08 Jun 2023
Winter is coming for the agri commodity price cycle
Michael Whitehead |
As Australia’s agricultural sector heads into the winter period, ANZ’s agri infocus assesses an autumn for the price cycle.
Commodities
17 Mar 2023
China ore bust?
Prof James Laurenceson | Director, Australia-China Relations Institute, UTS
The story is Australia is diversifying trade across Asia. The reality is reliance on China is as strong as ever.
06 Sep 2022
Feeding the world sustainably
Soni Kumari, Susan Kilsby and Daniel Hynes | Commodity Strategist, Agriculture Economist & Senior Commodities Strategist, ANZ
The opportunities in the agricultural sector are enormous, but population growth, environmental challenges and climate change mean it needs to be done in a more sustainable way.
25 Aug 2022
PODCAST: twin threats for global commodities markets
Brett Foley | Managing Editor, bluenotes
Inflation and conflict have roiled commodity markets. What does it mean for investors? ANZ’s commodities strategist Daniel Hynes explains.
14 Apr 2022
The Vault: gold still a geopolitical safe haven
Daniel Hynes, Soni Kumari & Dhiraj Nim | Senior Commodities Analyst, Commodities Strategist & Economist/FX Strategist, ANZ
In the midst of twin crises - pandemic and war - gold remains a good hedge against uncertainty
25 Jan 2022
IN CHARTS: commodities navigate supply risks
Daniel Hynes, Soni Kumari & Dhiraj Nim | Senior Commodities Analyst, Commodities Strategist & Economist/FX Strategist, ANZ
A range of supply disruptions are threatening to blow commodities such as energy off course in 2022.
08 Sep 2021
Rural land prices: finding the right fertiliser for growth
Mark Bennett | Head of Aus Agribusiness, ANZ
Growth in rural land prices is increasing at huge pace. But what is actually causing this surge and can it be sustained?
20 Jul 2021
Aus farmland brimming at the highs
Mark Bennett | Head of Aus Agribusiness, ANZ
Australian farmland prices have been surging as commodity prices go from strength-to-strength and demand remains high.
08 Dec 2020
The outlook for Australian agri in 2021
Mark Bennett & Madeleine Swan | Head of Agribusiness & Associate Director Agri Research, ANZ
Australia’s agri industry had a surprisingly strong year in 2020 despite fires, drought and a global pandemic. The outlook for next year too is positive.
26 Oct 2020
More than a grain of hope as winter crops begin harvest
Mark Bennett & Madeleine Swan | Head of Agribusiness & Associate Director Agri Research, ANZ
As harvesters fan out across Australian paddocks, the outlook is bright for an industry strongly rebounding from prolonged drought, COVID-19 and bushfires.
22 Oct 2020
Here comes the rain again
Daniel Hynes, Soni Kumari & Dhiraj Nim | Senior Commodities Analyst, Commodities Strategist & Economist/FX Strategist, ANZ
An incoming La Niña weather system could have a sizeable impact on supply and demand across a range of commodities.
04 Sep 2020
Focusing on future agri opportunity
Michael Whitehead & Madeleine Swan | Director Client Insights, ANZ and Associate Director Agribusiness Research, ANZ
Although Australia’s agriculture industry has continued to perform well throughout the pandemic, foreign investment may not be so steady.
07 Aug 2020
LONGREAD: the minerals critical for new energy, new technologies, the future
Catherine Birch & Soni Kumari | Senior Economist & Commodities Strategist, ANZ
Major opportunities exist for Australia to take a lead in producing and processing critical minerals.
03 Aug 2020
Australian grains remain competitive in crisis
Michael Whitehead & Viveka Manikonda | Head of Agri Insights and Senior Associate, Institutional at ANZ
Despite global headwinds, Australia’s grains industry is predicting a bumper crop in the next harvest.
10 Mar 2020
Aurum: the golden ages
Georgia Nowak & Eugene Perepletchikov | Artists & Producers, Aurum
The history of gold is embedded in societies across the world. But the commodity’s complexity shows its true richness.
