linden | General Manager, Regional Business Banking, ANZ Australia
Agriculture has long been a cornerstone of Australia’s economy. As the sector again surges - or “saves our economic bacon” - after 28 per cent growth in 2016 and high expectations for 2017, we’re again reminded of its key place in our economic mix.
27 Mar 2017
Taxing times for Australia, Indonesia and the world
Mark Lawson | Retired senior journalist
The challenge of companies and individuals shuffling income and assets between jurisdictions - a major issue in the ASEAN region - has come to the fore in both Australia and Indonesia.
23 Mar 2017
A tour of Tasmania’s future
Chris Sparks | Regional Executive, Regional Business Banking Tasmania, ANZ
With all the excitement accompanying Hobart’s unveiling of MONA back in 2012, not even the most optimistic among us could’ve foreseen how transformational a privately owned modern art museum would be for the tourism fortunes of the capital or for Tasmania as a whole.
21 Mar 2017
ON THE COUCH: Singapore senior minister Goh on our crises of uncertainty
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
Goh Chok Tong has had a long, distinguished career in politics and public policy in Asia, including a crucial period as the Prime Minister of Singapore, succeeding founding PM Lee Kuan Yew. Now, as the global trading landscape faces its biggest shakeup in decades, what does he expect will happen next?
20 Mar 2017
Economics: too dismal for women?
Luci Ellis | Assistant Governor (Economic), RBA
Unfortunately both in general and for female students, economics is not exactly popular in Australia.
16 Mar 2017
Thailand’s new economy: poised for take-off but is the runway ready?
Greg Earl | Writer, editor and consultant
The sign at the entrance to Thailand’s U-Tapao airport declares grandly (and perhaps even more hopefully): One Airport, Two Missions.
16 Mar 2017
Fed hike yesterday’s news, now for tomorrow
Tom Kenny | Senior International Economist, ANZ
The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates as expected but all eyes are on the future as a slightly disappointed market reflects on what happens next.
14 Mar 2017
Does the future of trade look like RCEP?
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
Since the Trans-Pacific Partnership's demise was first promised by US President Donald Trump in 2016, policymakers and businesses across the Asia-Pacific have been looking more seriously to the China-led Regional Cooperative Economic Partnership - especially given China’s refusal to join a rejigged US-free TPP.
14 Mar 2017
Trade machinations in Chile
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The world’s 45th largest economy, Chile is hardly the epicenter of the world trading system. But this week the South American country hosts an event which may prove to be of unusual significance for the global trading system, and for the countries of the Indo-Pacific in particular, including Australia.
07 Mar 2017
China confirms structural reforms, growth target
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China has outlined plans to strengthen its structural reforms efforts, including capacity reduction, property destocking and deleveraging, as well as confirming expectations of a slight downgrade to growth and money supply targets.
02 Mar 2017
Market outlook 2017: better but not great
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The post-financial crisis environment has been described by a number of start-stop recoveries – signs of recovery emerge, markets respond, but then something short-circuits the improvement. In our view, however, there is little on the economic horizon to short-circuit the current recovery.
27 Feb 2017
Stopping the bubble: what to watch at China’s NPC
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
The Chinese government is likely to embrace an attitude of risk-management across many of its policies in 2017. This approach will come into sharp focus at China's National People’s Congress in March.
23 Feb 2017
Five key market themes to look out for in 2017
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
The headwinds of 2016 are behind us. As we look ahead, financial conditions and monetary policy all look supportive of growth but global political upheaval, trade uncertainty and a US economy already long in the tooth remain concerns.
21 Feb 2017
Losing AAA – what would it mean for bank interest rates?
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
No government wants the ignominy of a credit rating downgrade but for Australia, which sits at the top of the pile with a AAA rating from the major credit rating agencies, the pain for the government of the day would be acute.
16 Feb 2017
No, China will not save iron ore
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
Positive sentiment has crept back into iron ore markets amid weaker-than-expected export data from Australia and expectations of Chinese restocking. Our advice is not to get too excited - we still believe China will destock in the post-Lunar New Year period as proposed steel capacity cuts are delayed.
14 Feb 2017
Confronting China’s policy trilemma
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
The fall in China’s forex reserves below the $US3 trillion mark in January – its lowest level in six years - in itself is not an issue for the Asian giant. China still has adequate levels of reserves.
