ANZ Research had thought the easing of the mortgage serviceability floor would be at least partly offset by other tightening measures such as the updated Household Expenditure Measure (HEM) and the introduction of comprehensive credit reporting. But that has not been the case.
ANZ Research does, though, see credit conditions remaining tighter than they were pre-Royal Commission. And this is likely to constrain the eventual pickup in prices.
Meanwhile, declines in house prices over the past few years have improved a range of affordability measures. The recent sharp turnaround in prices though will ultimately reduce affordability - in Sydney and Melbourne in particular. Average loan sizes for first home buyers are higher than ever.