Regional export growth, though volatile, has been trending weaker after peaking in early 2018. Global trade forecasts suggest further moderation in 2019.
"More recent consensus earnings forecasts have been pared down and are directionally in sync with the anticipated course of the business cycle.”
The technology cycle is also past its prime as global semiconductor sales, the best barometer of the cycle, are forecast to grow by less than 5 per cent after two consecutive years of double-digit growth.
Slower growth in 2019 is, however, a consensus view. To ANZ Research, the more relevant developments will be the relative growth differential with the US and the consistency between consensus earnings forecasts and the evolution of the business cycle.
This slowdown will have a bearing on the region’s export performance. Electronics exports have been the mainstay of overall export performance of several regional economies.
Slower growth in China and tighter global liquidity are additional headwinds but as they have already played out to considerable extent, their impact on regional growth should be incremental.