14 Feb 2017
Changing streams on the Mekong River
Luke Hunt | Journalist & Asian correspondent
The use of the Mekong River is changing rapidly. Aquaculture and fish farming are now among the high growth industries, offering employment and better standards of living, but at the expense of traditional fishermen who have plied these waters for centuries.
09 Feb 2017
Australia’s awkward post-TPP choice
Greg Earl | Ex-Japan Correspondent & Pacific Editor, AFR & Former Member of the Australia Japan Foundation board
Donald Trump’s abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal has left his Australian allies with an awkward choice.
06 Feb 2017
Is AAA a curse for the Australian economy?
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
The future of Australia’s AAA credit rating might be giving Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his government a few sleepless nights but there is an argument which says losing the grade may be just what Australia needs to move out of its economic humdrum.
03 Feb 2017
Trade is dead; long live trade
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
The United States has made its decision and as a result, it looks like the end of the road for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
31 Jan 2017
Asia game has changed but ANZ still a player: Elliott
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
ANZ remains committed to the Asian region, CEO Shayne Elliott says, but changes to the economic and regulatory environment means the bank has had to adjust its strategy – not abandon it.
30 Jan 2017
Asia still key to global economic growth
Mark Whelan | Group Executive Institutional, ANZ
Global trade is vital to global economic growth and ultimately vital for Australian jobs. Therefore it’s heartening to hear the region’s leaders remain vocal in their support of a transparent and open trading system – despite US President Donald Trump’s rejection of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).
24 Jan 2017
The regional Japan growth paradox
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
Speaking to the Australia and New Zealand Chamber of Commerce in Japan last week, ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott quipped it was rare to speak at a multinational event where all the audience understood a rugby reference.
24 Jan 2017
What the end of the TPP means (for Australia and the world)
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
If Australian policymakers had any doubt a Donald Trump presidency in the US would represent a disruption to business-as-usual in the White House that will have been dispelled by one of his first executive acts.
23 Jan 2017
One belt, one road and one massive China opportunity
Richard Holdcroft | Freelance journalist
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, sometimes referred to as the 21st-century Marshall Plan, is far grander in its scope and ambition than the post-World War II US aid initiative.
13 Jan 2017
NZ Truckometer touches brakes; may indicate lane change for economy
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
The latest New Zealand Truckometer suggests current growth momentum in the country is very strong but the pace may be set to slow over the next six months.
13 Jan 2017
Globalisation in the rear-view mirror in 2017
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
To understand the logic of US President-elect Donald Trump’s sharp breaks with Republican orthodoxy—threats of tariffs on US companies moving jobs abroad, treating the decades-long One China policy as a bargaining chip—you need to remember how technology enabled a very specific passion for the past to become kingmaker in US politics.
20 Dec 2016
Who matters more to Australia, the US or China?
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
The US is Australia’s top investor, not China. What impact will that have on the Australian economy in January when Donald Trump becomes President? BlueNotes looks at US investment in Australia and how this fits into the Asian Century.
16 Dec 2016
Outlook: economies, currencies and commodities in 2017
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
A recent drop into negative growth in Australia will not be enough to keep the economy from growing above trend in 2017, while growth in the Asia Pacific regions will be limited by developments in the US and China.
16 Dec 2016
Maserati, lobster and a window into China
Simone Stella | bluenotes contributor
What do a Maserati and a lobster have in common? They’re often red? Luxurious? Pricey?
12 Dec 2016
Fiji: the Pacific hub in the Asia Pacific
Mark Skulley | Freelance journalist
Nowadays, the concept of the ‘Asia-Pacific’ is on the lips of everybody in officialdom.
06 Dec 2016
Trump’s age of uncertainty
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Donald Trump did not take long to unsettle relations with China and raise questions about a Trump administration’s commitment to a ‘one-China’ policy, a cornerstone of American diplomacy since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger.
30 Nov 2016
A visit to China: beyond excess credit
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Escalating RMB volatility, mismanaged equity market reforms causing gyrations in local and global asset prices - 2016 began with Chinese governance squarely in the spotlight.