21 Jan 2020
Commodities in 2020: changing winds
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
Increased focus on environmental issues will have a noticeable impact on commodity markets in 2020.
09 Sep 2019
Australia’s economy: boom or bust?
Alan Mitchell | Columnist, bluenotes
According to the headlines, Australia’s economy is despairing. But is it all as bad as it seems?
26 Jul 2018
Australia’s red card for energy efficiency
Luke Menzel | CEO, Energy Efficiency Council Australia
Two pieces of bad news for Australia in June, one hitting the headlines but the other more worrying for the long term.
12 Jul 2018
bluenotes debate: the renewable future
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
We chat to a panel of experts about the future slate for renewable energy in Australia.
07 Jun 2018
IN CHARTS: the outlook for gold, LNG & oil
Daniel Hynes, Soni Kumari & Dhiraj Nim | Senior Commodities Analyst, Commodities Strategist & Economist/FX Strategist, ANZ
China’s green shift keeps driving LNG demand; gold to return as safe haven.
20 Nov 2017
VIDEO: taking stock on cattle prices
Simone Stella | bluenotes contributor
See insights from key ANZ experts on beef, grains and more in our commodities outlook.
06 Oct 2017
Growth in remote areas helps all: FMG’s Power
Kathleen Jahour | Head of Regional Business Banking WA
Fortescue CEO says partnership with ANZ will help remote communities meet needs of surrounding industry.
12 Sep 2017
Singapore: New Zealand’s open gateway to ASEAN
David Green | CEO Singapore and Head of South East Asia, India & Middle East, ANZ
New Zealand and Singapore have strong economic ties – but their joint ties to the region are vastly greater.
20 Jun 2017
The gilded outlook for gold
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
Asia’s emerging economy means good news for prospectors in the gold market.
26 May 2017
Five key factors in the energy outlook
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
It may seem chaotic but big themes are emerging coal and energy markets.
23 May 2017
What’s powering the lithium boom?
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
Some $A500 million in Chinese investment has seen a sevenfold increase in lithium mines in WA.
20 Apr 2017
Asia-Pacific Perspective: fool’s gold in India?
Tony Walker | Author and Political Analyst
In the Australia-India trading partnership much that glitters is fool’s gold.
06 Apr 2017
Is China’s impossible miracle possible?
Jason Qi | Director in Client Insights and Solutions at ANZ
According to the old wisdom, 2017, the Year of the Rooster on the Chinese horoscope, suggests we can expect to see miracles emerge from seemingly impossible situations.
03 Apr 2017
Oil price forecasts up in the air
Narayanan Somasundaram | Economics & finance reporter
To hedge oil or not to hedge oil is the big question. Rising volatility accentuated by uncertainty on whether there will be an oversupply or shortage of oil is causing many a dilemma to companies for whom oil is a significant input cost.
31 Mar 2017
Five key habits of growing SMEs
Tania Motton | ANZ General Manager, Business Banking Australia
Small businesses are not just the lifeblood of growth in Australia and most economies, delivering true innovation and higher employment, their experiences can offer lessons for businesses of all sizes.
28 Mar 2017
Regional Aus: ready for the Asian trade horizon
Christine Linden | General Manager, Regional Business Banking, ANZ Australia
Agriculture has long been a cornerstone of Australia’s economy. As the sector again surges - or “saves our economic bacon” - after 28 per cent growth in 2016 and high expectations for 2017, we’re again reminded of its key place in our economic mix.
28 Feb 2017
Who turned out the lights on Australia’s energy certainty?
Craig Shortus | Head of Utilities & Infrastructure, ANZ
February’s heatwave in eastern Australia raised more questions about the country’s energy mix and stability. South Australia’s (SA) power system spent more than 30 minutes in an insecure operating state, leaving more than 90,000 residents without power as temperatures reached 42 Celsius.
16 Feb 2017
No, China will not save iron ore
Daniel Hynes | Senior Commodity Strategist, ANZ
Positive sentiment has crept back into iron ore markets amid weaker-than-expected export data from Australia and expectations of Chinese restocking. Our advice is not to get too excited - we still believe China will destock in the post-Lunar New Year period as proposed steel capacity cuts are delayed.
06 Feb 2017
Two sectors facing a new economic global order
Khoon Goh | Head of Asia Research, ANZ
In January Xi Jinping became the first Chinese President to address global political and business leaders at the World Economic Forum, defending free trade and outlining China’s intent to play a greater global role as the United States turns its attention to home soil.
21 Oct 2016
Gold, the shining yellow: an Indian perspective
Tarun Gulabani | Senior Relationship Manager, ANZ
India is a country with 1.25 billion people and a large savings culture. It may be a broad generalisation that Asians are big savers but Indians live up to the reputation. And they save in different assets to elsewhere in Asia – particularly in gold.
27 Sep 2016
Is responsible mining the answer to the commodities downturn?
Dr Sara Bice | Professor, University Melbourne School of Government
Mining giant BHP Billiton announced the largest loss in its history in August. The $US6.4 billion decline came on the back of declining commodity prices, falling Chinese demand for iron ore and $US2.2 billion in after-tax costs. The financial figures are alarming.
31 Mar 2016
The other impending oil crisis
Alex Kewley | Director, Client Insights & Solutions, ANZ
While most eyes are focussed on the macroeconomic imbalance causing pushing oil prices below $US40 a barrel, elsewhere the real crisis for oil is accelerating with the adoption of autonomous electric vehicles.
21 Mar 2016
The digital future of food
Mara Bun | Company director, consultant & moderator, Tallebudgera Valley
Remember the days when newspapers and TV decided what was news and consumers responded accordingly? Just as the news value chain splintered into a world where people create and share media, the food industry also confronts a changing landscape.
04 Mar 2016
Germination in Aus grain industry
Christine Linden | General Manager, Regional Business Banking, ANZ Australia
The resurgence of rural and regional Australia is real. We are seeing fresh evidence of renewed confidence almost every week.
02 Mar 2016
The five meatiest grains themes for 2016
Mark Bennett | Head of Aus Agribusiness, ANZ
Australia's grains industry is fundamental to the agribusiness sector. Not only does it create value in its own right but supports revenue growth in domestic and export markets across Australian agribusiness.
22 Feb 2016
Is the iron ore rally a false dawn?
Clyde Russell & Paul Bartholomew | Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist, Thomson Reuters & Senior Managing Editor, Platts
Iron ore, such a significant part of the Asia's Pacific's economy, has rallied over 20 per cent since December lows. So has it really turned the corner? We present insights from two of the region's most-respected experts.
22 Feb 2016
Why agriculture funding is a hard row to hoe
Jan McCallum | Freelance business journalist and former China correspondent
Rural Australia needs capital. Asian investors have an appetite to fund a food boom. It sounds like a perfect match.
02 Feb 2016
Hot food in a market of opportunity
Michael Whitehead | Executive Director for Agribusiness Industry Insights, ANZ
Over the decade to 2013, global investments in the food, beverage and agriculture (FB&A) sectors grew three-fold, topping $US100 billion in 2013. In that time, total return to shareholders of 100 major FB&A companies increased by an average of 17 per cent per annum.
15 Dec 2015
What else is China buying in Australia?
Jerry Ge | BlueNotes contributing editor
The composition of Chinese investment in Australia is changing. Fast.
09 Dec 2015
Commodities brace for tough 2016 in Asia
Mark Pervan & Paul Deane | Former Head of Commodity Research & Former Senior Agriculture Economist, ANZ
The traditional year-end recovery for global commodities remains unlikely in 2015 and the situation in Asia is no different. All signs point to a similarly tough time in 2016.