28 Nov 2016
China won’t wait for Trump
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
Donald Trump has repeated his pledge to abandon America’s commitment to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement on “day one’’ of his presidency.
25 Nov 2016
India: it’s time to look west
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
We often hear India is a country of great potential. But what is really being said is India has the resources, people and raw materials for success – if only it could get its act together. Finally that appears to be happening.
22 Nov 2016
Darwin and the saltwater people
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
Darwin’s strategic location as a trading port is no secret to the Larrakia people, the original custodians of the land and waters around the Northern Territory capital.
21 Nov 2016
The emerging Trump world order
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
The Chinese word for crisis embraces the characters signifying danger and opportunity. Any reasonable consideration of a Donald Trump presidency must anticipate a period of considerable uncertainty well into 2017.
18 Nov 2016
NZ, Aus part ways on employment
Sharon Zollner | Chief Economist New Zealand, ANZ
If you’re waiting for net migration in New Zealand to fall sharply you may be waiting a while.
15 Nov 2016
LONGREAD: the Rising Sun rising again in Australia
Greg Earl | Ex-Japan Correspondent & Pacific Editor, AFR & Former Member of the Australia Japan Foundation board
Shigetoshi Nagasawa thought he was nearing the end of a faltering 10-year experiment in making Japan’s favourite comfort food in Australia when he took an accidental stroll around a supermarket.
15 Nov 2016
Collateral damage: the emerging market growth story under threat
Andrew Cornell | Managing Editor, bluenotes
The Donald Trump presidency remains an unknown quantity. As Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Guy Debelle told a conference last week, the only certainty is uncertainty and if you’re going to write volatility insurance charge a high price for it.
11 Nov 2016
You can’t predict the weather – or politics
Richard Yetsenga | Chief Economist, ANZ
Brexit. An independent dependent Australian senate. Trump. The predictions were all wrong. Why? There is much discussion of growing inequality but an underlying force is social media. By giving voice to those previously without one, social media may have forced fundamental change.
09 Nov 2016
yetsenga-trump-triumph-no-brexit
Phoebe O'Sullivan | BlueNotes contributing editor
Despite a global market slump following Donald Trump’s triumph in the US presidential race, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says this will not necessarily be the negative event many are expecting even though it reigned in the prospects of the Fed raising rates in December.
08 Nov 2016
Aussie businesses set to gain $138 billion if they take up Asia opportunity
Fred Ohlsson | Group Executive, ANZ Australia
In 1900, Australia exported goods valued at £40 million to our primary trading partner the United Kingdom. The total trade with the UK was more than five times the total trade with Australia's second-largest trading partner, the USA – a strong reflection of Australia’s close historical association with the British Empire.
08 Nov 2016
How far we’ve come: 30 years of change in NZ
Sophie Speer | BlueNotes contributing editor
In just three decades, the economic landscape in New Zealand has changed irrevocably. This infographic spells out the biggest shifts.
04 Nov 2016
The Mekong: who’s training who? And who’s supplying who?
Eugenia Victorino & Weiwen Ng | Economists, ANZ
In the Mekong there’s a pronounced disparity between the size and relative development stage of each of the region’s economies - apparent to anyone who has spent time doing business there.
30 Oct 2016
One child, two children - what will it mean for China (and cows)
Li-Gang Liu | Former Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
China's decision to relax its one child policy will inevitably have an impact on China's population and GDP growth. According to ANZ analysis, China will become the largest economy and the second largest consumer market in 2020.
30 Oct 2016
ANZ refocuses Asia operations; sells retail, wealth arms; concentration on institutional
Paul Edwards | Manager Operations Strategy, ANZ
ANZ will concentrate its resources on institutional banking in Asia with the sale of a portfolio of retail and wealth management assets to Singapore-based DBS.
30 Oct 2016
Asia retail, wealth sale positive for institutional business: Whelan
Paul Edwards | Manager Operations Strategy, ANZ
The sale of five wealth and retail business by ANZ in Asia will allow greater focus on the institutional business in the region, according to ANZ’s head of institutional banking Mark Whelan.
28 Oct 2016
India’s daunting scope for growth
Jonty Ephron | Chief Risk Officer India, ANZ
India’s importance as an emerging market has been well known for almost two decades: it was one of the original BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India, China - economies championed by Goldman Sachs in the early 2000s.