10 Nov 2015
Sustainable food is big business
Tom Cropper | Freelance Social Enterprise Journalist
First some bad news: it's getting harder and harder for the world to get the stuff it needs. Food, water and natural resources will all be harder to access over the next few decades and, what's worse, almost everyone will be affected somewhere down the line. The answer? Sustainability.
05 Nov 2015
The four waves of Australia's Asian ties
Tim Harcourt | Author, The Airport Economist
Nearly half a century ago, Geoffrey Blainey's The Tyranny of Distance argued Australia's geographic position shaped our psychological attitudes. The long distance between Australia and our colonial forebears in Europe and the United States made us unsure of our future economic prosperity.
07 Oct 2015
The role of banks as the climate changes
Christina Tonkin | Managing Director of Corporate Finance ANZ Institutional
What is the role of a bank in addressing the challenge of climate change? Is it to support government policies? Or should banks be doing more to speed up the transition to a low-carbon economy by prioritising the financing of low or zero-emission technologies that have the potential to disrupt traditional models of emissions-intensive energy generation?
11 Sep 2015
How to stay the course on China
Leonie Lethbridge | CEO Cambodia, ANZ
The volatility across global markets and data out of China has unsettled many across the region. While the much-feared 'China Syndrome' is a fanciful worst-case scenario for many, what is happening in the Asian giant today is not the catastrophe many believe.
21 Aug 2015
NZ's craft brewers go froth and multiply
Pete Barnao | BlueNotes contributing editor
Something special is brewing in New Zealand's craft beer industry. Demand for distinctive, quality beer is bubbling over at home but also growing abroad at a rate unimaginable a few years ago.
31 Jul 2015
The future of intra-Asia investment
Kevin Plumberg | Senior Editor at The Economist Intelligence Unit
There's a big shift in inter-regional investment on the horizon in Asia. Economic relationships between regional neighbours are poised to become even stronger but remarkably different in the years ahead driven by increased private-sector activity.
23 Jul 2015
Prepare for the LNG boom
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
Spiralling global demand has Australia facing a boom in its gas market similar to the ones seen in other commodities in past years, according to ANZ's head of commodity research, which could see LNG overtake iron ore as the main driver of Australia's exports in the export stakes and help push Australia's trade balance back toward the black.
01 Jul 2015
The future of free trade with Australia
Lisa McAuley | CEO, Export Council of Australia
When it comes to trade, the world is getting smaller. A spate of free trade deals between Australia and its Asian neighbours is linking economies and opening up avenues for commerce like never before and there's more action on the horizon.
09 Jun 2015
Unravelling the Asian textile supply chain
Mark Ganz | Director Client Insights, ANZ
The Australian textile industry is at a vital turning point. With up to 70 per cent of Australia's retailers now sourcing directly from overseas, understanding the upstream dynamics of fabrication and distribution have never been so important.
01 Jun 2015
Latin America key for Asia resources
Jose Blanco | Former Chief Executive, Banco Santander Australia
It seemed to take many by surprise during the recent fracas over iron ore pricing that China was negotiating directly with Brazilian iron ore giant Vale to build alternative supply. It shouldn't have. For a country like Australia which rightly sees itself as a part of the Asian century, the lack of insight around Latin America's role is a critical oversight.
25 May 2015
BlueNotes Podcast: Four signs an ASEAN boom is on the horizon
Glenn Maguire & Tammy Medard | Former Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific & Head of Diversified Industrials and Global Subsidiaries, ANZ
South East Asia is on the cusp of a boom as the ASEAN region looks set to emerge as not just a production hub but a domestic consumption hub as well. At ANZ, we think ASEAN will become as important for the global economy and for Australia and New Zealand over the next decade as China is now.
18 Mar 2015
Gold in the Asian Century
Warren Hogan & Victor Thianpiriya | Former Chief Economist & Former Commodity Strategist, ANZ
Gold, for centuries the object of fascination and desire, a store of wealth and bedazzling jewellery, has had a wild ride in the last decade and particularly recent years. In the long term though, according to a new report by ANZ Research 'East to El Dorado: Asia and the future of gold', it will continue to glitter.
25 Feb 2015
Australia’s major project spend in decline
Dylan Eades & Justin Fabo | Former Researchers, ANZ
The outlook for major project development in Australia has deteriorated, further evidence of a declining resource sector investment phase but also broader factors, notably lower commodity prices and a slower than expected pick-up in non-resource business investment.
11 Feb 2015
ANZ lowers iron ore forecasts below $US60
Mark Pervan | Former Head of Commodities Research, ANZ
Deteriorating conditions in the iron ore market have forced ANZ to lower its forecasts on the commodity to more normalised levels of below $US60 a tonne in 2015, taking almost a quarter from its previous expectations of $US77.
23 Jan 2015
New era of business opportunity for India-Australia enterprise
Subhas DeGamia | Former CEO India, ANZ
At the ABWI, I heard one phrase repeated frequently: India has some key requirements and, for most, Australia has the resources and capability to meet and supply.
09 Dec 2014
Asian tiger, hidden treasure: Taiwan’s green success
Tim Harcourt | Author, The Airport Economist
In some countries, the issues of climate and economics are treated entirely separately, divorced from one another except insofar as finance is required to fund environmental initiatives.
05 Dec 2014
How the Shanghai FTZ is changing trade
Mark Yang | Branch manager, ANZ
Chinese officials in Shanghai, the largest city in the world’s rising financial behemoth, have made no secret their desire for the region to become a global trading hub. Shanghai has a stated goal of becoming a major global centre for finance, commodity trading and shipping by 2020. A key part of its answer to this has been the Shanghai Free Trade Zone.
12 Nov 2014
Iron ore will never recover former peaks
Shane White | Content Manager, Institutional, ANZ
If the iron ore market wasn’t tough enough already, there’s a new forecast out that will have mining executives turning in their sleep: iron will never pass the key $US100 a tonne threshold again.
07 Nov 2014
Commodity price falls unappreciated boon for ASEAN policy makers
ANZ Research |
Asian policy makers stand to benefit from commodity price disinflation as food and energy prices are plumbing the lowest levels since the great commodity inflation of 2005-08. They have their first opportunity to fundamentally revisit and unwind inefficient policies which effectively tax the allocative efficiency of their economies.
24 Oct 2014
Why iron ore prices are in the pits
Mark Pervan | Former Head of Commodities Research, ANZ
15 Oct 2014
The key challenges facing a new Indonesia
Daniel Wilson | Markets Economist, ANZ
In late October, Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo will be inaugurated as the seventh President of Indonesia. The island archipelago of 252 million people, spanning the distance of New York to Alaska, is at an economic crossroad and his presidency could well prove to be a defining moment in Indonesia’s economic history.
09 Oct 2014
Inflation still a challenge for Modi: ANZ Research
Glenn Maguire & Devika Mehndiratta | Former ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific & Former economist, ANZ
The lack of ‘big bang’ reforms initiated by the new Modi government in India means the price of food and other goods is unlikely to come down. Without a majority in the upper house of the Indian parliament, the government is only able to deal only with ‘low hanging fruit’, and even then, these smaller scale reforms will take time to progress. More significant issues such as food supply and distribution will have to wait.
05 Sep 2014
Phil Ruthven: Five things to think about Asia
Phil Ruthven | Futurist and Founder, IBIS
Futurist and IBIS Founder Phil Ruthven gave ANZ’s Opportunity Asia Insight Series function in Melbourne five critical insights
05 Sep 2014
Should you be worried about the iron ore price?
ANZ Research |
National accounts data revealed this week that growth in the Australian economy slowed in the second quarter, following strong growth earlier this year.
29 Aug 2014
Transition to a non-mining Australian economy on track
ANZ Research |
The handover of growth from mining to other areas of the Australian economy looks on track with this week’s CAPEX report providing more good news on this front.