25 Oct 2016
The uncharted Mekong is ripe for picking
Anna Green | CEO Philippines, ANZ
With global trade growth slowing and global economic growth floundering in 2016, smart business continues to look for opportunities to grow in regions bucking this negative trend. The Greater Mekong Subregion (consisting of Southern China, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia) presents such an opportunity.
21 Oct 2016
Australia in Japan: a tale of two teams
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
Observing the story of Australian business in Japan in recent times is a little like watching two different Australian sports teams.
12 Oct 2016
ASEAN trade path clear: ministers
Anna Green | CEO Philippines, ANZ
As the world gathered in Laos in September for the ASEAN business summit, an increased interest in developing stronger, more tangible relationships with ASEAN bloc countries among senior global leaders became clear.
11 Oct 2016
LONGREAD: the second wave of Japanese investment in Australia
Ian Williams | Partner, Herbert Smith Freehills
Australia and Japan share an enduring history of business collaboration that has created significant value for both economies.
10 Oct 2016
China’s credit risk problem
Kieran Davies | Former Economist, ANZ
As China’s economy transitions towards a focus on consumption, credit risk remains a problem – and one that is only getting bigger.
07 Oct 2016
LONGREAD: the Asian super cycle is here
Graham White | Author
For nervous investors or for those seeking work or welfare in the stumbling economies of the West, it may come as a surprise to learn we are living through a golden age of economic advancement.
07 Oct 2016
The long, long – long – commute
Chris Kelly | Award winning artist
We spend a lot of time on the way to work – by foot, by public transport or stuck in traffic. But exactly how much time?
05 Oct 2016
The next recession is inevitable
Rob Molyneux | Group General Manager Risk Metrics & Infrastructure, ANZ
Glenn Stevens retired from the Reserve bank of Australia in September, warning the country risks lulling itself into a false sense of security by constantly retelling the “25-years-without-a-recession” narrative.
05 Oct 2016
The four key consumer trends for 2017
Lisa Holmes | Senior Survey Analyst, Euromonitor International
In 2017 the most successful business will be the ones which capitalise on developing consumer trends.
04 Oct 2016
Japan’s workplace culture is at a crossroads
Elizabeth Masamune | Managing Director of @Asia Associates Japan
In a society where being part of a group has traditionally mattered above all else, Japanese people are coming to demand more choices about the way they live their lives. The needs of the individual and the pursuit of personal happiness have come to matter more.
04 Oct 2016
Hong Kong vs Singapore: which is the best regional centre?
Emma Davine & Kunal Dey | Head of Client Solutions Transaction Banking & Head of Global Subsideries, ANZ
Many multinational corporations look to set up their regional treasuries – the nerve centre of where they manage their finances – in one of Asia’s financial centres. But which one best suits the needs of business?
21 Sep 2016
LONGREAD: Is Japan a boiling frog?
Dr David Morgan | Managing Director, JC Flowers & co
Doubtless the anecdote of the boiling frog is familiar: if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive danger and will be cooked to death.
19 Sep 2016
LONGREAD: silver linings over the Swan
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
Western Australia has been hit with a sharp economic downturn as the Australian economy adjusts to the transition away from the mining boom. The top-ranked state economy in Australia just two years ago, WA now sits at number seven, above only struggling Tasmania.
15 Sep 2016
Four economic postcards from the US
Mark Rider | Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Wealth
In the middle of the most volatile presidential election in a generation, the global gaze on the United States of America has rarely been so intense. Inevitably, this will affect the economy but what is going on behind the headlines and controversy?
14 Sep 2016
How the rising sun shines on the long white cloud
Grant Knuckey | Chief Executive Officer, Japan, ANZ
For at least the last five years, the discussion around foreign investment in New Zealand has focused on China. It’s not surprising given over that period Chinese (including Hong Kong SAR) direct investment into the country has increased fivefold, from a cumulative total of about $NZ1 billion in 2010 to well over $NZ5 billion in 2015.
14 Sep 2016
China has mortgage issues, not a property bubble
Raymond Yeung | Chief Economist Greater China, ANZ
Whether China has a property bubble is an academic debate. The bottom line is the odds for a prolonged property slump are low on the back of urbanisation and the end of the deflationary threat.