01 Aug 2014
Huge China ag demand key to new Aus-China brand
Michael Whitehead | Executive Director for Agribusiness Industry Insights, ANZ
Mining magnate and philanthropist Andrew Forrest has long had an interest – now commercial – in re-energising Australia’s agricultural potential, particularly given the “food bowl to Asia” goal.
23 Jun 2014
New Zealand’s Bull – or Cow – Rush
Andrew Cornell | Past Managing Editor, bluenotes
In the huge produce hall at Fieldays in Hamilton New Zealand, the southern hemisphere’s largest agricultural trade fair, a sausage and small goods maker was lamenting how difficult he was finding it to secure supplies of top quality beef and lamb.
05 Jun 2014
What happens once the Tiger is out of the cage?
Deloitte Crowd Source |
Deloitte has one of the most social media active workforces in the region. Using Yammer, the firm responded to ANZ insight 5 “Caged Tiger: The Transformation of the Asian Financial System”. BlueNotes has distilled some fascinating – and quite out there – forecasts of what will happen when the world’s financial axis tilts towards Asia...
02 Jun 2014
Opportunities for ANZ remain strong in China
Amanda Gome | Former head of digital and social media, ANZ
Opportunities for ANZ remain strong in China
12 May 2014
Much more than a quarry to Australia’s business landscape
Catherine Welch | Researcher, The University of Sydney Business School
Mining companies deliver 54 per cent of Australia’s goods exports by value, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). But those same statistics show that these miners represent only 1 per cent of the number of Australian goods exporters.
09 May 2014
How Aussie farmers can find the Food Bowl
David McKinna | Principal, MCKINNA
There is an apparent disconnect between the optimism around the Asian dining boom and the pessimism of many Australian farmers, at least as it is portrayed in the media.
24 Mar 2014
Unleash the Tiger
ANZ Corporate Communications |
A more rapid and broader development of financial markets in Asia is increasingly important to support economic growth in the region. ANZ Research projects 10 key Asian economies will together come to dominate global finance. The importance of Europe and the US will shrink. That will mean the emergence of multiple financial centres, increasingly sophisticated financial products and firms which invest in them. Asia will increasingly finance Asia. ANZ estimates the region’s financial system could be as large as $US200 trillion by 2030. This would make it about four times the current size of the Asian financial system and more than twice as big as we project the US financial system to be in 2030.
13 Mar 2014
From wet market to supermarket
Tania Motton | ANZ General Manager, Business Banking Australia
China’s sprawling “wet” markets dominate the sales of fresh produce – but they are not where the opportunity for primary producers lay. Growing wealth is sending Chinese shoppers to supermarkets. Packaging, distribution and marketing are critical challenges if Australian and New Zealand companies want to grow their role in “feeding the dragon”. As a China-Australia Free Trade Agreement becomes more likely, new strategies are required.
19 Oct 2012
'Greener Pastures'
ANZ Corporate Communications |
The third report in the ANZ insight series, ‘Greener Pastures: The Global Soft Commodity Opportunity for Australia and New Zealand’ was released in October, 2012.
06 Oct 2012
'Quality Matters'
ANZ Corporate Communications |
The second report in the ANZ insight series, ‘Quality Matters: A Progress Report on Australia’s Natural Resources Export Opportunity’ was released on 6 October 2012. The report provides an update on Australia’s progress in capturing the commodity opportunity created by a developing Asia. It follows the release in 2011 of the first ANZ insight report, ‘Earth, Fire, Wind and Water: Economic Opportunities and the Australian Commodities Cycle.’
02 Aug 2011
'Earth, Fire, Wind and Water'
ANZ Corporate Communications |
The first report in the ANZ insight series, ‘Earth, Fire, Wind and Water: Economic Opportunities and the Australian Commodities Cycle' was released in September 2011.
Digging in to dirty data
Helen Clark | Freelance journalist & former Asian correspondent
The cult of analytics seems a million miles removed from dirt, but data management is being used to map and categorise soil in the hope it will lead to greater food security, better soil health and long-term benefit to the global agriculture sector.